Flood Risk Science and Management

565 Pages·2010·14.635 MB·English

Flood Risk Science and
Management
Edited by
Gareth Pender
Hazel Faulkner
Flood Risk Science and Management
Edited by Gareth Pender and Hazel Faulkner
© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. ISBN: 978-1-405-18657-5
Thiseditionfirstpublished2011(cid:1)2011byBlackwellPublishingLtd
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Floodriskscienceandmanagement/editedbyGarethPender...[etal.].
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Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-1-4051-8657-5(hardback)
1. Floodcontrol.2. Flooddamageprevention.3. Riskassessment. I.Pender,G.(Garry)
TC530.F5852010
627’.4–dc22
2010017500
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Contents
Preface,vi
Contributors,viii
Foreword,xii
Acronyms/Glossaryofterms,xiii
PART1 INTRODUCTION
1 SETTINGTHESCENEFORFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,3
JimW.HallandEdmundC.Penning-Rowsell
PART2 LANDUSEANDFLOODING
2 STRATEGICOVERVIEWOFLANDUSEMANAGEMENTINTHECONTEXTOF
CATCHMENTFLOODRISKMANAGEMENTPLANNING,19
EndaO’Connell,JohnEwenandGregO’Donnell
3 MULTISCALEIMPACTSOFLANDMANAGEMENTONFLOODING,39
HowardS.Wheater,NeilMcIntyre,BethannaM.Jackson,MilesR.Marshall,
CarolineBallard,NataliyaS.Bulygina,BrianReynoldsandZoeFrogbrook
4 MANAGEDREALIGNMENT:ACOASTALFLOODMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY,60
IanTownend,ColinScottandMarkDixon
5 ACCOUNTINGFORSEDIMENTINFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,87
ColinThorne,NickWallerstein,PhilipSoar,AndrewBrookes,DuncanWishart,
DavidBiedenharn,StanfordGibson,CharlesLittleJr,DavidMooney,
ChesterC.Watson,TonyGreen,TomCoulthardandMarcoVanDeWiel
6 AMEASUREDSTEPTOWARDSPERFORMANCE-BASEDVISUALINSPECTIONOFFLOOD
DEFENCEASSETS,114
GavinLongandMichaelJ.Mawdesley
iv Contents
PART3 FLOODFORECASTINGANDWARNING
7 ADVANCESINTHEREMOTESENSINGOFPRECIPITATIONUSINGWEATHERRADAR,135
IanD.Cluckie
8 ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCETECHNIQUESFORREAL-TIMEFLOODFORECASTING,145
JonathanLawry,DanielR.McCulloch,NicholasJ.RandonandIanD.Cluckie
9 REAL-TIMEUPDATINGINFLOODFORECASTINGANDWARNING,163
PeterC.Young
10 COUPLINGMETEOROLOGICALANDHYDROLOGICALMODELSFORREAL-TIMEFLOOD
FORECASTING,196
GeoffAustin,BarneyAustin,LukeSutherland-StaceyandPaulShucksmith
PART4 FLOODMODELLINGANDMITIGATION
11 DATAUTILIZATIONINFLOODINUNDATIONMODELLING,211
DavidC.Mason,GuyJ-P.SchumannandPaulD.Bates
12 FLOODINUNDATIONMODELLINGTOSUPPORTFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,234
GarethPenderandSylvainNe´elz
13 INTEGRATEDURBANFLOODMODELLING,258
AdrianJ.Saul,SlobodanDjordjevic´,CˇedoMaksimovic´ andJohnBlanksby
PART5 SYSTEMSMODELLINGANDUNCERTAINTYHANDLING
14 DISTRIBUTEDMODELSANDUNCERTAINTYINFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,291
KeithBeven
15 TOWARDSTHENEXTGENERATIONOFRISK-BASEDASSETMANAGEMENTTOOLS,313
PaulB.Sayers,MikeJ.Wallis,JonathanD.Simm,GregBaxterandTonyAndryszewski
16 HANDLINGUNCERTAINTYINCOASTALMODELLING,336
DominicE.Reeve,Jos(cid:1)eHorrillo-CaraballoandAdria(cid:1)nPedrozo-Acun˜a
PART6 POLICYANDPLANNING
