EVALUATING ENVIRONMENT IN INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT This book provides novel and in-depth perspectives on evaluating environment and sustainability issues in developing countries. Evaluating Environment in International Development focuses on the approaches and experiences of leading international organizations, not-for-profits, and multilat- eral and bilateral aid agencies to illustrate how systematic evaluation is an essential tool for providing evidence for decision-makers. Moving beyond projects and pro- grammes, it explores normative work on the environment as well as environmental consequences of economic and social development efforts. This new edition reflects on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Sustainable Development Goals and considers how they have influenced efforts in a wide range of countries and what the implications are for evaluation. It also explores ways in which Big Data and geospatial approaches might be utilized. Significantly updated throughout to reflect recent developments in climate change research, and on the implications of the 2020 pandemic, this volume will be of great interest to students and scholars of environmental studies, development stud- ies, international relations, sustainable development and evaluation, as well as practi- tioners in international organizations and development and environmental NGOs. Juha I. Uitto is a leading thinker and practitioner in environmental evaluation. Since 2014, he has been director of the Independent Evaluation Office of the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Prior to coming to his current position, he worked for more than two decades on evaluation and research on environment and development, most recently in the UNDP Independent Evaluation Office. “This updated edition builds on the key message put forward by its editor, Juha I. Uitto: ‘Evaluation must up its game.’ This makes the book a great contribu- tion to long-term and current events thinking on evaluation, environment and development.” —Jean-Marc Coicaud, Rutgers School of Law, State University of New Jersey, USA “This second edition addresses the challenges of identifying the intended and unintended consequences of development interventions on the environment, particularly those driven by the search of growth. It calls for a truly systemic view of the interaction between natural and human systems. It provides inno- vative interpretative frameworks and examples of evaluations that contribute to environmentally sound sustainable development. A must-read as countries redouble efforts to recover from the COVID-19 crisis with the aim of building forward better.” —Oscar A. Garcia, Director, Independent Evaluation Office, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) “For thinkers and practitioners alike, this volume brings together state-of-the- art thinking in evaluation related to environment, while combining it with real-world experiences and lessons on the ground. The scholarship and wisdom of this volume is illustrated by the range of topics it covers in environmental evaluation that cover, for instance, the challenges of examining trans-boundary problems on the one hand and precisely defined disaster risk reduction on the other. I recommend this collection highly.” —Jyotsna Puri, Director of the Environment, Climate, Gender and Social Inclusion Division, at the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) EVALUATING ENVIRONMENT IN INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Second Edition Edited by Juha I. Uitto Second edition published 2021 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN and by Routledge 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2021 selection and editorial matter, Juha I. Uitto; individual chapters, the contributors The right of Juha I. Uitto to be identified as the author of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. First edition published by Routledge 2014 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Uitto, Juha I., editor. Title: Evaluating environment in international development / edited by Juha I. Uitto. Description: 2. | Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2020044247 (print) | LCCN 2020044248 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Sustainable development. | Sustainable development–International cooperation. | Climatic changes. | Climatic changes–International cooperation. Classification: LCC HC79.E5 E849 2021 (print) | LCC HC79.E5 (ebook) | DDC 338.9/27–dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020044247 