Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters PDF
Preview Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters
Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters Hazards and Disasters Series Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters Volume 2 Series Editor John F. Shroder Emeritus Professor ofGeography and Geology Department ofGeography and Geology University of Nebraska atOmaha Omaha,NE 68182 Volume Editor Paolo Papale IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicae Vulcanologia Pisa, Italy Elsevier Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,Netherlands TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UnitedKingdom 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates Copyright©2021ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans, electronicormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformationstorageand retrievalsystem,withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Detailsonhowtoseek permission,furtherinformationaboutthePublisher’spermissionspoliciesandourarrangements withorganizationssuchastheCopyrightClearanceCenterandtheCopyrightLicensingAgency,can befoundatourwebsite:www.elsevier.com/permissions. Thisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyrightbythe Publisher(otherthanasmaybenotedherein). Notices Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchandexperience broadenourunderstanding,changesinresearchmethods,professionalpractices,ormedical treatmentmaybecomenecessary. Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgeinevaluating andusinganyinformation,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribedherein.Inusingsuch informationormethodstheyshouldbemindfuloftheirownsafetyandthesafetyofothers, includingpartiesforwhomtheyhaveaprofessionalresponsibility. Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,oreditors, assumeanyliabilityforanyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatterofproducts liability,negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuseoroperationofanymethods,products, instructions,orideascontainedinthematerialherein. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress BritishLibraryCataloguing-in-PublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN:978-0-12-818082-2 ForinformationonallElsevierpublications visitourwebsiteathttps://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals Publisher:CandiceJanco AcquisitionsEditor:AmyShapiro EditorialProjectManager:LenaSparks ProductionProjectManager:JoyChristel NeumarinHonestThangiah CoverDesigner:ChristianJ.Bilbow TypesetbySPiGlobal,India Contributors Numbersinparenthesesindicatethepagesonwhichtheauthors’contributionsbegin. AgudeloRestrepoAdriana(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey—Volcanologicaland SeismologicalPopaya´nObservatory,Bogota,Colombia Narva´ezZun˜igaAndr(cid:1)es(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey—Volcanologicaland SeismologicalPopaya´nObservatory,Bogota,Colombia A´lvaroAravena(239),DipartimentodiScienzedellaTerra,Universita` diFirenze, Florence,Italy M(cid:1)endezFajuryRicardoArturo(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey— VolcanologicalandSeismologicalManizalesObservatory,Bogota,Colombia JoelC.Bandibas(565),GeologicalSurveyofJapan,AIST,Tsukuba,Japan S(cid:1)ebastienBiass(329,473),EarthObservatoryofSingapore,NanyangTechnological University,Singapore,Singapore CostanzaBonadonna(329),DepartmentofEarthSciences,UniversityofGeneva, Geneva,Switzerland R.Caldero´n(617),SchoolofEarthandEnvironment,UniversityofCanterbury, Christchurch,NewZealand C.Cardona(617),SERNAGEOMIN,ObsevatorioVolcanolo´gicodelosAndesdelSur, Temuco,Chile RaffaelloCioni(285),EarthSciencesDepartment,UniversityofFlorence,Florence, Italy Mattiade0 MichieliVitturi(239),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia, SezionediPisa,Pisa,Italy E.DelBello(379),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Rome,Italy MarieEdmonds(117),EarthSciencesDepartment,UniversityofCambridge, Cambridge,UnitedKingdom F.Flores(617),SERNAGEOMIN,RedNacionaldeVigilanciaVolca´nica,Santiago, Chile D.Gaudin(379),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Rome,Italy;Ludwig MaximiliansUniversit€at,Munich,Germany ChrisE.Gregg(329),DepartmentofEarthSciences,UniversityofGeneva,Geneva, Switzerland;DepartmentofGeosciences,EastTennesseeStateUniversity,Johnson City,TN,UnitedStates xv xvi Contributors MasatoIguchi(635),KyotoUniversity,DisasterPreventionResearchInstitute, SakurajimaVolcanoResearchCenter,Kagoshima,Japan SusannaJenkins(473),EarthObservatoryofSingapore;AsianSchoolofthe Environment,NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,Singapore,Singapore Castan˜oVascoLeidyJohana(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey—Volcanological andSeismologicalManizalesObservatory,Bogota,Colombia JackieE.Kendrick(153),Earth,OceanandEcologicalSciences,Universityof Liverpool,Liverpool,UnitedKingdom DavidLallemant(473),EarthObservatoryofSingapore;AsianSchoolofthe Environment,NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,Singapore,Singapore L.E.Lara(617),SERNAGEOMIN;CIGIDEN,ResearchCenterforintegratedDisaster