17 THEPRACTICEOFPOWER:GOVERNANCEANDFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,359
ColinGreen
18 STAKEHOLDERENGAGEMENTINFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,372
ColinGreenandEdmundC.Penning-Rowsell
19 FLOODRISKCOMMUNICATION,386
HazelFaulkner,SimonMcCarthyandSylviaTunstall
Contents v
20 SOCIO-PSYCHOLOGICALDIMENSIONSOFFLOODRISKMANAGEMENT,407
SueTapsell
21 ASSESSMENTOFINFECTIONRISKSDUETOURBANFLOODING,429
LornaFewtrell,KerenSmithandDavidKay
PART7 CASESTUDIES
22 MODELLING CONCEPTS AND STRATEGIES TO SUPPORT INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK
MANAGEMENT IN LARGE, LOWLAND BASINS: RI´O SALADO BASIN, ARGENTINA, 445
RodoAradas,ColinR.ThorneandNigelWright
23 FLOODMODELLINGINTHETHAMESESTUARY,472
JonWicks,LukeLovellandOwenTarrant
24 ASTRATEGICVIEWOFLANDMANAGEMENTPLANNINGINBANGLADESH,484
AinunNishat,BushraNishatandMalikFidaAbdullahKhan
25 GOALS,INSTITUTIONSANDGOVERNANCE:THEUSEXPERIENCE,499
GeraldE.Galloway
Index,513
Preface
Approachestoavoidlossoflifeandlimitdisruptionanddamagefromfloodinghavechangedsignificantly
inrecentyears.Therehasbeenamovefromastrategyofflooddefencetooneoffloodriskmanagement.
Flood risk management includes flood prevention using hard defences, where appropriate, but also
requiresthatsocietylearnstolivewithfloodsandthatstakeholderslivinginfloodproneareasdevelop
copingstrategiestoincreasetheirresiliencetofloodimpactswhentheseoccur.Thischangeinapproach
representsaparadigmshiftwhichstemsfromtherealisationthatcontinuingtostrengthenandextend
conventional flood defences is unsustainable economically, environmentally, and in terms of social
equity.Floodriskmanagementrecognisesthatasustainableapproachmustrestonintegratedmeasures
thatreducenotonlytheprobabilityofflooding,butalsotheconsequences.Thisisessentialasincreasesin
theprobabilityofinundationareinevitableinmanyareasoftheworldduetoclimatechange,whilesocio-
economicdevelopmentwillleadtospirallingincreasesintheconsequencesoffloodingunlesslandusein
floodplainsiscarefullyplanned.
Recognizingtheneedforresearchtosupportthisshift,fundersoffloodriskmanagementresearchin
theUKcreatedtheFloodRiskManagementResearchConsortium(FRMRC),amulti-institutional,multi-
disciplinary consortium tasked with increasing the understanding of flooding by generating new and
originalscience,tosupportimprovedfloodriskmanagement.Theportfolioofactivitiesincluded:
. the short-term delivery of tools and techniques to support accurate flood forecasting and warning,
improvementstofloodmanagementinfrastructureandreductionoffloodrisktopeople,propertyand
theenvironment;
. theestablishmentofaprogrammeofhighqualitysciencetoenhanceunderstandingoffloodingand
improvesociety’sabilitytoreducefloodriskthroughthedevelopmentofsustainablefloodmanagement
strategies.
ThecorecontentforthisvolumehasbeenprovidedbymembersoftheFRMRC.Inaddition,wehave
broadenedtherangeofexpertisebydrawingontheinternationalresearchcommunityinfloodmanage-
ment. Our intention is to provide an extensive and comprehensive synthesis of current international
research in flood management, thereby, providing a multi-disciplinary reference text covering a wide
rangeoffloodmanagementtopics.
