Experimentation, validation, and uncertainty analysis for engineers PDF
Preview Experimentation, validation, and uncertainty analysis for engineers
(cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ffirs.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pagei EXPERIMENTATION, VALIDATION, AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERS (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ffirs.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pageiii EXPERIMENTATION, VALIDATION, AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERS FOURTH EDITION (cid:2) (cid:2) HUGHW.COLEMANandW.GLENNSTEELE (cid:2) (cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ffirs.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pageiv Thiseditionfirstpublished2018 ©2018JohnWiley&Sons,Inc. EditionHistory JohnWiley&Sons(1e,1989) JohnWiley&Sons(2e,1999) JohnWiley&Sons(3e,2009) Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,in anyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,exceptaspermittedby law.Adviceonhowtoobtainpermissiontoreusematerialfromthistitleisavailableathttp://www.wiley.com/go/ permissions. 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Title:Experimentation,validation,anduncertaintyanalysisforengineers/byHughW.Coleman andW.GlennSteele. Othertitles:Experimentationanduncertaintyanalysisforengineers Description:Fourthedition.|Hoboken,NJ,USA:Wiley,[2018]|Firsteditionentitled:Experimentationand uncertaintyanalysisforengineers.|Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.| Identifiers:LCCN2017055307(print)|LCCN2017056271(ebook)|ISBN9781119417668(pdf)| ISBN9781119417705(epub)|ISBN9781119417514(cloth) Subjects:LCSH:Engineering—Experiments.|Uncertainty. Classification:LCCTA153(ebook)|LCCTA153.C662018(print)| DDC620.0072—dc23 LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2017055307 CoverDesign:Wiley Setin10/12ptandTimesLTStdbySPiGlobal,Chennai,India 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 (cid:2) (cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ffirs.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pagev Forourparents MableMorrisonColemanandMarionTempletonColeman and MaryEvansSteeleandWilburGlennSteele,Sr. whowererearedandcameofageduringtheGreatDepression. Theirworkethic,nurturing,support,andrespectforthevalueofeducation havealwaysbeenourfoundation. H.W.C W.G.S (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ftoc.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pagevii CONTENTS Preface xv (cid:2) (cid:2) 1 Experimentation,Errors,andUncertainty 1 1-1 Experimentation, 2 1-1.1 WhyIsExperimentationNecessary?, 2 1-1.2 DegreeofGoodnessandUncertaintyAnalysis, 3 1-1.3 ExperimentationandValidationofSimulations, 5 1-2 ExperimentalApproach, 6 1-2.1 QuestionstoBeConsidered, 7 1-2.2 PhasesofExperimentalProgram, 8 1-3 BasicConceptsandDefinitions, 8 1-3.1 ErrorsandUncertainties, 9 1-3.2 CategorizingandNamingErrorsandUncertainties, 13 1-3.3 EstimatingStandardUncertainties, 15 1-3.4 DeterminingCombinedStandardUncertainties, 16 1-3.5 ElementalSystematicErrorsandEffectsofCalibration, 18 1-3.6 ExpansionofConceptfrom“MeasurementUncertainty” to“ExperimentalUncertainty”, 20 1-3.7 RepetitionandReplication, 22 1-3.8 AssociatingaPercentageCoverageorConfidencewith UncertaintyEstimates, 24 1-4 ExperimentalResultsDeterminedfromaDataReduction EquationCombiningMultipleMeasuredVariables, 25 vii (cid:2) (cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ftoc.