RiskManagement,Santiago,Chile YanLavall(cid:1)ee(153),Earth,OceanandEcologicalSciences,UniversityofLiverpool, Liverpool,UnitedKingdom TianNingLim(473),AsianSchooloftheEnvironment,NanyangTechnological University,Singapore,Singapore IvanLokmer(25),SchoolofEarthSciences,UniversityCollegeDublin,Dublin,Ireland CalvacheVelascoMartaLuc´ıa(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey—Geohazard Direction,Bogota,Colombia MonsalveBustamanteMar´ıaLuisa(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey— VolcanologicalandSeismologicalManizalesObservatory,Bogota,Colombia WarnerMarzocchi(545),UniversityofNaplesFedericoII,DepartmentofEarth, EnvironmentalandResourcesScience,Napoli,Italy Go´mezMart´ınezDiegoMauricio(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey— VolcanologicalandSeismologicalPastoObservatory,Bogota,Colombia Lo´pezV(cid:1)elezCristia´nMauricio(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey—Volcanological andSeismologicalManizalesObservatory,Bogota,Colombia SciraMenoni(329),DepartmentofEarthSciences,UniversityofGeneva,Geneva, Switzerland;DepartmentofArchitecture,BuiltEnvironmentandConstruction Engineering,PolitecnicodiMilano,Milan,Italy C.DanMiller(493),VolcanoDisasterAssistanceProgram,U.S.GeologicalSurvey, Vancouver,WA,UnitedStates ChristopherG.Newhall(493),VolcanoDisasterAssistanceProgram,U.S.Geological Survey,Vancouver,WA,UnitedStates JohnS.Pallister(493),VolcanoDisasterAssistanceProgram,U.S.GeologicalSurvey, Vancouver,WA,UnitedStates Narva´ezObandoPaola(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey—Volcanologicaland SeismologicalPastoObservatory,Bogota,Colombia PaoloPapale(1,545),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Pisa,Italy Contributors xvii Cort(cid:1)esJim(cid:1)enezGloriaPatricia(585),ColombianGeologicalSurvey—Volcanological andSeismologicalManizalesObservatory,Bogota,Colombia MarcoPistolesi(285),EarthSciencesDepartment,UniversityofPisa,Pisa,Italy MichaelP.Poland(75),U.S.GeologicalSurvey,CascadesVolcanoObservatory, Vancouver,WA,UnitedStates MassimoPompilio(285),INGV,NationalInstituteofGeophysicsandVolcanology, SectionofPisa,Pisa,Italy T.Ricci(379),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Rome,Italy DmitriRouwet(439),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Sezionedi Bologna,Bologna,Italy GilbertoSaccorotti(25),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Pisa,Italy LauraSandri(545),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Bologna,Italy BrunoScaillet(285),ISTO,InstituteofEarthSciencesOrl(cid:1)eans,CNRS-University ofOrl(cid:1)eans-BRGM,Orl(cid:1)eans,France P.Scarlato(379),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Rome,Italy JacopoSelva(545),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Bologna,Italy FreysteinnSigmundsson(413),NordicVolcanologicalCenter,InstituteofEarth Sciences,UniversityofIceland,Reykjavik,Iceland L.Spina(379),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Rome,Italy J.Taddeucci(379),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Rome,Italy ShinjiTakarada(565),GeologicalSurveyofJapan,AIST,Tsukuba,Japan P-YTournigand(379),IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Rome,Italy GeorgeWilliams(473),EarthObservatoryofSingapore;AsianSchoolofthe Environment,NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,Singapore,Singapore Sang-HoYun(473),JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology, Pasadena,CA,UnitedStates ElskedeZeeuw-vanDalfsen(75),RoyalNetherlandsMeteorologicalInstitute(KNMI), R&DDepartmentofSeismologyandAcoustics,DeBilt,Netherlands Preface Hazardsandrisksrelatedtoactivevolcanoesdirectlyinvolvesome800million peoplethroughouttheworld,includingbigcitiesandhighlyindustrializedareas inJapan,Italy,NewZealand,andmanyothercountries.Famousvolcanoeslike Etna and Sakurajima dominating the landscape of Catania and Kagoshima, respectively, and regularly covering them with volcanic ash, Vesuvius and CampiFlegreisurroundingNaples,KrakatauintheSundaStrait,Yellowstone inWyoming,UnitedStates,andmanyothers,constantlyremindusofthepower of Nature and the need for ustocoexist with it. Understandingvolcanoesandvolcanicprocesses,monitoringvolcanoesand volcanicareas,forecastingvolcanichazards,andsupportingcivilauthoritiesin themanagementofvolcaniccrises,isthedifficultendeavorbyvolcanologists fromallovertheworld,andonethatisconstantlyandrapidlyprogressing.Itis difficult,asthevolcanicprocessesarehighlynonlinearandasubstantialpartof them is hidden from direct observation, making the forecasts often highly uncertain. And it is constantly and rapidly progressing, as new technologies increasingly allow additional measurements and better accuracy for existing ones, newmodelsdiscloseadditionalaspectsofthephysicsrelatedtomagma motionand volcaniceruptions,new ideas create novelopportunities formore advanced science, and increasing levels of international cooperation lead to improvedstandardsforvolcanosurveillanceandhazardforecasts,andoverall for the scientific management ofvolcaniccrises. This2ndvolumeofVolcanicHazards,Risks,andDisastersfollowsthefirst