ThebookauthorsareattheveryhighestpositioninacademicinstitutionsresearchingFloodRisk
ScienceandManagementintheUKandelsewhere.Thecontentsareorganisedintosevenparts.Part1of
thetextdevelopsascene-settingoverviewofcontemporaryscientificandsocio-economicchallenges,
drawinglargelyonthesituationinEuropeandtheUKinparticular.InPart2,land-usemanagement
isexploredasastrategicapproachtofloodriskreduction.Floodfrequencychangesconsequentupon
Preface vii
land-usemodificationsunder currentclimaticandsocio-economic‘futures’areexplored,themulti-
scale impacts of land management on flooding are developed further in the case study context of
FRMRC’sPontBrenstudyarea,asubcatchmentoftheriverSeverninmid-Wales,UK(Chapters2&3).
In Chapter 4, the coastal management strategies of managed retreat, managed realignment and
restoration are reviewed as approaches to coastal flood risk. The issues associated with sediment
managementinfloodmodelsandinmanagementschemesareexploredinChapter5,andflooddefence
andassetappraisalreviewedinChapter6.
InPart3,floodforecastingandtheissuingofwarningsarebothconsideredfromatechnicalperspective.
Chapters7and8lookatadvancesinremotesensing;inChapter7inrelationtoprecipitationestimation
using radar, and in Chapter 8 in relation to real-time flood forecasting. The challenges of updating
forecastsinreal-timeisexploredinChapter9,andtheproblemsassociatedwithcouplingrainfallandrun-
offmodelsareconsideredinChapter10.
Floodmodelling,andthemodellingoffloodmitigationeffectsisthefocusofPart4.Chapter11covers
data utilisation for modelling purposes, and Chapters 12 and 13 develop the algorithm for 1D-2D
modellinginarangeofsettings.Thetoolsavailableforhandlinguncertaintiesinmodelsareoutlined
inPart5.Therisk-basedapproachisfurtherdevelopedinthecontextofassetmanagementinChapter15,
andincoastalmodellinginChapter16.
InPart6,policyandplanningarebothaddressedfromapredominantlysocio-economicperspective.
Governance issues (Chapter 17), the involvement of stakeholders in practice and management
(Chapter 18), and the design of effective ways to target flood risk communications (Chapter 19) are
considered first. Some of the psycho-social dimensions of Flood Risk Management are explored in
Chapter20,andhealthimpactsoffloodinginChapter21.TheremainingchaptersinPart7tracekey
case studies from a range of international settings.
This text covering Flood Risk Science and Management therefore provides an extensive and com-
prehensivesynthesisofcurrentresearchinfloodmanagement;developingamulti-disciplinaryreference
textcoveringawiderangeoffloodmanagementtopics.Itstargetedreadershipistheinternationalresearch
community(fromresearchstudentsthroughtoseniorstaff),aswellasfloodmanagementprofessionals,
suchasengineers,planners,governmentofficialsandthosewithfloodmanagementresponsibilityinthe
publicsector.Byusingtheconceptofcasestudychapters,internationalcoverageisgiventothetopic,
ensuringaworld-widerelevance.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
TheresearchreportedinallchaptersexceptChapters1,10,17,18,20,24and25wasundertakeninpart
bytheFloodRiskManagementResearchConsortium(FRMRC).TheFRMRCissupportedbygrants
GR/S76304/01 and EP/F020511/1 from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, in
partnershipwiththeDEFRA/EAJointResearchProgrammeonFloodandCoastalDefence,UKWIR,
OPW (Ireland), the Scottish Government and the Rivers Agency (Northern Ireland). This financial
support is gratefully acknowledged. The consortium is also grateful to the Environment Agency for
providing LiDAR the data and the Ordnance Survey for providing Mastermap(cid:1) data to support the
consortium’smodellingactivities.Themanyreviewersofthechaptersherearethankedfortheirtime,
andgenerousattentiontodetail.
