European Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation: A Spatial Planning Perspective

350 Pages·2013·170.738 MB·English

by  Philipp Schmidt-Thome, Stefan Greiving

European Climate
Vulnerabilities and
Adaptation

European Climate
Vulnerabilities and
Adaptation
A Spatial Planning Perspective
Edited by
Philipp Schmidt-Thome´
Geological Survey of Finland (GTK), Espoo, Finland
Stefan Greiving
Institute of Spatial Planning (IRPUD), TU Dortmund University, Germany
Thiseditionfirstpublished2013©2013byJohnWiley&Sons,Ltd
TextsandmapsstemmingfromresearchprojectsundertheESPONprogrammepresentedinthisbookdonotnecessarilyreflectthe
opinionoftheESPONMonitoringCommittee.
Registeredoffice:JohnWiley&Sons,Ltd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UK
Editorialoffices: 9600GarsingtonRoad,Oxford,OX42DQ,UK
TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UK
111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030-5774,USA
Fordetailsofourglobaleditorialoffices,forcustomerservicesandforinformationabouthowtoapplyforpermissiontoreusethe
copyrightmaterialinthisbookpleaseseeourwebsiteatwww.wiley.com/wiley-blackwell.
TherightoftheauthortobeidentifiedastheauthorofthisworkhasbeenassertedinaccordancewiththeUKCopyright,Designsand
PatentsAct1988.
Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyany
means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,exceptaspermittedbytheUKCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct
1988,withoutthepriorpermissionofthepublisher.
Designationsusedbycompaniestodistinguishtheirproductsareoftenclaimedastrademarks.Allbrandnamesandproductnamesusedin
thisbookaretradenames,servicemarks,trademarksorregisteredtrademarksoftheirrespectiveowners.Thepublisherisnotassociated
withanyproductorvendormentionedinthisbook.
LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthor(s)haveusedtheirbesteffortsinpreparingthisbook,theymake
norepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracyorcompletenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimany
impliedwarrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Itissoldontheunderstandingthatthepublisherisnotengagedin
renderingprofessionalservicesandneitherthepublishernortheauthorshallbeliablefordamagesarisingherefrom.Ifprofessionaladvice
orotherexpertassistanceisrequired,theservicesofacompetentprofessionalshouldbesought.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Schmidt-Thome´,Philipp.
Europeanclimatevulnerabilitiesandadaptation:aspatialplanningperspective/editors,PhilippSchmidt-Thome´,StefanGreiving.
pagescm
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-470-97741-5(hardback)
1. Climaticchanges–Europe. 2. Climaticchanges–Governmentpolicy–Europe. 3. Climaticchanges–Economic
aspects–Europe. 4. Europe–Climate. I. Greiving,Stefan. II. Title.
QC903.2.E85S362013
363.738’742094–dc23
2013008530
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmaynotbeavailableinelectronicbooks.
Coverimage:SuppliedbyiStock.
CoverdesignbyDanJubb.
Typesetin10.5/12.5ptMinionbyLaserwordsPrivateLimited,Chennai,India.
12013
Contents
Biographies xi
Acknowledgements xiii
ListofContributors xv
Chapter 1 Introducing the pan-European approach to integration on climate change
impacts and vulnerabilities into regional development perspectives 1
PhilippSchmidt-Thom´eandStefanGreiving
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Furtherresearch 3
1.3 Structureofthebook 4
References 4
Chapter 2 Methodology for an integrated climate change vulnerability assessment 5
JohannesLu¨ckenko¨tter,ChristianLindnerandStefanGreiving
2.1 Introduction 5
2.2 Overviewofthemethodology 6
2.3 Methodologyindetail 7
2.4 Methodologicalreflections 13
2.5 Conclusion 14
References 14
Chapter 3 Identifying a typology of climate change in Europe 17
CarstenWalther,AnneHolstenandJu¨rgenP.Kropp
3.1 Introduction 17
3.2 Methodsapplied 18
3.3 Resultsanddiscussion 23
3.4 Conclusion 29
References 29
Chapter 4 Climate change exposure assessment of European regions 31
ChristianLindner,StefanGreivingandAnneHolsten
4.1 Introduction 31
4.2 Futureclimateprojections:theCCLMmodel 32
4.3 Indicatorsonexposuretoclimaticstimuli 33
v
vi Contents
4.4 PatternsofclimaticchangesacrossEurope 36
4.5 Conclusion 48
References 48