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pageviii viii CONTENTS 1-5 GuidesandStandards, 27 1-5.1 ExperimentalUncertaintyAnalysis, 27 1-5.2 ValidationofSimulations, 29 1-6 ANoteonNomenclature, 31 References, 31 Problems, 32 2 CoverageandConfidenceIntervalsforanIndividual MeasuredVariable 33 2-1 CoverageIntervalsfromtheMonteCarloMethodforaSingle MeasuredVariable, 34 2-2 ConfidenceIntervalsfromtheTaylorSeriesMethodforaSingle MeasuredVariable,OnlyRandomErrorsConsidered, 35 2-2.1 StatisticalDistributions, 35 2-2.2 TheGaussianDistribution, 36 2-2.3 ConfidenceIntervalsinGaussianParentPopulations, 42 2-2.4 ConfidenceIntervalsinSamplesfromGaussianParent Populations, 43 (cid:2) (cid:2) 2-2.5 ToleranceandPredictionIntervalsinSamplesfromGaussian ParentPopulations, 48 2-2.6 StatisticalRejectionofOutliersfromaSampleAssumed fromaGaussianParentPopulation, 51 2-3 ConfidenceIntervalsfromtheTaylorSeriesMethodfora SingleMeasuredVariable:RandomandSystematicErrors Considered, 55 2-3.1 TheCentralLimitTheorem, 55 2-3.2 SystematicStandardUncertaintyEstimation, 56 2-3.3 TheTSMExpandedUncertaintyofaMeasuredVariable, 58 2-3.4 TheTSMLarge-SampleExpandedUncertainty ofaMeasuredVariable, 61 2-4 UncertaintyofUncertaintyEstimatesandConfidenceIntervalLimits foraMeasuredVariable, 63 2-4.1 UncertaintyofUncertaintyEstimates, 63 2-4.2 ImplicationsoftheUncertaintyinLimitsofHighConfidence UncertaintyIntervalsUsedinAnalysisandDesign, 65 References, 67 Problems, 68 (cid:2) (cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ftoc.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pageix CONTENTS ix 3 UncertaintyinaResultDeterminedfromMultipleVariables 71 3-1 GeneralUncertaintyAnalysisvs.DetailedUncertaintyAnalysis, 72 3-2 MonteCarloMethodforPropagationofUncertainties, 73 3-2.1 UsingtheMCMinGeneralUncertaintyAnalysis, 73 3-2.2 UsingtheMCMinDetailedUncertaintyAnalysis, 75 3-3 TaylorSeriesMethodforPropagationofUncertainties, 78 3-3.1 GeneralUncertaintyAnalysisUsingtheTaylorSeries Method(TSM), 79 3-3.2 DetailedUncertaintyAnalysisUsingtheTaylorSeries Method(TSM), 80 3-4 DeterminingMCMCoverageIntervalsandTSMExpanded Uncertainty, 82 3-4.1 MCMCoverageIntervalsforaResult, 82 3-4.2 TSMExpandedUncertaintyofaResult, 85 3-5 GeneralUncertaintyAnalysisUsingtheTSMandMSMApproaches foraRough-walledPipeFlowExperiment, 87 3-5.1 TSMGeneralUncertaintyAnalysis, 88 3-5.2 MCMGeneralUncertaintyAnalysis, 89 3-5.3 ImplementationUsingaSpreadsheet, 89 (cid:2) (cid:2) 3-5.4 ResultsoftheAnalysis, 92 3-6 CommentsonImplementingDetailedUncertaintyAnalysis UsingaSpreadsheet, 95 References, 96 Problems, 97 4 GeneralUncertaintyAnalysisUsingtheTaylorSeries Method(TSM) 99 4-1 TSMApplicationtoExperimentPlanning, 100 4-2 TSMApplicationtoExperimentPlanning:SpecialFunctional Form, 103 4-3 UsingTSMUncertaintyAnalysisinPlanninganExperiment, 107 4-4 Example:AnalysisofProposedParticulateMeasuringSystem, 109 4-4.1 TheProblem, 109 4-4.2 ProposedMeasurementTechniqueandSystem, 109 4-4.3 AnalysisofProposedExperiment, 110 4-4.4 ImplicationsofUncertaintyAnalysisResults, 112 4-4.5 DesignChangesIndicatedbyUncertaintyAnalysis, 113 (cid:2) (cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ftoc.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pagex x CONTENTS 4-5 Example:AnalysisofProposedHeatTransferExperiment, 114 4-5.1 TheProblem, 114 4-5.2 TwoProposedExperimentalTechniques, 115 4-5.3 GeneralUncertaintyAnalysis:Steady-StateTechnique, 117 4-5.4 GeneralUncertaintyAnalysis:TransientTechnique, 121 4-5.5 ImplicationsofUncertaintyAnalysisResults, 123 4-6 ExamplesofPresentationofResultsfromActualApplications, 124 4-6.1 ResultsfromAnalysisofaTurbineTest, 124 4-6.2 ResultsfromAnalysisofaSolarThermalAbsorber/Thruster Test, 125 References, 126 Problems, 127 5 DetailedUncertaintyAnalysis:OverviewandDetermining RandomUncertaintiesinResults 131 5-1 UsingDetailedUncertaintyAnalysis, 131 5-2 DetailedUncertaintyAnalysis:OverviewofComplete Methodology, 134 (cid:2) 5-3 DeterminingRandomUncertaintyofExperimentalResult, 137 (cid:2) 5-3.1 Example:RandomUncertaintyDeterminationinCompressible FlowVenturiMeterCalibrationFacility, 139 5-3.2 Example:RandomUncertaintyDeterminationin Laboratory-ScaleAmbientTemperatureFlowTest Facility, 141 5-3.3 Example:RandomUncertaintyDeterminationinFull-Scale RocketEngineGroundTestFacility, 143 5-3.4 Summary, 146 References, 146 6 DetailedUncertaintyAnalysis:DeterminingSystematic UncertaintiesinResults 147 6-1 EstimatingSystematicUncertainties, 149 6-1.1 Example:EstimatingUncertaintyinPropertyValues, 152 6-1.2 Example:EstimatingSystematicUncertaintiesintheTurbulent HeatTransferTestFacility(THTTF), 153 6-1.3 Example:An“Optimum”CalibrationApproachUsedinaTest toDetermineTurbineEfficiency, 163 6-2 DeterminingSystematicUncertaintyofExperimentalResultIncluding CorrelatedSystematicErrorEffects, 165 6-2.1 Example:CorrelatedSystematicErrorEffectswith “%ofFullScale”(%FS)SystematicUncertainties, 168 (cid:2) (cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ftoc.