GarethPenderandHazelFaulkner
September2010
Contributors
TONY ANDRYSZEWSKI PolicyManager,EnvironmentAgency,AztecHouse,Bristol,UK
RODOLFO ARADAS, PhD HalcrowGroupLtd,BuenosAires,Argentina
BARNEY N. AUSTIN, PhD PEDirectorofHydrologicServices,INTERA,Inc.,Austin,TX,USA
GEOFFREY L. AUSTIN, MSC, PhD, FRSNZ ProfessorofGeophysics,PhysicsDepartment,University
ofAuckland,NewZealand
CAROLINE BALLARD, ME ResearchAssistant,DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,
ImperialCollegeLondon,UK
PAUL D. BATES, PhD ProfessorofHydrology,SchoolofGeographicalSciences,UniversityofBristol,
UK
GEOFF BAXTER PhD Research Scientist - Flooding and Communities, Research, Monitoring and
InnovationEvidenceDirectorate,EnvironmentAgency,Cardiff,Wales,UK
KEITH BEVEN, PhD Professor of Hydrology,Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University,
Lancaster,LA14YQ,UK
DAVID S. BIEDENHARN, PhD PrincipalInvestigator,BiedenharnGroup,LLC,Vicksburg,MS39180,
USA
JOHN BLANKSBY, DMS, CENG MICE Research Fellow, Department of Civil and Structural
Engineering,UniversityofSheffield,UK
ANDREW BROOKES, PhD, FCIWEM, MIEMA, C.WEM, CENV, CSCI, CGEOG DivisionalDirector,
JacobsEngineeringUKLtd,1180EskdaleRoad,Winnersh,Wokingham,RG145TU,UK
NATALIYA S BULYGINA, PhD Research Associate, Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering,ImperialCollegeLondon,UK
IAN D. CLUCKIE, MSC., PhD, FRENG, CENG, FICE, FCIWEM, FRSA, FRMETSOC Professorand
Pro-Vice-Chancellor(ScienceandEngineering),SwanseaUniversity,Wales,UK
TOM J. COULTHARD, PhD ProfessorofPhysicalGeography,UniversityofHull,Hull,HU67RX,UK
MARK DIXON, FIMS, MBE Independent,WestMersea,Essex
Contributors ix
SLOBODAN DJORDJEVIC(cid:1), PhD Associate Professor of Hydraulic Engineering, Centre for Water
Systems,CollegeofEngineering,MathematicsandPhysicalSciences,UniversityofExeter,UK
JOHN EWEN, PhD SchoolofCivilEngineeringandGeosciences,NewcastleUniversity,Newcastle
uponTyne,UK
HAZEL FAULKNER, MSC, PhD Professor of Environmental Management, Flood Hazard Research
Centre,MiddlesexUniversity,UK
LORNA FEWTRELL, PhD, FRSPH Centre for Research into Environment and Health, Aberystwyth
University,Wales,UK
ZOE FROGBROOK, PhD Advisor: Soils and Forestry, Environment Agency Wales, UK. Formerly at
CentreforEcologyandHydrology,EnvironmentCentreWales,Bangor,Wales,UK
GERALD E. GALLOWAY, PhD, PE ProfessorofEngineering,GlennL.MartinInstitute,Universityof
Maryland,USA
STANFORD GIBSON, PhD ResearchHydraulicEngineer,HydrologicEngineeringCenter,Davis,CA
95616,USA
NIGEL J.D. GRAHAM, MSC, PhD, DIC, SCD, FICE, FICHEME, FCIWEM, CENG, CSCI, CENV
Professor of Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
ImperialCollege,London,UK
COLIN GREEN, MA ProfessorofGeography,FloodHazardResearchCentre,MiddlesexUniversity,UK
JIM W. HALL, PhD, CENG, FICE ProfessorofEarthSystemsEngineering,SchoolofCivilEngineering
andGeosciences,NewcastleUniversity,NewcastleuponTyne,UK
J. BARRIE HOLDEN, CCHEM, MRSC InnovationProgrammeManager,AnglianWaterServicesLtd,
Peterborough,UK
JOSÉ HORRILLO-CARABALLO, PhD ResearchFellow,SchoolofEngineering,UniversityofPlymouth,
UK
BETHANNA M JACKSON, PhD Lecturer inHydrology andWater Resources, School ofGeography,