onepublishedin2015.WhenIwasproposedtoeditanewvolumeonthesame generaltopic,Ibrieflyreviewedthecontentsinthe2015book.Comparedtothe rateofscientificproduction,afewyearscanbeasignificanttime;however,I foundthe2015volumetobegenerallyupdatedandstillavalidreference.Atthe sametime,newlypublishedresults,additionalaspectsrelatedtovolcanichaz- ardsandrisks,andtheflourishingdiscussiononthemethodsandissuesrelated tothemanagementofvolcaniccrises,ledmetotheconclusionthataneweffort wasmorethanjustified.Thisvolume,whichcollectsthecontributesofscien- tists who areinternational renown leaders intheir respectivefields,should be regardedasacomplementtothe2015volumemorethanjustanupdate.Inthis spiritwehaveagreedtotermitthe“2ndvolume,”ratherthan“2ndedition,”as we believe that the two volumes together provide a compendium of science, technology, open issues, and debate related to Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disastersintheseconddecadeofthe21stcentury,projectingintothethirdone. xix xx Preface Withrespecttothepreviousvolume,themethodsandproblemsrelatedtothe scienceofvolcanoesthatarecentralforinterpretingmonitoringdataandobser- vationsandforforecastingvolcanichazardsaretreatedherewithsubstantially increaseddetail.Inaddition,examplesofmultidisciplinaryapplicationstovol- canicemergenciesandvolcanicforecastsareprovided.Chapter1introducesthe issues and challenges related to volcanic hazard forecasts, including those relatedtotherolesofscientistsandthebestpracticesduringvolcanicemergen- cies. Chapters 2–7 review the scientific methods employed for understanding volcanoesandforecastingtheirevolution,includingthosebasedonseismicity (Chapter 2), geodesy (Chapter 3), geochemistry (Chapter 4), experimental volcanology(Chapter5),numericalmodeling(Chapter6),andfieldandlabo- ratoryanalysis(Chapter7).Chapter8dealswiththerisksassociatedwithdis- persionandaccumulationoftephrafromexplosiveeruptions,whileChapters9 and 10 take into consideration mildly explosive and effusive eruptions from basaltic volcanoes. Chapter 11 is dedicated to the dynamics of volcanic lakes and their associated hazards. Chapter 12 describes the application of remote sensingtoassesstheimpactsthatresultfromtheinteractionbetweenvolcanic processesandsocietalassets.Chapters13and14dealwiththedifficultissues related to managing the scientific aspects of volcanic crises: the former ana- lyses the problem of getting organized with the myriad of tasks that must be accomplished at a volcano observatory before, during, and after a volcanic crisis; the latter explores the roles of scientists and the drawbacks of an unclear distinction between the processes of scientific analysis and decision making.Finally,Chapters15–18illustraterelevanteffortsindealingwithvol- canic hazards and risks in Asia and Latin America, from volcano emergency planning to web-based information systems to raising awareness among the populations at risk. Paolo Papale Volume Editor Chapter 1 Some relevant issues in volcanic hazard forecasts and management of volcanic crisis Paolo Papale IstitutoNazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Pisa,Italy 1 Introduction Thereareabout800millionpeopleallovertheworldwhoareexposedtothe hazards from volcanic eruptions, according to the 2015 Global Assessment Report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR, 2015). That assessment takes into account typical impact areas around volca- noes,extendinguptotensofkm,andinafewcases,tomorethan100kmfrom the vent. People within such areas live under direct menace from a variety of hazardousvolcanicphenomena:lavaflows,pyroclasticflows,volcanicashcon- centrationsandaccumulation,lahars,tsunamis,landslidesandcollapsesofthe volcanic structure, ground deformation, ground shaking, harmful gas concen- trations, etc. Notably, the sources of volcanic hazards, and the kinds of risks they involve, are many, in contrast with earthquakes for which the direct risk ismostlyassociatedwithgroundshaking(e.g.,Boore,2003),eventhoughother kindsofhazardouseventsmaynotbeneglected(e.g.,surfacefaultingandliq- uefaction, Wesnousky, 2008;tsunamis, Fujiiet al., 2011;etc.). Besidespure scientific curiosity,volcanicrisksare asubstantialdriver for volcano-relatedresearch.Ononeside,scientistsstrivetodescribewithincreas- ing accuracy several aspects of the volcano dynamics thatcan help anticipate volcaniceruptionsanddescribethespace-timeevolutionofvolcanicphenom- ena. On the other side, much of the volcano-related discussion concerns the rolesofscientistsduringvolcaniccrises,andtheparadigmsforefficientinter- action and appropriate communication with the stakeholders and the society. Underthe dualimpulsefromscientificunderstandingandcivil defense appli- cations, volcano science has been progressingquicklyduring the last decades and years. Only 30 years ago volcanology was still, dominantly, a branch of geology.Todayitisafullymultidisciplinarysciencewherebytheapproaches ForecastingandPlanningforVolcanicHazards,Risks,andDisasters https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818082-2.00001-9 Copyright©2021ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. 1
The list of books you might like
