Fatal Accidents and Catastrophic Losses: How Prosperity and Safety Are Linked

137 Pages·2009·1.91 MB·English

by  John Frederick Lancaster

Fatal accidents
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Fatal accidents
How prosperity and safety are linked
John Lancaster

Oxford Cambridge New Delhi
Published by Woodhead Publishing Limited, Abington Hall, Granta Park, Great
Abington, Cambridge CB21 6AH, UK
www.woodheadpublishing.com
Woodhead Publishing India Private Limited, G-2, Vardaan House, 7/28 Ansari
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First published 2009, Woodhead Publishing Limited and CRC Press LLC
© 2009, Woodhead Publishing Limited
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Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgements xi
1 How fatal accidents happen 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 International comparisons: natural disasters 2
1.3 International comparisons: road deaths 3
1.4 Changes in the causes of accidental death 4
1.5 The accident mortality rate and national productivity 5
1.6 The exponential trend curve 6
1.7 Male and female accident mortality rates 7
1.8 Fatal accidents in time of war 9
1.9 Fatal accidents on roads in Great Britain 11
1.10 Road casualties: sex and age 12
1.11 Road casualties: the normal case 12
1.12 The effect of the Second World War 16
1.13 The seat belt law in Great Britain 17
1.14 The anatomy of self-improvement in accident
mortality 18
1.15 Summary and conclusion 20
2 Fatality and loss rates in transport and industry 23
2.1 The theory of accidents 23
2.2 Safety criteria 24
2.3 Analysing the historical data 24
2.4 Fatality and loss rates in transport and industry 25
2.5 Comment 35
2.6 Exceptions to the normal pattern 36
2.7 Summary and comment 45
2.8 Scatter in fatality rate data 46
v
vi Contents
3 Mortality from all causes 49
3.1 Introduction 49
3.2 The kinship between accident and all-cause mortalities 50
3.3 The general characteristics of all-cause mortality 51
3.4 Initiation of the fall in mortality rates 55
3.5 The germ theory of disease 55
3.6 Infectious disease 58
3.7 Mortality rates in the twentieth century 59
3.8 The infl uenza epidemic in 1918 62
3.9 The two World Wars 63
3.10 The difference between the sexes 68
3.11 Comment 69
4 Economic growth 71
4.1 Introduction 71
4.2 Economic growth in Britain: details 73
4.3 Boom and slump 75
4.4 The War period: 1900–1950 76
4.5 The 1930s Depression 81
4.6 Price infl ation in Britain 1900–2000 82
4.7 Population trend in Britain 1801–2001 87
4.8 Politics and economic growth 90
4.9 Regulating human behaviour 91
5 Analysing historical data: characteristics
and methods 93
5.1 Quantitative history 93
5.2 Practical considerations 94
5.3 Quantifying a trend 95
5.4 The exponential case 96
5.5 The hyperbolic case 101
5.6 The sinusoidal case 101
5.7 Quantifying the spread of data 104
5.8 Frequency distribution 105
5.9 The 2σ boundaries 107
5.10 Plotting the distribution function 107
5.11 The neutral condition 109
6 Some outstanding questions 111
6.1 Introduction 111
6.2 Fatal accidents 112
6.3 Mortality from all causes 114
6.4 Economic growth 117
Contents vii
6.5 Predictions 117
6.6 A negative factor 118
6.7 Final comments 120
6.8 The world turned upside-down 121
6.9 Safety policy 122
Appendix: Sources 123
Index 127

Preface
While writing a book about engineering catastrophes I decided, for good
measure, to include an analysis of fatality rates due to accidents in various
industries and modes of transport. The results showed that, with just a few
exceptions, these rates declined with the passage of time in a regular, well-
ordered fashion.
Whilst this outcome was very satisfactory, it posed some questions: Why
the fall? How was it regulated? And why were people (even safety experts)
unaware of this improvement in safety?
It was also found that fatal accident rates correlated with economic
growth, such that as national output per head increased, the accident mor-
tality rate decreased.
So a model for national progress was set up, in which the development
of human skill resulted in higher productivity whilst at the same time the
population became more adept at avoiding accidents. Such developments
were made possible by progress in science and technology, but the popula-
tion concerned regulated its pace, and did so subconsciously and collec-
tively. This model was consistent with earlier results, also with data for
economic growth and mortality rates from all causes.
The conclusion is that economic growth rates and accident mortality rates
are regulated by the population, and that this regulation is accomplished
subconsciously.
This conclusion has wide implications, not least for politicians who, in
spite of many indications to the contrary, still appear to believe in their
power to guide the economy of a country in this way or that.
It is also relevant to government-appointed bodies responsible for legis-
lation on matters pertaining to safety. In the UK, and no doubt in similar
developed countries, fatalities due to accidents are falling at a satisfactory
rate. Consequently there is no case for legislation, and the activities of such
organisations should perhaps be restricted to data collection and analysis.
No call for immediate action, therefore, arises from the present study.
There is, however, much scope for further work. Only a very small
ix