Floods in a Changing Climate: Hydrologic Modeling PDF
Preview Floods in a Changing Climate: Hydrologic Modeling
more information - www.cambridge.org/9781107018761 FloodsinaChangingClimate HydrologicModeling Hydrologic modeling of floods enables more accurate assessment of climate change impacts onfloodmagnitudesandfrequencies.Thisbooksynthesizesvariousmodelingmethodologies available to aid planning and operational decision-making, with emphasis on methodologies applicableindata-scarceregions,suchasdevelopingcountries.Topicscoveredinclude:physical processes that transform precipitation into flood runoff, flood routing, assessment of likely changesinfloodfrequenciesandmagnitudesunderclimatechangescenarios,anduseofremote sensing,GIS,andDEMtechnologiesinmodelingoffloodstoaiddecision-making.Problems includedineachchapter,andsupportedbylinkstoavailableonlinedatasetsandmodelingtools accessible at www.cambridge.org/mujumdar, engage the reader with practical applications of themodels. This is an important resource for academic researchers in the fields of hydrology, climate change,andenvironmentalscienceandhazards,andwillalsobeinvaluabletoprofessionalsand policy-makersworkinginhazardmitigation,remotesensing,andhydrologicengineering. ThisvolumeisthesecondinacollectionoffourbookswithintheInternationalHydrology Series on flooddisaster managementtheory and practice within the context ofanthropogenic climatechange.Theotherbooksare: 1–FloodsinaChangingClimate:ExtremePrecipitationbyRameshTeegavarapu 2–FloodsinaChangingClimate:InundationModellingbyGiulianoDiBaldassarre 3–FloodsinaChangingClimate:RiskManagementbySlodobanSimonovic´ P. P.MujumdarisaProfessorintheDepartmentofCivilEngineeringattheIndianInstitute ofScience(IISc),Bangalore,India,andholdsanAssociateFacultypositionintheDivechaCenter forClimateChangeatIIScBangalore.HeisalsoChairmanoftheWaterResourcesManagement CommitteeoftheInternationalAssociationforHydro-EnvironmentResearch(IAHR).Professor Mujumdar’sareaofspecializationiswaterresourceswithafocusonclimatechangeimpacts thatincludesdownscalinganduncertaintymodeling.Healsoworksasaprofessionalconsultant acrossareasincludingfloodplainmanagement,reservoiroperation,urbanstormwaterdrainage, liftirrigation,andhydropowerdevelopment.HeisaDistinguishedVisitingFellowoftheRoyal AcademyofEngineering,UK,andiscurrentlyamemberoftheEditorialBoardofthejournal AdvancesinWaterResources. D. Nagesh Kumar is a Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at the Indian InstituteofScience(IISc),Bangalore,India,andholdsanAssociateFacultypositionintheCenter forEarthSciences.HisprimaryresearchareasincludeapplicationsofremotesensingandGISin hydrologicmodeling,softcomputing,hydrologicteleconnections,andwaterresourcessystems. ProfessorKumaralsoworksinprofessionalconsultancyinareassuchasriverbasinplanning and management, flood routing, downscaling for climate change projections, and reservoir operation.HeiscurrentlyanAssociateEditoroftheJournalofHydrologicEngineering. INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGY SERIES TheInternationalHydrologicalProgramme(IHP)wasestablishedbytheUnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganization (UNESCO)in1975asthesuccessortotheInternationalHydrologicalDecade.Thelong-termgoaloftheIHPistoadvanceourunderstanding ofprocessesoccurringinthewatercycleandtointegratethisknowledgeintowaterresourcesmanagement.TheIHPistheonlyUNscienceand educationalprogrammeinthefieldofwaterresources,andoneofitsoutputshasbeenasteadystreamoftechnicalandinformationdocuments