ERIC ED427809: Models for Understanding and Predicting the Undergraduate Educational Attainment Patterns of Public Community College Students Who Transfer with the Associate in Arts Degree into a State University System.

280 Pages·1998·2.1 MB·English

by  ERIC

DOCUMENT RESUME
ED 427 809
JC 990 110
AUTHOR
Minear, Dorothy J.
TITLE
Models for Understanding and Predicting the Undergraduate
Educational Attainment Patterns of Public Community College
Students Who Transfer with the Associate in Arts Degree into
a State University System.
PUB DATE
1998-00-00
NOTE
279p.; Doctoral Dissertation, Florida State University,
Tallahassee.
PUB TYPE
Dissertations/Theses - Doctoral Dissertations (041)
Reports - Descriptive (141)
EDRS PRICE
MF01/PC12 Plus Postage.
DESCRIPTORS
Academic Achievement; *Academic Persistence; Associate
Degrees; *Bachelors Degrees; *College Transfer Students;
*Community Colleges; Educational Trends; Enrollment Trends;
Grade Point Average; Higher Education; Public Colleges;
*Student Characteristics
ABSTRACT
This dissertation investigates academic performance,
persistence, and baccalaureate degree attainment patterns for 12,824
community college students who transferred with Associate in Arts (AA)
degrees to a state university system during the 1991-92 academic year.
Analyses focused on students' attributes, academic background, transition,
adjustment, and integration into the university. Variables with a significant
effect on at least one of the outcomes included:
(2) birth year;
(1) gender;
(3) community college grade point average;
(4) time gap between community
college and university enrollment;
(5) average university composite
Scholastic Aptitude Test score;
(7) first-term course
(6) term of entry;
(8) first-term change in grade point average;
(9) number of requested
load;
degree changes;
(10) and change of institution within the system. A
prediction model was developed that accurately classified 695k of the AA
transfers as:
(1) students who attained the baccalaureate from the system
during the specified time;
(2) students who remained enrolled in the system
at the end of the specified time;
(3) nonpersisters who left the system in
good academic standing; or (4) nonpersisters who left the system not in good
academic standing and did not return to graduate or to remain enrolled at the
end of the investigation. Information from this investigation may be used by
educators to make appropriate adjustments on campus policies and practices
and to design support systems that will enhance transfer students'
educational attainment. Contains 24 tables and more than 300 references.
(AS)
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Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made
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THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY
COLLEGE OF EDUCATION
MODELS FOR UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING
THE UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT PATTERNS
OF PUBLIC COMMUNITY COLLEGE STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER WITH
THE ASSOCIATE IN ARTS DEGREE INTO A STATE UNIVERSITY SYSTEM
By
DOROTHY J. MINEAR
A Dissertation submitted to the
Department of Educational Leadership
in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
Degree Awarded:
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
Office of Educational Research and Improvement
Fall Semester, 1998
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION
CENTER (ERIC)
PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE AND
his document has been reproduced as
DISSEMINATE THIS MATERIAL HAS
received from the person or organization
BEEN GRANTED BY
originating it.
0 Minor changes have been made to
D. Minear
improve reproduction quality.
Copyright © 1998
° Points of view or opinions stated in this
document do not necessarily represent
Dorothy J. Minear
official OERI position or policy.
TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES
All Rights Reserved
INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)
BLE
EMT COPY AVARLABIE
BEST COPY AM
I
The members of the Committee approve the dissertation of Dorothy J. Minear defended
on August 6, 1998.
Barbara A. Mann
Professor Directing Dissertation
Richard L. Tate
Outside Committee Member
Joseph C. Beckham
Committee Member
David W. Leslie
Committee Member
Approved:
Hollie B. Thomas, Chairperson, Department of Educational Leadership
3
To Norine,
who understood that it had little to do
with earning a doctorate.
Thank you.
iii
4
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
vii
AB STRACT
ix
Chapter
Page
1. INTRODUCTION
1
Statement of the Problem
1
Purpose of the Study
3
Significance of the Study
5
Organization of the Study
9
2. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
1 0
Introduction
10
Methodology for the Literature Search
1 1
The Issue of Educational Attainment
12
The Role of Public Community Colleges
in Baccalaureate Degree Attainment
15
Attrition/Retention and Academic Attainment Research
1 8
Early Atheoretical Studies
The Development of Conceptual Models
Other Methodological Considerations
Research Findings
33
Student Persistence and Baccalaureate Degree Attainment Rates
