EXPLORING THE GEOGRAPHY OF ROUTINE ACTIVITY THEORY

346 Pages·2006·2.05 MB·English

by  Matthew Hill

ABSTRACT

Title: EXPLORING THE GEOGRAPHY OF
ROUTINE ACTIVITY THEORY:
A SPATIO-TEMPORAL TEST USING
STREET ROBBERY

Elizabeth Ruth Groff, Ph.D., 2006

Co-Directed By: Ralph Dubayah, Professor, Geography
David Weisburd, Professor, Criminology and
Criminal Justice

Many social phenomena have a spatio-temporal dimension and involve dynamic
decisions made by individuals. Investigations focusing on the spatio-temporal
dimensions of human behavior have received a great deal of theoretical attention;
however, empirical testing of these theories has been handicapped by a lack of micro-
level data and modeling tools that can capture the dynamic interactions of individuals
and the context in which they occur. This research presents a methodology for
evaluating theory through the implementation of a simulation model; the assumptions
of the theory are operationalized in a model, a series of experiments are run, and the
outcomes are analyzed to discover if they match what the theory would predict.
Specifically, the concepts of routine activity theory (RAT) (Cohen and Felson,
1979) are formalized in a computational laboratory representing Seattle, Washington.
The computational environment for implementation, Agent Analyst, merges agent-
based modeling (ABM) software with geographic information systems (GIS). A
strategy for developing activity spaces is implemented and demonstrates how agents
can move along existing street networks, and land use patterns can be used to create
representational activity spaces. Three versions of a model of street robbery are
developed; each version implements a different level of constraints on agent’s routine
activities. In one version (Simple), individuals are either at home or not at home. In
another, individuals follow a temporal schedule (Temporal). Last, individual’s
schedules are both temporally and spatially constrained (Activity Space). A series of
experiments are conducted which compare the incidence and spatial pattern of street
robbery events from each version.
The results of the experiments provide strong evidence of the important role
routine activities play in street robbery events. The addition of temporal and spatio-
temporal schedule constraints reduces the incidence and changes the pattern of street
robberies. Support for routine activity theory’s premise, as time spent away from
home increases street robbery will increase, is found in the Simple and Temporal, but
not the Activity Space version of the model.
EXPLORING THE GEOGRAPHY OF ROUTINE ACTIVITY THEORY:
A SPATIO-TEMPORAL TEST USING STREET ROBBERY

By

Elizabeth Ruth Groff

Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the
University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
2006

Advisory Committee:
Professor Ralph Dubayah, Co-Chair
Professor David Weisburd , Co-Chair
Associate Professor Jochen Albrecht
Associate Professor Martha Geores
Professor Keith Harries
Professor John Laub
© Copyright by
Elizabeth Ruth Groff
2006
Dedication

This research is dedicated to my grandmother Minnie Boltz who taught me to pursue
greater understanding in all things and to Jo Fraley for her good humor and
unwavering faith.
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Acknowledgements
There were a variety of University of Maryland faculty members and students
who were instrumental in the completion of this research. Ralph Dubayah inherited
my candidacy willingly and gave me lots of good advice. David Weisburd
encouraged me and provided a skeptics view on the research. Jochen Albrecht guided
my exploration of human spatial behavior, discussed details of the model
implementation, and peer-reviewed the model code; his input was invaluable. In
addition, the powerful computer Jochen loaned me was very useful. The other
members of the committee offered their comments and participation for which I am
grateful.
In general, the faculty at UMD in both the Geography and Criminology programs
taught courses that were influential in expanding my horizons. In particular,
Catherine Dibble’s class on computational laboratories provided seminal guidance on
how to specify an agent-based model. A special thanks to Femke Reitsma for
listening, understanding, and challenging. Finally, Mel Songer took the journey with
me, thanks for being there.
The author gratefully acknowledges partial financial support from the National
Institute of Justice grant #2005-IJ-CX-0015. The Institute for Law and Justice’s
flexibility with regard to scheduling enabled my pursuit of this degree. Tom McEwen
gave me helpful feedback on Chapter 3. Discussions with Kelly Bradley and Randall
Guynes strengthened the research and my communication of it.
During the programming of the model, Jo Fraley’s patient tutelage was invaluable
to a novice programmer. Thanks to Tobi Glensk for building a prototype model in
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Repast Java from my specifications. Even though I ended up using different
software, I learned a great deal about how to think like a programmer from my
interaction with him.
This section would be incomplete without acknowledging my mentors from the
University of North Carolina at Charlotte. Sally Ives, who introduced me to
behavioral geography and quantitative methods; Owen Furuseth who supported my
desire to explore the geographical aspects of crime; and the rest of the faculty at UNC
Charlotte who contributed in various ways -- Dennis Lord, Tink Moore, Wayne
Walcott, Paul Smith, John Sommers, Gerry Ingalls and the Jerry Pyle.
Lastly, Julie Wartell provided a thorough edit for which I am very grateful.

In general:
To the many mentors/teachers/friends that have encouraged me over my lifetime,
your words made a difference.

Thanks to my family for long distance support and to my friends for being patient and
supporting my goals.