aimedatwaterspecialistsanddecision-makers. TheInternationalHydrologySerieshasbeendevelopedbytheIHPincollaborationwithCambridgeUniversityPressasamajorcollectionof researchmonographs,synthesisvolumes,andgraduatetextsonthesubjectofwater.Authoritativeandinternationalinscope,thevariousbooks withintheseriesallcontributetotheaimsoftheIHPinimprovingscientificandtechnicalknowledgeoffresh-waterprocesses,inproviding researchknow-howandinstimulatingtheresponsiblemanagementofwaterresources. editorial advisory board SecretarytotheAdvisoryBoard MrShabhazKhanDivisionofWaterScience,UNESCO,IrueMiollis,Paris75015,France MembersoftheAdvisoryBoard ProfessorB.P.F.BragaJrCentroTechnolo´gicadeHidra´ulica,Sa˜oPaulo,Brazil ProfessorG.DaganFacultyofEngineering,TelAvivUniversity,Israel DrJ.KhouriWaterResourcesDivision,ArabCentreforStudiesofAridZonesandDryLands,Damascus,Syria DrG.LeavesleyUSGeologicalSurvey,WaterResourcesDivision,DenverFederalCenter,Colorado,USA DrE.MorrisScottPolarResearchInstitute,Cambridge,UK ProfessorL.OyebandeDepartmentofGeographyandPlanning,UniversityofLagos,Nigeria ProfessorS.SorooshianDepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine,California,USA ProfessorK.TakeuchiDepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,YamanashiUniversity,Japan ProfessorD.E.WallingDepartmentofGeography,UniversityofExeter,UK ProfessorI.WhiteFennerSchoolofEnvironmentandSociety,AustralianNationalUniversity,Canberra,Australia titles in print in this series M.Bonell,M.M.HufschmidtandJ.SGladwellHydrologyandWaterManagementintheHumidTropics:HydrologicalResearchIssuesand StrategiesforWaterManagement Z.W.KundzewiczNewUncertaintyConceptsinHydrologyandWaterResources R.A.FeddesSpaceandTimeScaleVariabilityandInterdependenciesinHydrologicalProcesses J.Gibert,J.MathieuandF.FournierGroundwater/SurfaceWaterEcotones:BiologicalandHydrologicalInteractionsandManagementOptions G.DaganandSNeumanSubsurfaceFlowandTransport:AStochasticApproach J.C.vanDamImpactsofClimateChangeandClimateVariabilityonHydrologicalRegimes D.P.LoucksandJ.S.GladwellSustainabilityCriteriaforWaterResourceSystems J.J.BogardiandZ.W.KundzewiczRisk,Reliability,Uncertainty,andRobustnessofWaterResourceSystems G.KaserandH.OsmastonTropicalGlaciers I.A.ShiklomanovandJ.C.RoddaWorldWaterResourcesattheBeginningoftheTwenty-FirstCentury A.S.IssarClimateChangesduringtheHoloceneandtheirImpactonHydrologicalSystems M.BonellandL.A.BruijnzeelForests,WaterandPeopleintheHumidTropics:Past,PresentandFutureHydrologicalResearchforIntegrated LandandWaterManagement F.GhassemiandI.WhiteInter-BasinWaterTransfer:CaseStudiesfromAustralia,UnitedStates,Canada,ChinaandIndia K.D.W.NandalalandJ.J.BogardiDynamicProgrammingBasedOperationofReservoirs:ApplicabilityandLimits H.S.Wheater,S.SorooshianandK.D.SharmaHydrologicalModellinginAridandSemi-AridAreas J.DelliPriscoliandA.T.WolfManagingandTransformingWaterConflicts H.S.Wheater,S.A.MathiasandX.LiGroundwaterModellinginAridandSemi-AridAreas L.A.Bruijnzeel,F.N.ScatenaandL.S.HamiltonTropicalMontaneCloudForests S.MithenandE.BlackWater,LifeandCivilization:Climate,EnvironmentandSocietyintheJordanValley K.A.DaniellCo-EngineeringandParticipatoryWaterManagement R.TeegavarapuFloodsinaChangingClimate:ExtremePrecipitation P.P.MujumdarandD.NageshKumarFloodsinaChangingClimate:HydrologicModeling G.DiBaldassarreFloodsinaChangingClimate:InundationModelling S.Simonovic´FloodsinaChangingClimate:RiskManagement Floods in a Changing Climate Hydrologic Modeling P. P. Mujumdar and D. Nagesh Kumar IndianInstituteofScience,Bangalore cambridgeuniversitypress Cambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown, Singapore,Sa˜oPaulo,Delhi,MexicoCity CambridgeUniversityPress TheEdinburghBuilding,CambridgeCB28RU,UK PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107018761 (cid:2)C P.P.Mujumdar,D.NageshKumarandUNESCO2012 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2012 PrintedintheUnitedKingdomattheUniversityPress,Cambridge AcatalogrecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationdata Mujumdar,P.P.,1958– Floodsinachangingclimate.Hydrologicmodeling/P.P.Mujumdar,D.NageshKumar. pages cm.