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pagexi CONTENTS xi 6-2.2 Example:CorrelatedSystematicErrorEffectswith “%ofReading”SystematicUncertainties, 170 6-2.3 Example:CorrelatedSystematicErrorEffectswithSystematic UncertaintiesthatVarywithSetPoint, 171 6-2.4 Example:CorrelatedSystematicErrorEffectsWhenOnly SomeElementalSourcesAreCorrelated, 172 6-2.5 Example:CorrelatedSystematicErrorEffectsWhen DeterminingAverageVelocityofaFluidFlow, 176 6-3 ComparativeTesting, 177 6-3.1 ResultIsaDifferenceofTestResults, 178 6-3.2 ResultIsaRatioofTestResults, 181 6-4 SomeAdditionalConsiderationsinExperimentExecution, 183 6-4.1 ChoiceofTestPoints:Rectification, 183 6-4.2 ChoiceofTestSequence, 188 6-4.3 RelationshiptoStatisticalDesignofExperiments, 189 6-4.4 UseofaJitterProgram, 191 6-4.5 CommentsonTransientTesting, 193 6-4.6 CommentsonDigitalDataAcquisitionErrors, 193 References, 194 (cid:2) (cid:2) Problems, 195 7 DetailedUncertaintyAnalysis:ComprehensiveExamples 199 7-1 TSMComprehensiveExample:Sample-to-SampleExperiment, 199 7-1.1 TheProblem, 199 7-1.2 MeasurementSystem, 200 7-1.3 Zeroth-OrderReplication-LevelAnalysis, 201 7-1.4 First-OrderReplication-LevelAnalysis, 205 7-1.5 Nth-OrderReplication-LevelAnalysis, 206 7-2 TSMComprehensiveExample:UseofBalanceChecks, 207 7-3 ComprehensiveExample:DebuggingandQualificationofaTimewise Experiment, 210 7-3.1 OrdersofReplicationLevelinTimewiseExperiments, 211 7-3.2 Example, 212 7-4 ComprehensiveExample:HeatExchangerTestFacilityforSingleand ComparativeTests, 216 7-4.1 DeterminationoftheUncertaintyinqforaSingleCore Design, 219 7-4.2 DeterminationoftheUncertaintyinΔqforTwoCoreDesigns TestedSequentiallyUsingtheSameFacilityand Instrumentation, 224 (cid:2) (cid:2) TrimSize:6inx9in Coleman ftoc.tex V1-03/22/2018 4:25pm Pagexii xii CONTENTS 7-5 CaseStudy:ExamplesofSingleandComparativeTestsofNuclear PowerPlantResidualHeatRemovalHeatExchanger, 230 7-5.1 SingleTestResultsforanRHRHeatExchanger(HX1), 231 7-5.2 ComparativeTestApproachfortheDecreaseinFouling ResistanceandItsUncertainty, 234 References, 235 Problems, 235 8 TheUncertaintyAssociatedwiththeUseofRegressions 239 8-1 OverviewofLinearRegressionAnalysisandItsUncertainty, 240 8-1.1 UncertaintyinCoefficients, 241 8-1.2 UncertaintyinY fromRegressionModel, 241 8-1.3 (X,Y)VariablesAreFunctions, 243 i i 8-2 DeterminingandReportingRegressionUncertainty, 243 8-2.1 MCMRegressionUncertaintyDetermination, 244 8-2.2 TSMRegressionUncertaintyDetermination, 244 8-2.3 ReportingRegressionUncertainties, 244 (cid:2) 8-3 MethodofLeastSquaresRegression, 246 (cid:2) 8-4 First-OrderRegressionExample:MCMApproachtoDetermine RegressionUncertainty, 249 8-5 RegressionExamples:TSMApproachtoDetermineRegression Uncertainty, 252 8-5.1 UncertaintyinFirst-OrderCoefficients, 252 8-5.2 UncertaintyinY fromFirst-OrderRegression, 253 8-5.3 UncertaintyinY fromHigher-OrderRegressions, 255 8-5.4 UncertaintyinY fromRegressionsinWhichXandY Are FunctionalRelations, 255 8-5.5 UncertaintyAssociatedwithMultivariateLinear Regression, 257 8-6 ComprehensiveTSMExample:RegressionsandTheirUncertaintiesin aFlowTest, 259 8-6.1 ExperimentalApparatus, 261 8-6.2 PressureTransducerCalibrationandUncertainty, 261 8-6.3 VenturiDischargeCoefficientandItsUncertainty, 265 8-6.4 FlowRateandItsUncertaintyinaTest, 269 References, 273 Problems, 273 (cid:2)
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