Finally, although she will never read this, my eternal gratitude goes to Katie Jane
Groff for just being there.
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Table of Contents

Dedication.....................................................................................................................ii
Acknowledgements......................................................................................................iii
Table of Contents..........................................................................................................v
List of Tables..............................................................................................................vii
List of Figures..............................................................................................................ix
Chapter 1: Introduction................................................................................................1
1.0 Goal and Objectives............................................................................................7
1.1 Expected Significance of the Research.............................................................11
1.2 Organization of the Remaining Text.................................................................13
Chapter 2: ‘Situating’ Simulation..............................................................................15
1.0 Introduction.......................................................................................................15
2.0 Theoretical Basis for a Street Robbery Model..................................................18
2.1 Criminological Theory..................................................................................19
2.2 Activity Spaces Theory.................................................................................20
2.3 Conceptual Model.........................................................................................22
3.0 Research Design................................................................................................24
3.1 Agent Analyst- GIS/ABM Integration..........................................................24
3.1 Data...............................................................................................................25
3.3 Achieving Agent Movement in the Model...................................................30
3.4 Creating Activity Spaces for Civilians in the Model....................................32
4.0 Implementation Model......................................................................................35
4.1 Overview of the Landscape and the People in the Model............................36
5.0 Results of Implementing a Model in Agent Analyst........................................42
6.0 Conclusions.......................................................................................................43
Chapter 3 Simulation for Theory Testing and Experimentation.................................47
1.0 Introduction.......................................................................................................47
2.0 Meeting the Challenges Encountered by Previous Research............................49
2.1 A New Approach for Modeling Crime Events and Crime Patterns..............51
3.0 Theoretical Basis for the Conceptual Model and Behavioral Rules.................55
3.1 Routine Activity Theory...............................................................................56
3.2 Offender Decision-making............................................................................62
4.0 Implementing a Model of Street Robbery........................................................63
4.1 Software........................................................................................................64
4.2 Study Area, Duration and Data.....................................................................64
4.3 Hypotheses and Experiments........................................................................67
4.4 Parameters in the Model...............................................................................67
4.5 Agents in the Model..........................................................................................71
4.6 Decision to Offend............................................................................................73
5.0 Analysis.............................................................................................................76
6.0 Findings.............................................................................................................79
6.1 General Description of Model Outcomes.....................................................79
6.2 Testing Routine Activity Theory..................................................................82
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6.3 Spatial Distribution of Street Robberies across Places.................................84
6.4 Some Comments on the Robustness of the Model.......................................90
7.0 Discussion.........................................................................................................91
8.0 Conclusion........................................................................................................94
Chapter 4: The Spatio-Temporal Aspects of Routine Activities and Crime..............96
1.0 Introduction.......................................................................................................96
2.0 Theoretical Background....................................................................................99
2.1 Criminological Foundations for the Original Street Robbery Model...........99
2.2. Background on the Spatio-temporal Nature of Human Activity...............100
2.3 Hypotheses..................................................................................................106
3.0 Research Design..............................................................................................108
3.1 Agent-based Modeling and the Implementation Software.........................108
3.2 Data.............................................................................................................109
3.3 Agent Activity Spaces in the Model...........................................................112
3.4 Experiments................................................................................................116
4.0 Implementation Model....................................................................................117
4.1 Model Versions...........................................................................................119
5.0 Analysis...........................................................................................................122
6.0 Findings...........................................................................................................123
6.1 Descriptive Analysis...................................................................................123
6.2 Hypothesis Test Results..............................................................................126
6.6 Sensitivity Test Results...............................................................................142
6.7 Explanations for the Emergent Patterns......................................................143
7.0 Discussion and Conclusion.............................................................................144
Chapter 5: Discussion and Conclusions...................................................................150
5.0 Background.....................................................................................................150
5.1 Major Questions and Findings........................................................................151
5.2 Significance of the Research...........................................................................156
5.3 Assessing the Model Results..........................................................................159
5.4 Possible Limitations of the Research..............................................................160
5.5 Next Steps.......................................................................................................163
Appendices................................................................................................................166
Appendix 1: Street Robbery Model Documentation: Simple Version...............166
Appendix 2: Street Robbery Model Documentation: Temporal and Activity Space
Versions................................................................................................................181
Appendix 3: Street Robbery Model: Simple Version Code................................206
Appendix 4: Street Robbery Model: Temporal Version Code..........................232
Appendix 5: Street Robbery Model: Activity Space Version Code...................264
Appendix 6: Java Code to Develop Activity Nodes............................................300
Appendix 7: Visual Basic Code to Identify Paths Among Activity Nodes.........305
Bibliography.............................................................................................................324

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List of Tables

Table 2-1: Parameters in the Model…………...……………………........................27
Table 2-2: Outcome Data from Model………………………………………….......29
Table 2-3: Implementation Versions of the Conceptual Street Robbery Model...…36
Table 3-1: Formalization of Theoretical Concepts……………………………...60-61
Table 3-2: Outcome Data from Model………………………………………...……66
Table 3-3: Experimental Conditions…………...……………………………...……67
Table 3-4: Parameters in the Model…………………………………………...…....69
Table 3-5: Sample Assignment of Time away from Home for the 40% Experimental
Condition…………………………………………………………………………….72
Table 3-6: Societal-level Model Outcomes……...……………………………...….80
Table 3-7: Change in Street Robbery Events across Experimental Conditions….....83
Table 3-8: Post Hoc Tests of Mean Differences (seed = 100)………………......….84
Table 3-9: Place-level Model Outcomes………………………………...………….85
Table 3-10: Parameter Testing Results……………….………………………...……91
Table 4-1: Parameters in the Model………………………………………...……..111
Table 4-2: Experimental Conditions: Three Versions..……………………...……116
Table 4-3: Implementation Versions of the Conceptual Street Robbery Model….120
Table 4-4: Societal-level Model Outcomes…...…………………………….…….125
Table 4-5: ANOVA for Street Robbery Events across Versions and Experimental
Conditions…………………………………………………………………………..127
Table 4-6: Post Hoc Tests of Mean Differences by Experimental Condition (seed =
100)…………………………………………………………………………………129
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