Chapter 5 Physical, environmental, social and cultural impacts of climate change
on Europe’s regions 51
JohannesLu¨ckenko¨tter,ChristianLindner,FlorianFlexandStefanGreiving
5.1 Introduction 51
5.2 Physicalimpactsofclimatechange 52
5.3 Environmentalimpactsofclimatechange 59
5.4 Socialimpactsofclimatechange 71
5.5 Culturalimpactofclimatechange 80
References 89
Chapter 6 Economic impacts of climate change on Europe’s regions 95
JohannesLu¨ckenko¨tter,OveLangeland,BjørgLangset,EmmanouilTranos,
SiminDavoudiandChristianLindner
6.1 Introduction 96
6.2 Agricultureandforestry 96
6.3 Tourism 99
6.4 Energy 105
6.5 Combinedeconomicimpactofclimatechange 110
References 110
Chapter 7 Assessing adaptive capacity to climate change in European regions 113
SirkkuJuhola,LassePeltonenandPetteriNiemi
7.1 Introduction 113
7.2 Adaptationandadaptivecapacity 114
7.3 Assessingadaptivecapacity 116
7.4 MappingtheadaptivecapacityofEuropeanregions 119
7.5 EnhancementofadaptivecapacityinEurope 125
7.6 Conclusion 128
References 128
Chapter 8 Exploring mitigative and response capacities to climate change
in European regions 131
SirkkuJuhola,LassePeltonen,PetteriNiemiandJarmoVehmas
8.1 Introduction 131
8.2 Regionalcapacitiestomitigateclimatechange 132
8.3 RegionalGHGemissions 133
8.4 Determinantsofmitigativecapacity 134
Contents vii
8.5 Territorialpotentialsformitigationofclimatechange 138
8.6 Regionalresponsecapacitytodealwithclimatechange 140
8.7 Conclusion 145
References 145
Chapter 9 Overall impact and vulnerability to climate change in Europe 147
JohannesLu¨ckenko¨tter,ChristianLindnerandStefanGreiving
9.1 Overallpotentialimpactofclimatechange 148
9.2 Vulnerabilitytoclimatechange 159
9.3 Conclusions 166
References 169
Chapter 10 Role of case studies – methodological concept 171
StefanGreivingandPhilippSchmidt-Thom´e
10.1 Casestudies 171
References 174
Chapter 11 Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change: the case study
North Rhine–Westphalia 175
AnneHolsten,CarstenWalther,OliviaRoithmeierandJu¨rgenP.Kropp
11.1 Introduction 176
11.2 Descriptionofthestudyarea 176
11.3 Pastclimaticchangesandtheirimpactsinthestudyarea 178
11.4 Methodologyofanintegratedvulnerabilityassessment 178
11.5 Results 189
11.6 Discussion 195
11.7 Conclusion 200
Acknowledgements 200
References 200
Chapter 12 Climate change impacts on the Hungarian, Romanian and Slovak
Territories of the Tisza catchment area 205
Krisztia´nSchneller,Ga´borBa´lint,AlinaChico¸s,Ma´riaCsete,
JanDzurdzenik,Annama´riaGo¨ncz,Alexandru-IonutPetrisor,
TesliarJaroslavandTama´sPa´lvo¨lgyi
12.1 Introduction 206
12.2 BriefcharacteristicsofTiszaRiverBasin 206
12.3 ClimatechangeimpactsonTiszaRiverBasin 208
12.4 VulnerabilityassessmentoftheTiszaRivercasestudyarea 210
12.5 Existingclimatechangeadaptationstrategiesinthecasestudyarea 219
12.6 Policyrecommendationandimplications 226
References 227
viii Contents
Chapter 13 Tourism, climate change and water resources: coastal Mediterranean Spain
as an example 231
DavidSaur´ı,JorgeOlcina,Jos´eFernandoVera,JavierMart´ın-Vide,HugMarch,
AnnaSerra-LlobetandEmilioPadilla
13.1 Introduction 232
13.2 Thestudyarea:abriefpresentation 233
13.3 Methodologicaloutline 234
13.4 Vulnerabilityassessment 237
13.5 Responsestrategiesandpolicydevelopment 247
13.6 Furtheroutlookontheissue:publicperceptionoftherelationships
betweenclimatechange,waterresourcesandtourisminthe
touristzones 249
13.7 Conclusions 249
Acknowledgements 251
References 251
Chapter 14 Sensitivity analyses of the ESPON Climate framework, on the basis
of the case study on flooding in the Netherlands 253
JoostM.Knoop,ArnoBouwmanandHansVisser
14.1 Introduction 254
14.2 FloodprotectionintheNetherlands 256
14.3 Floodmodelling 258
14.4 Sensitivityanalysis 261
14.5 Discussionandconclusions 266
References 270
Chapter 15 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Alpine space: a case
study on the adaptive capacity of the tourism sector 273
SylviaKruse,ManuelaStiffler,DanielBaumgartnerandMarcoPu¨tz
15.1 Introduction 274
15.2 ClimatechangeimpactsandtheadaptationofAlpinetourism 275
15.3 Assessingadaptivecapacity:methodsandmeasures 277
15.4 Results 281
15.5 Discussionandconclusions 284
References 285
Chapter 16 Comparative analysis of the case studies 289
StefanGreiving
16.1 Comparativeanalysis 289
Reference 294