Table Of ContentCathal O’Donoghue
FARM-LEVEL
MICROSIMULATION
MODELLING
Farm-Level Microsimulation Modelling
’
Cathal O Donoghue
Farm-Level
Microsimulation
Modelling
Cathal O’Donoghue
RuralEconomy andDevelopment Programme
Athenry, Galway
Ireland
ISBN978-3-319-63978-9 ISBN978-3-319-63979-6 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-63979-6
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2017948310
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Dedicated to the staff of Teagasc and to Farmers of the
National Farm Survey
Preface
This work represents an overview of the model development in relation
tofarm-levelmicro-simulationmodellingthatIundertookovera10-year
period in Teagasc, the Irish Agriculture and Food Development
Authority, an important research and extension institution in Ireland.
The book builds upon my career expertise in the development of sim-
ulation models to understand distributional consequences of policy,
market and societal changes.
fl
As a sector, very strongly in uenced by public policy and with very
fi
signi cant distributional implications of policy, market and societal
changes, agriculture has substantial scope and potential for model
development. I was glad to have worked with colleagues in Teagasc who
were very experienced in other forms of modelling.
’
I am very proud to have worked for Teagasc. Teagasc s staff members
are hugely dedicated to their client base of farmers, food businesses and
rural dwellers. Most ofthe models developed in thisbookdraw upon the
Teagasc National Farm Survey. I would like to express my appreciation
fortheworkofthemembersofthesurveyteam,whohavegenerated one
ofthehighestquality micro datasetsIhave everworkedwithandforthe
vii
viii Preface
fi
farmers who have volunteered their time and their con dential farm
management data for over 40 years.
Most of all, this book builds upon work with my Ph.D. students and
collaborators of my Policy Lab. As in all large-scale modelling efforts, the
work is a team effort. It has been a pleasure working with the many Ph.
D. students and post-docs over the years. Within my lab, everyone
fi
bene ts from the infrastructure that has been built and everyone con-
tributes.Thus,manyhave contributed tothedevelopmentofthemodels
in this book. I would like to express my appreciation in particular to
Ursula Colohan who was my PA, Programme Administrator for the
decade, John Lennon, who undertook a lot of the data preparation and
Mary Ryan who co-authored 3 of the chapters and whose forensic eye
helped with the editing.
In each chapter, I acknowledge collaborating partners and co-authors.
In all models, I have made the major or a major contribution to their
development. Most of the analyses in this book extend work done in
collaborationwiththePh.D.students.InthecasesofChaps.5,9and10,
fi fl
the rst collaborator is the lead author on the chapter, re ecting their
contribution to these chapters. In the remaining chapters, I am the lead
author. However, all are collaborative efforts in one form or other. I am
grateful for their efforts. Chapter 2 represents an update of work previ-
ously published in O’Donoghue (2016).1
’
Athenry, Ireland Cathal O Donoghue
Note
1. O’Donoghue, C., Farm Level Microsimulation Models in Shrestha, S.,
Barnes, A., & Ahmadi, B. V. (Eds.). (2016). Farm-level Modelling:
Techniques, Applications and Policy. CABI.
Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Farm-Level Microsimulation 4
1.3 Book Structure 11
References 17
2 Farm-Level Microsimulation Modelling: An Updated
Survey 21
2.1 Introduction 21
2.2 Applications of Farm-Level Microsimulation
Modelling 24
2.3 Conclusions 34
References 35
3 Static Farm Microsimulation Model: Price Impact 49
3.1 Introduction 49
3.2 Theoretical Framework 52
3.3 Methodology 58
3.4 Data 60
ix
x Contents
3.5 Results 67
3.6 Conclusions 83
References 85
—
4 Hypothetical Microsimulation Modeling Farm
Taxation 87
4.1 Introduction 87
4.2 Policy Framework 89
4.3 Methodology 95
4.4 Data 98
4.5 Results 101
4.6 Conclusions 112
Appendix Policy Parameters 113
References 115
5 Farm Subsidy Microsimulation Modelling 119
5.1 Introduction 119
5.2 Policy Context 121
5.3 Theoretical Framework 125
5.4 Methodology and Data 129
5.5 Results 134
5.6 Conclusions 142
References 144
6 Spatial Microsimulation of Farm Income 147
6.1 Introduction 147
6.2 Methodology 149
6.3 Data 157
6.4 Results 162
References 172
Contents xi
7 Farm-Level Income Generation Microsimulation
Model 177
7.1 Introduction 177
7.2 Theoretical Framework 179
7.3 Methodology 183
7.4 Data 189
7.5 Results 192
7.6 Conclusions 210
References 211
8 Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling:
Agri-Environmental Schemes 215
8.1 Introduction 215
8.2 Theoretical Framework 220
8.3 Methodology 223
8.4 Data 226
8.5 Results 229
8.6 Conclusions 236
References 237
9 Inter-temporal Microsimulation Model: Forestry
Planting Decisions 241
9.1 Introduction 241
9.2 Theoretical Framework 246
9.3 Methodology 249
9.4 Data 261
9.5 Results 262
9.6 Conclusions 275
References 277
10 Spatial Microsimulation Model for Environmental
Policy 283
10.1 Introduction 283
10.2 Theoretical Framework 288
10.3 Methodology 295