Variables Included in Educational Attainment Studies
The Academic Performance, Persistence, and Baccalaureate Degree
Attainment of Community College Transfers
Critical Analysis and Summary
73
iv
5
Chapter
Page
3. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS
78
Introduction
78
Restatement of the Purpose
78
Conceptual Framework
79
Definition of Terms
81
Research Questions
86
Assumptions, Limitations, and Other Considerations
88
4. METHODOLOGY AND COLLECTION OF DATA
92
Introduction
92
Restatement of the Purpose
92
Research Setting and Population Under Study
92
Data Source and Development of the Data File
96
Outcome Variables
Discriminating Variables (Predictors)
Research Questions and Choice of Statistical Analyses
105
Statistical Considerations for the Logistic Regression Analyses
110
Statistical Considerations for the Predictive Discriminant Analyses
116
5. MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTS
121
Introduction
121
The Subjects of the Research
121
Descriptive Statistics for Intermediate Outcomes
122
Logistic Regression Analyses for Intermediate Outcomes
130
Persistence Models
Academic Standing Models
Graduation Models
Summary of Logistic Regression Analyses
149
Descriptive Statistics for Final Outcome Groups
151
Predictive Discriminant Analysis Models for Final Outcomes
158
Calibration Model
Final Model for the Entire Sample
Use of Intermediate Logistic Regression Results to Predict
Final Educational Attainment Classifications
175
vi
Page
Chapter
6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
177
Introduction
177
Summary of Findings
177
Discussion of Findings
181
Theoretical Framework
Relationship of Results with Earlier Research
Implications for Future Research
199
207
Implications for Practitioners
219
Conclusions
223
APPENDICES
A. Approval of Human Subjects Committee
223
B. Supplemental Tables
225
REFERENCES
241
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH
265
vii
LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table
Summary of Variable Characteristics for Entire Sample
123
1.
Logistic Regression Results: Persistence Models
132
2.
Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit: Final Persistence Model
137
3.
Logistic Regression Results: Academic Standing Models
140
4.
Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit: Final Academic Standing Model
143
5.
Logistic Regression Results: Graduation Models
145
6.
Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit: Final Graduation Model
148
7.
Summary of Variable Characteristics for Entire Sample
8.
Used for Discriminant Analysis
153
Final Outcome Rates by Race, Gender, and Age
154
9.
Model for Predicting Educational Attainment Outcomes (Calibration)
163
10.
Educational Attainment Outcome Group Contrasts -- Entire Sample
166
11.
Final Model Predicting Educational Attainment Outcomes
171
12.
Classification Function Coefficients for Final Model
173
13.
Classification Results for Final Model (Equal Prior Probabilities)
173
14.
Correlation Matrix for Entire Sample
226
15.
Table
Page
viii
8
Summary of Variable Characteristics for Calibration Sample
227
16.
Summary of Variable Characteristics for Cross Validation Sample
228
17.
Summary of Variable Means by Group (With Standard Deviations)
229
18.
Logistic Regression Results: Full Models for Calibration Sample
230
19.
Logistic Regression Results: Reduced Models for Calibration Sample
232
20.
Logistic Regression Results: Reduced Models for Entire Sample
234
21.
Summary for Cases Not Fit Well by Final Logistic Regression Models
236
22.
Summary of Variable Characteristics for Calibration Sample
23.
Used for Discriminant Analysis
237
Educational Attainment Outcome Group Contrasts for Calibration
238
24.
ix
8
ABSTRACT
This investigation provides a better understanding of academic performance,
persistence, and baccalaureate degree attainment patterns for 12,824 community college
students who transferred with Associate in Arts (AA) degrees into a state university
system during the 1991-92 academic year. Students were tracked until June 30, 1995.
Effects were analyzed for variables operationally defined to represent students' attributes,
academic backgrounds, transition, adjustment, and integration into the university and for
which system-level data were available. A reduced set of variables was identified that,
when considered simultaneously through logistic regression analyses, provided predictive
information regarding AA transfer academic performance, persistence, and baccalaureate
degree attainment within the specified time. Variables found to have a significant effect
(p < .05) on at least one of the outcomes included gender, birth year, community college
grade point average, time gap between community college and university enrollment,
average university composite Scholastic Aptitude Test score, term of entry, first-term
course load, first-term change in grade point average, number of requested degree
changes, and change of institution within the system.
A prediction model was developed using discriminant analysis that accurately
estimated whether AA transfers were (a) students who attained the baccalaureate from the