–(Internationalhydrologyseries) Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978-1-107-01876-1 1.Hydrologicmodels–Remotesensing. 2.Floodforecasting. 3.Flooddamageprevention. 4.Climaticchanges–Environmentalaspects. I.NageshKumar,D.(Dasika),1963– II.Title. GB656.2.H9M85 2012 511.48(cid:3)9011–dc23 2012015666 ISBN978-1-107-01876-1Hardback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceor accuracyofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredto inthispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuch websitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate. Contents ForewordbyRobertL.Wilby pagevii 4.3 Imagerectification 95 Preface ix 4.4 Imageenhancement 95 Glossary xi 4.5 Imageinformationextraction 101 Listofabbreviations xiii 4.6 Landuse/landcoverinformation 107 4.7 Utilityofremotesensingforhydrologic 1 Introduction 1 modeling 107 1.1 Hydrologicmodels 1 4.8 Demonstrationofimageprocessingusing 1.2 Remotesensingforhydrologicmodeling 2 MATLAB 112 1.3 GISandDEMforhydrologicmodeling 2 4.9 Conclusionsandfuturescope 118 1.4 Assessmentofclimatechangeimpacts 3 Exercises 119 1.5 Organizationofthebook 4 5 Geographicinformationsystemsforhydrologic 2 Hydrologicmodelingforfloods 5 modeling 120 2.1 Introduction 5 5.1 Introduction 120 2.2 Estimationoffloodpeakdischarge 6 5.2 RepresentationofspatialobjectsinGIS 120 2.3 Intensity–duration–frequencyrelationship 10 5.3 GISforproximityanalysis 122 2.4 Floodrouting 12 5.4 Digitalelevationmodels 123 2.5 Abriefreviewofcommonlyusedhydrologic 5.5 Applicationsofdigitalelevationmodeling 125 models 19 5.6 Othersourcesofdigitalelevationdata 129 2.6 Empiricalmodels 29 5.7 Combiningdigitalimagesandmaps 132 2.7 Summary 40 5.8 Integrationofspatial,non-spatial,andancillary Exercises 40 dataintoadistributedhydrologicmodel 133 5.9 GISandremotesensingforfloodzonemapping 134 3 Climatechangeimpactassessment 43 5.10 Web-basedGIS 140 3.1 Introduction 43 5.11 Summary 144 3.2 Projectionofhydrologicimpacts 45 Exercises 145 3.3 Dynamicaldownscalingapproaches 45 3.4 Statisticaldownscalingapproaches 47 6 Casestudiesandfutureperspectives 146 3.5 Disaggregationmodels 64 6.1 Casestudy:MalaprabhaReservoircatchment, 3.6 Macroscalehydrologicmodels 68 India 146 3.7 Hypotheticalscenariosforhydrologic 6.2 Casestudy:MahanadiRiverbasin,India 158 modeling 71 6.3 Futureperspectives 164 3.8 Modelingoffloodsunderclimatechange 71 6.4 Summary 165 3.9 Uncertaintymodeling 75 3.10 Summary 83 References 167 Exercises 86 Index 176 4 Remotesensingforhydrologicmodeling 88 Colorplatesappearbetweenpages18and19. 