ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR IN FIRES : 'PANIC' OR AFFILIATION?

398 Pages·2017·17.74 MB·English

ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR IN FIRES : ’PANIC’ OR AFFILIATION?
Jonathan D. Sime
THESIS SUBMITTED IN FULFILMENT OF THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
Department of Psychology •
University of Surrey
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SUMMARY
Fire regulations for buildings and architectural designs aimed at
providing escape routes in case of fire,rest on unexamined assumptions
These are, briefly, that people ’panic* in fire and smoke and are
therefore best kept in ignorance until the danger has been established
that providing a variety of escape routes for use only in emergency
will avert the surge to one entrance and the fight to escape through
it.
For shorthand this is called the panic concept or scenario. Evidence
of real behaviour in fires does not support it. As will be shown, 1
people appear to behave rationally in the light of the information
they have. They also show marked preference for familiar routes and
exits and concern for the safety of their family members. This
is called the ’affiliation’ model.
Chapter 1 outlines the aims and structure of the thesis. Chapter 2
discusses the concept of panic and affiliative model. Chapter 3
reviews the existing'research on escape behaviour in fires. Chapter
If outlines the research strategy adopted: based on multivariate
statistical analyses of categorical (frequency) data derived from
interview accounts collected from fire survivors: Act sequence
transitions, Multi-variate and Partial-Order Scalogram Analyses
(■MSA-1, POSA), Causal Loglinear Analysis (CLA). The analyses
focus on Recognition of the fire threat, Role, Location, Group
membership and Location, Direction of Movement.
Chapter.5 analyses the sequence of acts of Ul individuals in llf
domestic fires. Chapter 6 analyses the pattern and distance moved
by 33 survivors of an hotel fire. Chapter 7 examines the exit
choice behaviour by 75 people in the Marquee Shovbar (MSB) (Summer-
land Fire). Chapter 8 examines the pattern of affiliative behaviour
of 128 people in the Solarium (Summerland). Chapter 9 analyses
the outcome of escape behaviour for groups and individuals in the
MSB and Solarium. In general, the affiliative model fits the
results much more closely than the panic concept. Chapter 10 out­
lines the implications of the research, in particular the weakness
in assuming people will use conventionally unfamiliar emergency
escape routes.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The research reported in this thesis began when I was Research Fellow
in the Fire Research Unit (FRU) at the University of Surrey (1975-
1981). Except for one year as a full-time PhD student 1981-1982
all of the work has been conducted on a part-time basis. I would
like-.:to thank David Canter for the opportunity to pursue the research.
Contacts with the Fire Research Station, the London and Surrey Fire
Brigades, East Sussex Fire Brigade and Police, while working in the
FRU, provided me with the opportunity to interview fire survivors
and gain access to research material. I am indebted to these organi­
sations.
I am particularly grateful to John Breaux, for his unfailing encourage­
ment and advice during the years we worked together in the FRU. I
would also like to thank Jennifer Brown and Nigel Gilbert for discussions
concerning the accounts methodology and LOGLIN computer program respec­
tively. I am also grateful to James Powell who, since 1982 when I
began work in the School of Architecture, Portsmouth Polytechnic, has...
generously encouraged me in the final stages of writing up the thesis.
Thanks are due to Lynda Dare and Barbara Newell who have had the
unenviable task of typing the thesis up.
I would like to thank Michi' Kimura, David Tong and all who have
’passed through No. 26’ for their encouragement and finally Cecy, my
Mother and family, who at different stages have had to endure me
’putting work first’.
December 1983
C O N T E N T S page
Summary i-ii
Acknowledgments m
Contents , '. iv-viii
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION : AIMS AND RATIONALE 1-16
INTRODUCTION ' 1
HISTORICAL ORIGIN AND ROLE OF RESEARCH ON
ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR IN FIRES 5
RESEARCH STRATEGY 11
AIMS OF THE RESEARCH 15
SUMMARY 16
CHAPTER 2 - THE CONCEPT OF PANIC AND AFFILIATIVE MODEL 17-39
INTRODUCTION 17
USE OF THE CONCEPT OF PANIC IN BUILDING
REGULATIONS AND DESIGN LITERATURE 18
POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES IN THE ’PANIC’ CONCEPT 23
AFFILIATIVE MODEL.OF ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR 27
STAGES OF A FIRE : FACTORS RELATING TO ESCAPE
BEHAVIOUR 33
