Exploring the Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Iceland using System Dynamics Simulation

80 Pages·2016·1.04 MB·English

Exploring the Diffusion of Alternative
Fuel Vehicles in Iceland using System
Dynamics Simulation
Lilja Björg Guðmundsdóttir
Thesis of 30 ETCS credits
Master of Science in Engineering Management
June 2016

Exploring the Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles in
Iceland using System Dynamics Simulation
Lilja Björg Guðmundsdóttir
Thesis of 30 ECTS credits submitted to the School of Science and Engineering
at Reykjavík University in partial fulfillment of
the requirements for the degree of
Master of Science in Engineering Management
June 2016
Supervisor:
Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson, Supervisor
PhD, Reykjavik University
Hlynur Stefánsson, Supervisor
PhD, Reykjavik University
Examiner:
Sigríður Sigurðardóttir, Examiner
Phd,
Copyright
Lilja Björg Guðmundsdóttir
June 2016
Exploring the Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles in
Iceland using System Dynamics Simulation
Lilja Björg Guðmundsdóttir
30 ECTS thesis submitted to the School of Science and Engineering
at Reykjavík University in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Science in Engineering Management.
June 2016
Student:
Lilja Björg Guðmundsdóttir
Supervisor:
Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson
Hlynur Stefánsson
Examiner:
Sigríður Sigurðardóttir
The undersigned hereby grants permission to the Reykjavík University Li-
brary to reproduce single copies of this project report entitled Exploring the
Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Iceland using System Dynamics
Simulation and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific
research purposes only.
The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with
the copyright in the project report, and except as herein before provided, nei-
ther the project report nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or
otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author’s
prior written permission.
Date
Lilja Björg Guðmundsdóttir
Master of Science
Exploring the Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Iceland
using System Dynamics Simulation
Lilja Björg Guðmundsdóttir
June 2016
Abstract
In this paper we present a simulation model that was made for the United
States but has been adjusted to Icelandic situation. The model captures the
coevolution of alternative fuel vehicles and corresponding refueling infras-
tructure. The emissions from road transport and possible emission reduction
was explored along with associated cost. The possible emission reduction
was explored through scenarios where different alternative fuel vehicles are
subsidized. Results imply that incentives for alternative fuel vehicles and
theircorrespondinginfrastructurecould help reduceemissionfromthetrans-
port sector. The results also suggest that offering incentives for all available
alternative fuel vehicles reduces emission fastest but offering incentives for
onlybatteryelectricvehiclesisthecheapestwayofreducingemissions.
Rannsókn á innleiðing vistvænna bíla á Íslandi með notkun kviks
kerfislíkans
Lilja Björg Guðmundsdóttir
Júní 2016
Útdráttur
Í þessari ritgerð er kynnt hermunarlíkan sem var upphaflega gert fyrir Banda-
ríkin en hefur verið aðlagað að íslenskum aðstæðum. Líkanið nær utan um
hvernig vistvænir bílar og samsvarandi eldsneytisstöðvar þróast saman. Út-
blástur frá vegasamgöngum var rannsakaður með uppsetningu á nokkrum
sviðsmyndum í líkaninu þar sem mismunandi tegundir vistvænna bíla eru
styrktir til að auka hlut þeirra í bifreiðaflotanum. Niðurstöður benda til þess
að styrkir/hvatar geta hjálpað til við að draga úr útblæstri. Einnig benda
niðurstöðurtilþessaðmeðþvíaðbjóðastyrki/hvatatilallrategundavistvænna
bíla geti dregið mest úr útblæstri en ódýrast væri að styrkja einungis raf-
magnsbíla.
Idedicatethisthesistomyson,ArnarValurFriðriksson