Environment and Earth Sciences, Victo, ria University of Wellington, New Zealand. Formerly at
ImperialCollegeLondon,UK
DAVID KAY, PhD ProfessorofEnvironmentandHealth,CentreforCatchmentandCoastalResearch
andCentreforResearchintoEnvironmentandHealth,HydrologyandRiverBasinDynamicsResearch
Group,IGES,AberystwythUniversity,Wales,UK
MALIK FIDA ABDULLAH KHAN CEGIS,Dhaka,Bangladesh
JONATHAN LAWRY, PhD Professor of Artificial Intelligence, Department of Engineering
Mathematics,UniversityofBristol,Queen’sBuilding,UniversityWalk,Bristol,UK
CHARLES D. LITTLE JR, PE Research Hydraulic Engineer, US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer
Research&DevelopmentCenter,Vicksburg,MS39180,USA
GAVIN LONG, PhD ResearchAssociate,DepartmentofCivilEngineering,UniversityofNottingham,
UK
LUKE LOVELL, MSC Halcrow,Swindon,UK
x Contributors
C(cid:3)EDO MAKSIMOVIC(cid:1), PhD ProfessorialResearchFellow,CentreforUrbanWater,DepartmentofCivil
andEnvironmentalEngineering,ImperialCollegeLondon,UK
MILES R. MARSHALL, PhD Teaching Fellow in Physical Geography, School of Geography,
Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. Formerly at
ImperialCollegeLondon,UK
DAVID C. MASON, PhD Reader, NERC Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of
Reading,UK
MICHAEL J. MAWDESLEY, PhD Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering,
TheUniversityofNottingham,UK
SIMON McCARTHY, PhD Researcher,FloodHazardResearchCentre,MiddlesexUniversity,UK
DANIEL R. McCULLOCH formerly Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol,
Queen’sBuilding,UniversityWalk,Bristol,UK
NEIL MCINTYRE, PhD Reader,DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,ImperialCollege
London,UK
DAVID M. MOONEY, PhD, PE ProgramEngineer,SanJoaquinRiverRestorationProject,Bureauof
Reclamation,Sacramento,CA95825,USA
AINUN NISHAT, PhD IUCN-WorldConservationUnion,Dhaka,Bangladesh
BUSHRA NISHAT InstituteofWaterModelling,Bangladesh
SYLVAIN NÉELZ, PhD Former Lecturer, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University,
Edinburgh,Scotland,UK
ENDA O'CONNELL, PhD ProfessorofWaterResourcesEngineering,SchoolofCivilEngineeringand
Geosciences,NewcastleUniversity,NewcastleuponTyne,UK.
GREG O'DONNELL, PhD CatchmentChangeNetwork,SchoolofCivilEngineeringandGeosciences,
NewcastleUniversity,NewcastleuponTyne,UK
ADRIÁN PEDROZO-ACUÑA, PhD Investigador, Instituto de Ingenier(cid:1)ıa, Universidad Nacional
Auto´nomadeM(cid:1)exico,Mexico
GARETH PENDER, PhD, CENG, FICE, FCIWEM, FRSE Professor of Environmental Engineering,
SchooloftheBuiltEnvironment,Heriot-WattUniversity,Edinburgh,Scotland,UK
EDMUND PENNING-ROWSELL, MA, PhD ProfessorofGeography,FloodHazardResearchCentre,
MiddlesexUniversity,UK
NICHOLAS J. RANDON Artificial Intelligence Group, Department of Engineering Mathematics,
UniversityofBristol,BS81TR,UK
DOMINIC E. REEVE, PhD, CMATH, FIMA, FICE Professor of Coastal Dynamics, School of
Engineering,UniversityofPlymouth,UK
BRIAN REYNOLDS, PhD Senior Water Quality Scientist, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,
EnvironmentCentreWales,Bangor,Wales,UK
ADRIAN J. SAUL, PhD, FICE YorkshireWaterChairofWaterEngineering,PennineWaterGroup,
UniversityofSheffield,DepartmentofCivilandStructuralEngineering,Sheffield,UK