. SUMMARY 38
CHAPTER 3 ~ REVIEW OF RESEARCH LITERATURE RELATING TO ESCAPE
BEHAVIOUR IN FIRES Uo-86
INTRODUCTION ^O
EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH ON ENTRAPMENT hi
SIMULATION RESEARCH ■ ' ^5
(a) Waiting Room Studies
(b) Research on exit signs, emergency lighting
and visibility through smoke
(c) Research on movement to or through exits
THE CARRYING CAPACITY RESEARCH 56
MODELLING OF PEOPLE’S MOVEMENTS AND ESCAPE ROUTE
DESIGNS : COMPUTER SIMULATIONS 6k
FIELD RESEARCH ON ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR IN FIRES.. 71
(a) Survey Research
(b) Case Studies
CONCLUDING DISCUSSION : IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH
ON ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR IN THIS THESIS 82
SUMMARY 85
CHAPTER 1* - RESEARCH STRATEGY : ACCOUNTS METHODOLOGY 87-103
INTRODUCTION 87
SELECTION OF INFORMANTS 95
ACCOUNT GATHERING SITUATION 97
TRANSFORMATION OF ACCOUNTS 100
SUMMARY 103
CHAPTER 5 - ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR IN DOMESTIC FIRES : AN ACT SEQUENCE
ANALYSIS : ' lOU-lig
INTRODUCTION 10U
SELECTION OF FIRES 106
SELECTION OF INFORMANTS AND ACCOUNT GATHERING • 108
TRANSFORMATION OF THE ACCOUNTS 109
RESULTS 112
1. OVERALL ACT DECOMPOSITION 112
2. BEHAVIOUR OF MALES AND FEMALES 119
(a) Act Decompositions
(b) Comparison of Act Frequencies
(c) Occupants and Neighbours
(a) Movement Index (Ml)
3. FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF ACTS AT DIFFERENT
STAGES OF THE FIRES 132
DISCUSSION 13k
SUMMARY lUO
CHAPTER 6 ~ ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR IN AN HOTEL FIRE : DISTANCE
AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENTS 1U2-167
INTRODUCTION 1^2
DESCRIPTION OF FIRE . 1k6
(a) Selection of Fire
(b) The Occupancy and Building Layout
(c) The Fire Spread
METHOD AND CODING 151
(a) Data Source
(b) Method of Measuring Movements
(i) Visual Representation
(ii) Distance Moved
' (iii) Movement Inded (Ml)
(iv.) Activity Goal of Movement
RESULTS 15^
Distance Moved
Number of Moves between Information Points (Ml)
Act Content x MI
Sequence of Initial Actions
OUTCOME l6l
(a) Numbers of people escaping via different routes
(b) Location of Fatalities
DISCUSSION 163
SUMMARY 16^
CHAPTER 7 - EXIT CHOICE BEHAVIOUR IN THE MARQUEE SHOWBAR (MSB) 168-225
INTRODUCTION 168
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT PREDICTIONS derived from
Affiliative Model 172
DESCRIPTION OF BUILDING AND FIRE 173
(a) Occupancy, Building Layout and Marquee
Showbar (MSB)
(b) The Fire Spread
METHOD AND CODING (Transformation of the Accounts) 182
(a) Data Source
(b) Definition of Variables and Categories
RESULTS 182
PARTIAL ORDER SCALOGRAM ANALYSES (POSA) AND CAUSAL
LOGLINEAR ANALYSIS (CLA) OF VARIABLES 182
(a) (A) Role by (B) Location by (C) Exit Used
(b) (A) Group Membership by (B) Group Attachment
at cue by (C) Exit Used
(c) (A) Attachment at cue by (B) Location by (C)
guidance by (E) Exit Used ! -
(d) Mapping Sentence
DISCUSSION 217
SUMMARY 223
*
CHAPTER 8 - AFFILIATIVE BEHAVIOUR IN SOLARIUM DURING ESCAPE 226-257
)
INTRODUCTION 226
PROPOSITIONS ' 227
I
DESCRIPTION OF PHYSICAL SETTING 229
(a) The Solarium
(b) The Fire Spread
METHOD AND CODING 23^
(a) Data Source
(b) Definition of Variables and Categories
(c) Order of Variables and Categories
RESULTS
(A) Group Membership by (B) Attachment at cue
by (C) Cue by (D) Affiliation at Final Exit
DISCUSSION 251
SUMMARY 256
CHAPTER 9 - OUTCOME OF ESCAPEB EHAVIOUR BYG ROUP MEMBERS FROM
THE MARQUEE SHOWBAR AND SOLARIUM 258-296
INTRODUCTION 258
GROUP COHESIVENESS DURING ESCAPE FROM THE MSB
AND SOLARIUM 258
(a) Definition of Group
(b) Definition of Variables and Categories
RESULTS 261
Group Cohesiveness
CLA OF OUTCOME OF ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR BY MSB AND
SOLARIUM GROUPS 26k
MSB (B) Group Intact at Cue by (E) Injury by
(D) Group Intact at Final Exit
POSA OF OUTCOME OF ESCAPE BEHAVIOUR : (B) x (E)
~ x (D) (MSB) 275
SUCCESSFUL AND UNSUCCESSFUL ESCAPE BY MSB AND
SOLARIUM GROUPS 281
FINAL EXITS USED BY INDIVIDUALS PRESENT IN THE
MSB. AND SOLARIUM AT CUE 28k
ESCAPE FROM BUILDING ALONE 286
DISCUSSION 291
SUMMARY 295
CHAPTER 10 - IMPLICATIONS OF THE RESEARCH 297-321
INTRODUCTION 297
RESEARCH STRATEGY : METHODOLOGY AND STATISTICS ■ 299
EVALUATION OF FINDINGS IN RELATION TO AFFILIATIVE
MODEL 303
IMPLICATIONS FOR ESCAPE ROUTE DESIGN AND FIRE
SAFETY PROCEDURES 311
FUTURE RESEARCH 317
CONCLUSION 321
APPENDICES A1-AU9
APPENDIX 1 (Appendix to Chapter k) MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF A2
CATEGORICAL DATA
2 (Appendix to Chapter 5) BACKGROUND DETAILS A28
3 (Appendix to Chapter 7) CONTENT ANALYSIS OF STATEMENTS A30
k (Appendix to Chapters 7, 8 & 9) REPRESENTATIVENESS
OF MSB AND SOLARIUM SAMPLES A38
5 (Appendix to Chapter 9) TABLES A^3
BIBLIOGRAPHY B1-B18