ExponentialRandomGraphModelsforSocialNetworks Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are increasingly applied to observednetworkdataandarecentraltounderstandingsocialstructureand networkprocesses.Thechaptersinthiseditedvolumeprovidethetheoretical andmethodologicalunderpinningsofERGMs,includingmodelsforunivari- ate,multivariate,bipartite,longitudinal,andsocialinfluence–typeERGMs. Each method is applied in individual case studies illustrating how social science theories may be examined empirically using ERGMs. The authors supplythereaderwithsufficientdetailtospecifyERGMs,fitthemtodata withanyoftheavailablesoftwarepackages,andinterprettheresults. Dr.DeanLusherisLecturerinSociologyatSwinburneUniversityofTech- nology.Heworkscloselywithleadingmethodologiststodevelopanintuitive understandingofexponentialgraphmodels,howtheylinktobroadernet- worktheory,andhowtofitthemtoreal-lifedata.Hisresearchapplications aredirectedatissuesofsocialnormsandsocialhierarchies. Dr. Johan Koskinen is Lecturer in Social Statistics at the University of Manchester. He is a statistician working with modeling and inference for Social Science data. Focusing on social network data, Dr. Koskinen deals withgenerativemodelsfordifferenttypesofstructures,suchaslongitudi- nal network data, networks nested in multilevel structures, and multilevel networksclassifiedbyaffiliations. GarryRobinsisProfessorintheSchoolofPsychologicalSciencesattheUni- versityofMelbourne.Robinsisamathematicalpsychologistwhoseresearch dealswithquantitativeandstatisticalmodelsforsocialandrelationalsys- tems. His research has won international awards from the Psychometric Society,theAmericanPsychologicalAssociation,andtheInternationalNet- workforSocialNetworkAnalysis. StructuralAnalysisintheSocialSciences MarkGranovetter,Editor The series Structural Analysis in the Social Sciences presents studies that ana- lyzesocialbehaviorandinstitutionsbyreferencetorelationsamongsuchcon- crete social entities as persons, organizations, and nations. Relational analysis contrasts with both reductionist methodological individualism and macrolevel determinism,whetherbasedontechnology,materialconditions,economiccon- flict, adaptive evolution, or functional imperatives. In this more intellectually flexible structural middle ground, analysts situate actors and their relations in avarietyofcontexts.Sincetheseriesbeganin1987,itsauthorshavevariously focusedonsmallgroups,history,culture,politics,kinship,aesthetics,economics, andcomplexorganizations,creativelytheorizinghowtheseshape,andinturn are shaped by, social relations. Their style and methods have ranged widely, fromintense,long-termethnographicobservationtohighlyabstractmathemat- icalmodels.Theirdisciplinaryaffiliationshaveincludedhistory,anthropology, sociology,politicalscience,business,economics,mathematics,andcomputersci- ence.Somehavemadeexplicituseofsocialnetworkanalysis,includingmany ofthecutting-edgeandstandardworksofthatapproach,whereasothershave keptformalanalysisinthebackgroundandused“networks”asafruitfulorient- ingmetaphor.Allhaveincommonasophisticatedandrevealingapproachthat forcefullyilluminatesourcomplexsocialworld. OtherBooksintheSeries 1. MarkS.MizruchiandMichaelSchwartz,eds.,IntercorporateRelations: TheStructuralAnalysisofBusiness 2. BarryWellmannandS.D.Berkowitz,eds.,SocialStructures:ANetwork Approach 3. RonaldL.Brieger,ed.,SocialMobilityandSocialStructure 4. DavidKnoke,PoliticalNetworks:TheStructuralPerspective 5. JohnL.Campbell,J.RogersHollingsworth,andLeonN.Lindberg,eds., GovernanceoftheAmericanEconomy 6. KyriakosM.Kontopoulos,TheLogicsofSocialStructure 7. PhilippaPattison,AlgebraicModelsforSocialStructure 8. StanleyWassermanandKatherineFaust,SocialNetworkAnalysis: MethodsandApplications 9. GaryHerrigel,IndustrialConstructions:TheSourcesofGermanIndustrial Power 10. PhilippeBourgois,InSearchofRespect:SellingCrackinElBarrio 11. PerHageandFrankHarary,IslandNetworks:Communication,Kinship, andClassificationStructuresinOceana 12. ThomasSchweitzerandDouglasR.White,eds.,Kinship,Networks,and Exchange 13. NoahE.Friedkin,AStructuralTheoryofSocialInfluence 14. DavidWank,CommodifyingCommunism:Business,Trust,andPoliticsin aChineseCity Continuedaftertheindex Exponential Random Graph Models for Social Networks Theory, Methods, and Applications Editors DEAN LUSHER JOHAN KOSKINEN GARRY ROBINS cambridgeuniversitypress Cambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown, Singapore,Sa˜oPaulo,Delhi,MexicoCity CambridgeUniversityPress 32AvenueoftheAmericas,NewYork,NY10013–2473,USA www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9780521141383 (cid:2)C CambridgeUniversityPress2013 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2013 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica AcatalogrecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData Exponentialrandomgraphmodelsforsocialnetworks:theory,methods,and applications/[editedby]DeanLusher,SwinburneUniversityofTechnology, JohanKoskinen,UniversityofManchester,GarryRobins,Universityof Melbourne,Australia. pages cm.–(Structuralanalysisinthesocialsciences;35) Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978-0-521-19356-6(hardback)–ISBN978-0-521-14138-3 (paperback) 1.Socialnetworks–Mathematicalmodels. 2.Socialnetworks– Research–Graphicmethods. I.Lusher,Dean,editorofcompilation. II.Koskinen,Johan,editorofcompilation. III.Robins,Garry,editorof compilation. HM741.E96 2012 302.3–dc23 2012021034 ISBN978-0-521-19356-6Hardback ISBN978-0-521-14138-3Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracy ofURLsforexternalorthird-partyInternetWebsitesreferredtointhis publicationanddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchWebsitesis,or willremain,accurateorappropriate. For Jo,Massimo,andPriscilla Pirkko Jane,andOlivia THANKS Wethankourchaptercontributorsfortheirknowledge, dedication,andpatienceinproducingthisbook.Thanksalso toourcolleaguesintheMelnetsocialnetworkgroupand elsewherewhohavecollaboratedwithusandprovided adviceinourresearchonexponentialrandomgraphmodels. Additionally,weareindebtedtoMelNetSNAcourse participantswhosequestionsandinquisitivenesshave directedthecontentofthiseditedvolume.Wearegratefulto colleaguesattheDefenceScienceandTechnology Organization(DSTO)inAustralia,andNuffieldCollegeand theMitchellCenterintheUKforvaluablecommentsand feedback.Inparticular,thankstoNectariosKontoleon,Jon Fahlander,andBernieHoganforcommentsonselected partsofthebook.Finally,thankyoutoSarahCraigand ClaudiaMollidorforpreparingthebookforpublication.