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020044248 ISBN: 978-0-367-55709-6 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-367-55711-9 (pbk) ISBN: 978-1-003-09482-1 (ebk) Typeset in Bembo by SPi Global, India CONTENTS List of figures viii List of tables x Foreword by Michael Quinn Patton xii Preface by Juha I. Uitto xv List of contributors xvii PART I Introduction and conceptual background 1 1 Evaluating environment in international development: an introduction 3 Juha I. Uitto 2 A global public goods perspective on environment and poverty 25 Rob D. van den Berg 3 Evaluation at the nexus: evaluating sustainable development in the 2020s 46 Andy Rowe 4 Poverty, climate change and disaster risk reduction: too complex to evaluate? 61 Hazel Todd and David Todd vi Contents PART II Approaches and challenges in evaluating environment and sustainable development 77 5 Using big data and geospatial approaches in evaluating environmental interventions 79 Anupam Anand and Geeta Batra 6 Multiple actors and confounding factors: evaluating impact in complex social-ecological systems 93 Aaron E. Zazueta and Jeneen R. Garcia 7 Assessing progress towards impacts in environmental programmes using the field review of outcomes to impacts methodology 111 David Todd and Rob Craig 8 Meta-analysis of climate mitigation evaluations 137 Christine Wörlen 9 A programme theory approach to evaluating normative environmental interventions 156 Segbedzi Norgbey and Michael Spilsbury 10 From evaluation of joint programmes to joint evaluation of SDGs-ready interventions: lessons from the joint GEF-UNDP evaluation of the Small Grants Programme 180 Carlo Carugi and Heather Bryant 11 Evaluating the poverty–environment nexus in Africa 197 Michael Stocking 12 Small grants, big impacts: aggregation challenges 219 Sulan Chen and Juha I. Uitto 13 Green economy performance of environmental initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean 237 Ronal Gainza and Simon Lobach 14 Evaluating international support for transboundary aquifer management programmes 265 Alan Fox Contents vii 15 Disaster risk management in the SDG era 278 Vijayalakshmi Vadivelu 16 The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research approach to evaluation of climate change, environment, and natural resource management 299 Roberto La Rovere Index 315 FIGURES 2.1 Evaluation Criteria 38 4.1 Potential Effects of Climate Change on Poverty Reduction 63 4.2 Some Major Disasters in Asia-Pacific 1970–2016 66 4.3 Initial Theory of Change for DiMSOG 70 4.4 Overlaps Between Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation 70 5.1 Globally Distributed GEF-Supported Protected Areas were Overlaid with Sites of Conservation Importance 82 5.2 Geocoded Location Information for GEF Project Implementation Areas 83 5.3 Data Used in the Uganda Case Study 84 5.4 Trends and Comparison 86 5.5 Study Area Map of the 12 PAs within Kenya Included in the Analysis 88 5.6 Land Cover Classifications for the Reserve 89 7.1 The Relationship between the Key Elements in a Project Theory of Change 112 7.2 Steps in the Field-Based Review of Outcomes to Impacts Assessment Process 113 7.3 Steps in Conducting a Field Review of Outcomes to Impacts Analysis with Group or Individual Key Informants 114 7.4 Theory of Change for Intermediate State 3 122 Figures ix 7.5 Theory of Change for Intermediate State 1 127 7.6 Theory of Change for Intermediate State 2 129 7.7 Overall Review of Outcomes to Impacts Assessment of SEYMEMP Progress towards Impacts 132 7.8 Overall SEYMEMP Theory of Change 135 8.1 Evaluation Framework of Tokle and Uitto (2009) 142 8.2 Evaluation Framework of Tokle and Uitto (2009) with Stakeholder Groups 143 8.3 Example for Mapping the Barriers in the Barrier Circle Diagram 150 8.4 The Intervention Circle 151 8.5 Barrier Circle and Intervention Circle Diagram 152 9.1 A Set of Generic Results Chains, which can also be Termed ‘Causal Pathways’, ‘Impact Pathways’ or a ‘Theory of Change’ 161 9.2 A Schematic Single ‘Impact Pathway’ Showing Intermediate States, Assumptions and Impact Drivers 162 9.3 ‘Synergies Decisions’ Theory of Change (Shown in Part) 166 9.4 Theory of Change – Joint Geophysical Imaging Methodology for Geothermal Reservoir Assessment 169 9.5 A Generalized Representation of Impact Pathways Relating the Centre for International Forestry Research Criteria and Indicators Project 171 9.6 Major Impact Pathways through Forest Stewardship Council Certification Processes 172 9.7 Theory of Change – Common Problems in Capturing Performance at the Programme Level 175 12.1 SGP Management Diagram 223