4.1 Introduction 88 4.2 Digitalimages 91 v Foreword How much higher does the flood wall need to be built? How fallseriesbasedonavailabledata;orjustspecifyingaplausible muchlargerdoesthereservoirspillwayneedtobe?Howmuch rangeofvaluesforsensitivitytesting.Indeed,giventhelargeand morecapacityisneededintheurbandrainagesystem?Theseare irreducible uncertainties in climate model predictions, a strong thetypeofquestionsthatfloodsareconfronting,givenexpected case can often be made for simpler methods. Depending on the changes in rainfall intensity, timing and volume of peak flows, risk–reward,aclimatechangesafetymarginmaybesetwithout andsealevelsunderclimatechange. evenreferringtoclimatemodels.Insituationswherethestructure Therearenosimpleanswers.Infact,climatechangeisjustone hasashort(lessthan20years)life-span,theconcernwillbecli- driver of flood risk amongst many others. Rapid urbanization, matevariabilitynotclimatechange.Inotherheavilydiscounted development in floodplains, removal of natural vegetation, arti- cases,futureclimatechangesmaybeirrelevanttotheviabilityof ficialdrainage,andsoforth,canallcompoundflooding.There- aschemeandshorter-termgoalsmaybeparamount. fore, it is helpful to regard the climatic hazard as a multiplier Despitethelargeuncertaintyinfuturefloodrisk,hydrologists of flood risk that may already be increasing because of other still have plenty to offer adaptation planners. More accurate, socio-economic trends and/or human changes to the landscape. timely, and clearly articulated flood warnings will continue to Itthenfollowsthattheadaptationresponseswillinvolvecooper- improvethesafetyofvulnerablepopulationslivingwithunavoid- ation amongst many disciplines: the hydrologist to quantify the able flooding. Simulations of flood depths and areas will help impactofenvironmentalchangesonriverflows;theeconomistto planners to zone floodplains and regulate development in haz- weighupthecostsandbenefitsofdifferentoptions;thegeogra- ardousplaces.Fieldmonitoringandmodelingwillcontributeto phertoseethebroadersocio-physicalcontextoftheschemeand improved understanding of the physical processes that generate non-structuralchoices;theengineertoimplementthedesignand extremefloodsindifferentenvironments.Remotelysenseddata deviseoperationalrules;andthepoliticiantopersuadetaxpayers andseasonalforecastscaninformtheoperationofinfrastructure topayfortheproject! tooptimizebenefitsacrossmultipleobjectives(suchasfloodcon- The unavoidable truth is that structural measures for reduc- trol, hydropower production, and water supply). Such activities ing flood risk need hard numbers to dimension the flood wall, arenotalwaysperceivedasadaptation,buttheydocontributeto spillway,anddrainagesystem.Thisischallengingenoughunder flood risk management just as much as the wall, spillway, and presentclimateconditionsbecauseweseldomhavelongenough drainagesystem. hydrometeorologicalrecords(ifany);therecordswehavemaybe Theauthorsofthisbookaretobecommendedforguidingprac- corruptedbyotherlong-termchangesintheriverbasin;andthere titioners, step-by-step, through some of the analytical tools and is plenty of subjectivity in our methods for estimating extreme techniquesforevaluatingfloodriskundernon-stationaryclimate flowstatistics.Toaddclimatechangetothissituationistopresent conditions.Thetruebenefitwillcomefromrecognizingthepart atechnicalchallengesteepedinuncertainty.Meanwhile,theengi- playedbytheseapproacheswithinalargerarmouryofstrategies neerstillneedsnumberstogettheprojectunderway. formanagingfloodhazardsovercomingdecadesandbeyond. The scientific community offers the practitioner a bewilder- ing set of methodologies. For example, there are many differ- RobertL.Wilby ent ways of conjuring future rainfall intensity: regional climate ProfessorofHydroclimaticModelling, downscaling(usingphysicalorstatisticalmodels);MonteCarlo DepartmentofGeography, andre-samplingtechniquesforconstructinglargesyntheticrain- LoughboroughUniversity,UK vii
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