EV-apractical approach [Vandevoord] - Earned Schedule

18 Pages·2009·0.61 MB·English

Brussels, Boston University, 23/06/09
EEAARRNNEEDD VVAALLUUEE
A Practical Apppproach
PPMMII BBeellggiiuumm
SStteepphhaann VVaannddeevvoooorrddee,, IInngg..
SStteepphhaann VVaannddeevvoooorrddee,, IInngg..
DDiirreeccttoorr ooff PPrrooggrraammss && EEvveennttss
MMaannaaggeerr LLTT BBEE
sstteepphhaann..vvaannddeevvoooorrddee@@ppmmii--bbeellggiiuumm..bbee
sstteepphhaann..vvaannddeevvoooorrddee@@ffaabbrriiccoomm--ggttii..ccoomm
++ 3322 ((00)) 447788 225544776611
CCOONNTTEENNTT
Introduction to Earned Value
Applying Earned Value Management
Experiences
Special topic: Earned Schedule
23/06/2009 EV 2
WWhhaatt aabboouutt TTiimmee FFoorreeccaassttiinngg??
PMI Practice Standard for Earned Value Management, 2005
VARIANCE  Schedule Variance = SV = EV – PV                          < 0 = delay          > 0 = ahead
ANALYSIS Schedule Performance Index = SPI = EV / PV       < 1 = delay          > 1 = ahead
Time Estimate at Completion = EACt = PD / SPI
FORECAST
PD = Planned Duration
PMBOK Guide, Fourth Edition
Schedule Variance = SV = EV – PV                          < 0 = delay          > 0 = ahead
VARIANCE 
SSchheddulle PPerfformance IInddex = SSPPII = EEVV // PPVV       << 11 = ddellay          >> 11 = ahheadd
ANALYSIS
Applied onto the critical path
FORECAST ???
23/06/2009 EV 3
SSVV – SSPPII RReevviissiitteedd
Schedule Variance  Schedule Performance Index
SV = EV – PV                           SPI = EV / PV                          
< 0    delay   < 1    delay  
= 0    on time         = 1    on time        
> 0    ahead > 1    ahead
By definition at end of project :  By definition at end of project : 
EV = total PV ( BAC ) EV = total PV ( BAC )
Thus SV = PV – PV = 0 Thus SPI = PV / PV = 1
Shows perfect performance!!! Shows perfect performance!!!
What if we are late? What if we are late?
SV is espressed in Euros SPI is dimensionless
Difficult to understand Easier to understand
23/06/2009 EV 4
RReeaall LLiiffee LLaattee PPrroojjeecctt
Sep/03 Nov/03 Jan/04 Mar/04 May/04 Jul/04
0 
‐110000 
SV
‐200 
Starting Mei/04:
‐300 
‐440000 
positive trend 
‐500  for SV & SPI
‐600 
… but we are 
1.00
slipping further
0.95
Something is 
0.90 wrong
0.85
SPI
0.80
00.755
0.70
23/06/2009 EV 5
AAnnootthheerr MMeetthhoodd
PMI Practice Standard for Earned Value Management
Box 3-1:
Time-Based Schedule Measures…
An Emerging EVM Practice
DDeessccrriibbeess bbaassiicc pprriinncciipplleess ooff aa nneeww mmeetthhoodd
called “Earned Schedule”
Provides foundation for further development
of and research intended to result in Earned
Schedule acceptance as a valid extension to
EV
23/06/2009 EV 6
EEaarrnneedd SScchheedduullee
Created by Walt Lipke, Schedule is Different, The Measurable News, Summer 2003
PPVV
€
SV
EV
time
AD PD
ES SV(t)
EEaarrnneedd SScchheedduullee ((EESS)) = tthhee ttiimmee wwhheenn tthhee EEVV wwaass ttoo bbee aacchhiieevveedd
23/06/2009 EV 7
EEaarrnneedd SScchheedduullee
SScchheedduullee VVaarriiaannccee TTiimmee == SSVV((tt)) == EESS –– AADD
AD = actual duration
< 0 = delay     0 > on time     0 = ahead
VARIANCE 
Expressed in time units
ANALYSIS
Schedule Performance Index  Time = SPI(t) = ES / AD          
< 1 = delay     1 = on time     > 1 = ahead
FORECAST Time Estimate at Completion = EACt = PD / SPI(t)
To Complete Performance Index Time 
AASSSSEESSSS 
TSPI(t) =  ( PD – ES ) / ( PD – AD ) if target = PD
REALISM
TSPI(t) =  ( PD – ES ) / ( LRD – AD ) if target is Latest Revised Duration
23/06/2009 EV 8
RReeaall LLiiffee LLaattee PPrroojjeecctt
0  0.000
‐0.500
‐100 
‐1.000
‐200 
‐1.500
SV
‐300 
SV(t)
‐22.000000
‐400 
‐2.500
‐500 
‐3.000
‐600  ‐3.500
23/06/2009 EV 9
RReeaall LLiiffee LLaattee PPrroojjeecctt
1.000
00.995500
0.900
00.885500
0.800 SPI(t)
SPI
00.775500
0.700
0.650
0.600
23/06/2009 EV 10