European Energy Security: Analysing the EU-Russia Energy Security Regime in Terms of Interdependence Theory

276 Pages·2012·2 MB·English

by  Dr. Nataliya Esakova (auth.)

Globale Gesellschaft
und internationale Beziehungen
Edited by
Th. Jäger, Cologne, Germany
Nataliya Esakova
European Energy Security
Analysing the EU-Russia
Energy Security Regime in Terms
of Interdependence Theory
Dr. Nataliya Esakova
Frankfurt, Germany
ISBN 978-3-531-19200-0 ISBN 978-3-531-19201-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-531-19201-7
The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie;
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Table of contents 5
Für die Unterstützung bei der Erstellung dieser Doktorarbeit bedanke ich mich
sehr herzlich bei meinem Doktorvater Herrn Professor Dr. Thomas Jäger.
Table of contents 7
Table of Contents

A Introduction...............................................................................................15
I Research Subject.......................................................................................15
1 Energy interdependence..............................................................................15
2 Energy security regimes..............................................................................16
3 Energy security regime change...................................................................16
4 EU-Russia Energy Dialogue as a study sample..........................................17
5 Out of scope................................................................................................18
a) Subject and timeframe................................................................................18
b) The consequences of the economic crisis...................................................19
II Methodology..............................................................................................19
1 Why interdependence theory......................................................................19
2 Application of the principal concepts of the interdependence theory.........22
3 Application of the international regime theory...........................................25
III Structure and sources...............................................................................26
1 Theoretical framework................................................................................26
2 Empirical analysis.......................................................................................30

B Theoretical framework.............................................................................35
I Energy security concept...........................................................................35
1 Recent evolution of energy security definition...........................................35
2 Energy security definitions.........................................................................39
8 Table of contents
a) Physical supply disruption definition..........................................................39
b) Non-emergency price level.........................................................................41
c) Energy security as national security and welfare........................................42
d) Military concept vs. economic concept.......................................................44
3 Energy security in realism and complex interdependence..........................47
a) Energy security under realist conditions.....................................................48
b) Energy security under complex interdependence conditions......................50
II Energy interdependence...........................................................................53
1 Sensitivity and vulnerability interdepedence in energy markets.................53
a) Sensitivity and vulnerability in interdependence theory.............................53
b) Sensitivity and vulnerability in energy context...........................................54
c) Factors measuring sensitivity and vulnerability interdependence in
energy context.............................................................................................55
2 Differences between oil and gas market.....................................................60
a) Special considerations for oil market..........................................................60
b) Special considerations for gas market.........................................................61
3 Asymmetric interdependence......................................................................65
a) Manipulating asymmetric interdependence................................................65
b) Energy power..............................................................................................68
c) Origin and types of energy wars.................................................................72
III Energy security regimes...........................................................................74
1 Energy security regime characteristics........................................................74
a) International regime theory.........................................................................74
b) Energy security regime characteristics........................................................78
c) Differences between “pure” and “dialogue” energy security regimes........84
2 Energy regime formation............................................................................85
a) Regime formation theory............................................................................85
b) Formation of energy security regimes........................................................94
3 Sample energy security regimes...............................................................102
Table of contents 9
a) Energy producers’ regime: OPEC.............................................................102
b) Energy consumers’ regime: IEA...............................................................105
c) A global energy security regime?.............................................................107
IV Regime change and energy security......................................................109
1 Regime change theory...............................................................................109
2 Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye’s regime change explanation
models.......................................................................................................112
3 Energy security regime change.................................................................115
a) Economic process regime change explanation model...............................115
b) Overall structure regime change explanation model.................................121
c) Issue structure regime change explanation model.....................................127
d) International organisation regime change explanation model...................130
V Conclusions..............................................................................................131

C The development of the energy security regime between Russia
and Europe..............................................................................................136
I General economic developments in international energy markets.....136
1 Energy reserves and prices........................................................................136
a) Development of energy prices..................................................................137
b) Development of energy demand...............................................................138
c) World energy resources............................................................................141
2 New resource nationalism.........................................................................147
a) Redistribution of power between national and international energy
groups.......................................................................................................147
b) Characteristics of national companies.......................................................148
3 Assessment in terms of interdepenence theory.........................................148
10 Table of contents
II EU-Russia interdependence...................................................................148
1 EU dependence on energy imports...........................................................148
a) Background...............................................................................................148
b) EU dependence on energy imports...........................................................148
c) Russia’s energy potential..........................................................................148
2 Sensitivity and vulnerability interdependence between Russia
and Europe................................................................................................148
a) Sensitivity and vulnerability interdependence between Russia
and the EU................................................................................................148
b) Sensitivity and vulnerability interdependence between Russia
and transit states........................................................................................148
c) Conclusions...............................................................................................148
III EU – Russia energy security regime......................................................148
1 EU-Russia cooperation in energy security................................................148
a) Background: EU energy policy.................................................................148
b) Instruments of the EU-Russia energy security regime..............................148
2 Energy security regime characterisation in terms of international
regime theory............................................................................................148
a) Regime scope............................................................................................148
b) Regime’s objectives..................................................................................148
c) Issue areas.................................................................................................148
d) Regime’s actors.........................................................................................148
e) Sub-regimes..............................................................................................148
f) Formality...................................................................................................148
3 Characterisation in terms of interdependence theory................................148
a) Hierarchy of issues....................................................................................148
b) Roles of states...........................................................................................148
c) Issue density..............................................................................................148
d) Military and energy power, linkages.........................................................148
e) Focus on security issues............................................................................148
f) Role of international institutions...............................................................148
Table of contents 11
g) Costs of regime disruption........................................................................148
h) Role of distribution of power....................................................................148
i) Realism or complex interdependence.......................................................148
4 Energy security regime formation.............................................................148
a) Regime formation mechanism in relations between Russia and
Western Europe.........................................................................................148
b) Regime formation mechanism in relations between Russia and
transit countries.........................................................................................148
IV Regime change implementation.............................................................148
1 Russia’s foreign energy policy..................................................................148
a) Russia’s energy policy..............................................................................148
b) Nationalisation..........................................................................................148
c) Russia’s internationalisation policy..........................................................148
d) Pipeline competition for Caspian supplies................................................148
e) War in Georgia and its consequences for the EU energy security............148
2 Change in regime between Russia and transit states.................................148
a) General considerations..............................................................................148
b) Energy security regime change example: Ukraine....................................148
3 Creating a new energy regime..................................................................148
a) Russia’s Conceptual Approach to the New Legal Framework for
International Energy Cooperation.............................................................148
b) The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation..................................................148
c) The Gas Exporting Countries Forum........................................................148
V Energy Dialogue regime change characterisation................................148
1 Regime change explanation model...........................................................148
a) Economic process regime change explanation model...............................148
b) Overall power structure regime change explanation model......................148
c) Issue structure regime change explanation model.....................................148
d) International organisation regime change explanation model...................148
2 Conclusion................................................................................................148