Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data You Consume Every Day PDF
Preview Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data You Consume Every Day
EVERYDATA 221158 i-xiv 1-210 r4ga.indd i 2/8/16 5:58:50 PM 221158 i-xiv 1-210 r4ga.indd ii 2/8/16 5:58:50 PM EVERYDATA The MisinforMaTion hidden in The LiTTLe daTa You ConsuMe everY daY WhY Your gas Tank isn’T eMpTY, You’re noT beTTer Than average, and afriCa is bigger Than You Think John h. Johnson, phd, Mik e gLuCk and 221158 i-xiv 1-210 r4ga.indd iii 2/8/16 5:58:50 PM First published by Bibliomotion, Inc. 39 Harvard Street Brookline, MA 02445 Tel: 617- 934- 2427 www.bibliomotion.com Copyright © 2016 by John H. Johnson and Mike Gluck All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Johnson, John H., author. | Gluck, Mike, author. Title: Everydata : the misinformation hidden in the little data you consume every day / John H. Johnson, Mike Gluck. Description: First Edition. | Brookline, MA : Bibliomotion, 2016. Identifiers: LCCN 2015041504 (print) | LCCN 2016004445 (ebook) | ISBN 9781629561011 (hardback) | ISBN 9781629561028 (ebook) | ISBN 9781629561035 (enhanced ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Econometrics. | Consumer behavior. | BISAC: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Econometrics. | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Consumer Behavior. | SOCIAL SCIENCE / Popular Culture. | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving. Classification: LCC HB139 .J636 2016 (print) | LCC HB139 (ebook) | DDC 646.7001/5195—dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015041504 221158 i-xiv 1-210 r4ga.indd iv 2/8/16 5:58:50 PM Dedicated to the memory of my mom, Elizabeth Johnson, who read the newspaper with reckless abandon, always shared the most fascinating research studies, and inspired my intellectual curiosity. — John Johnson 221158 i-xiv 1-210 r4ga.indd v 2/8/16 5:58:50 PM 221158 i-xiv 1-210 r4ga.indd vi 2/8/16 5:58:50 PM Contents Foreword ix Preface xi 1 Data, Data, Everywhere: An Introduction to Everydata 1 2 The Challenger Challenge: How Sampling Can Affect Results 9 3 Red State Blues: Averages and Aggregates— A Closer Look at Summary Statistics 27 4 Are You Smarter Than an iPhone- Using, Radiohead- Loving Republican?: Understanding Correlation Versus Causation 45 5 In Statistics We Trust: Is What You’re Seeing True? 65 6 Shrinking Africa: Misrepresentation and Misinterpretation 83 7 Spoonfed Data: When Cherry Picking Goes Bananas 105 8 Predicting Disaster: Forecasting the Future 123 9 It’s a Jungle Out There: Putting It All Together 143 Glossary 157 Notes 161 Index 193 Acknowledgments 203 About the Author 205 221158 i-xiv 1-210 r4ga.indd vii 2/8/16 5:58:50 PM 221158 i-xiv 1-210 r4ga.indd viii 2/8/16 5:58:50 PM Foreword In the spring of 2010, the National Football League owners wanted, among many other things, to extend the regular season by two games. As executive director of the NFL Players Association (NFLPA), I knew this was a bad idea. More games equal more injuries in a game that already has a 100 percent injury rate. More injuries would mean more careers cut short for athletes whose average careers are already just a little more than three years. Our union faced serious concerns about player safety, compensation, and how to protect the men who, every week during the season, put themselves on the line in America’s most beloved sport. Professional football is a multibillion-dollar industry— and grow- ing. But in 2010–11, facing the first potential work stoppage in over a decade, I needed a sure way to prove that the season needed to remain at sixteen games. I called John Johnson. John is an expert on economics, statistics, and data, and he makes even the most complicated data concepts seem simple and straightfor- ward. In short, he is probably one of the smartest guys I know. He is able to explain things carefully and thoughtfully and tailor his explanations to the level of any audience and, most importantly, he’s never boring! Like every football fan in America, the NFLPA wanted to save the upcoming NFL season, so we gave John our data. John and his col- leagues developed models that showed when and how often players were injured. They identified the precise plays that had the most seri- ous injuries (leading to the “kickoff rule,” which had a dramatic impact on player safety). They estimated the potential economic losses from extending the NFL season to eighteen games— using data to predict 221158 i-xiv 1-210 r4ga.indd ix 2/8/16 5:58:50 PM
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