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ERIC ED427809: Models for Understanding and Predicting the Undergraduate Educational Attainment Patterns of Public Community College Students Who Transfer with the Associate in Arts Degree into a State University System. PDF

280 Pages·1998·2.1 MB·English
by  ERIC
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Preview ERIC ED427809: Models for Understanding and Predicting the Undergraduate Educational Attainment Patterns of Public Community College Students Who Transfer with the Associate in Arts Degree into a State University System.

DOCUMENT RESUME ED 427 809 JC 990 110 AUTHOR Minear, Dorothy J. TITLE Models for Understanding and Predicting the Undergraduate Educational Attainment Patterns of Public Community College Students Who Transfer with the Associate in Arts Degree into a State University System. PUB DATE 1998-00-00 NOTE 279p.; Doctoral Dissertation, Florida State University, Tallahassee. PUB TYPE Dissertations/Theses - Doctoral Dissertations (041) Reports - Descriptive (141) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC12 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Academic Achievement; *Academic Persistence; Associate Degrees; *Bachelors Degrees; *College Transfer Students; *Community Colleges; Educational Trends; Enrollment Trends; Grade Point Average; Higher Education; Public Colleges; *Student Characteristics ABSTRACT This dissertation investigates academic performance, persistence, and baccalaureate degree attainment patterns for 12,824 community college students who transferred with Associate in Arts (AA) degrees to a state university system during the 1991-92 academic year. Analyses focused on students' attributes, academic background, transition, adjustment, and integration into the university. Variables with a significant effect on at least one of the outcomes included: (2) birth year; (1) gender; (3) community college grade point average; (4) time gap between community college and university enrollment; (5) average university composite Scholastic Aptitude Test score; (7) first-term course (6) term of entry; (8) first-term change in grade point average; (9) number of requested load; degree changes; (10) and change of institution within the system. A prediction model was developed that accurately classified 695k of the AA transfers as: (1) students who attained the baccalaureate from the system during the specified time; (2) students who remained enrolled in the system at the end of the specified time; (3) nonpersisters who left the system in good academic standing; or (4) nonpersisters who left the system not in good academic standing and did not return to graduate or to remain enrolled at the end of the investigation. Information from this investigation may be used by educators to make appropriate adjustments on campus policies and practices and to design support systems that will enhance transfer students' educational attainment. Contains 24 tables and more than 300 references. (AS) ******************************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. ******************************************************************************** THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF EDUCATION MODELS FOR UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THE UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT PATTERNS OF PUBLIC COMMUNITY COLLEGE STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER WITH THE ASSOCIATE IN ARTS DEGREE INTO A STATE UNIVERSITY SYSTEM By DOROTHY J. MINEAR A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Educational Leadership in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree Awarded: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Office of Educational Research and Improvement Fall Semester, 1998 EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE AND his document has been reproduced as DISSEMINATE THIS MATERIAL HAS received from the person or organization BEEN GRANTED BY originating it. 0 Minor changes have been made to D. Minear improve reproduction quality. Copyright © 1998 ° Points of view or opinions stated in this document do not necessarily represent Dorothy J. Minear official OERI position or policy. TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES All Rights Reserved INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) BLE EMT COPY AVARLABIE BEST COPY AM I The members of the Committee approve the dissertation of Dorothy J. Minear defended on August 6, 1998. Barbara A. Mann Professor Directing Dissertation Richard L. Tate Outside Committee Member Joseph C. Beckham Committee Member David W. Leslie Committee Member Approved: Hollie B. Thomas, Chairperson, Department of Educational Leadership 3 To Norine, who understood that it had little to do with earning a doctorate. Thank you. iii 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES vii AB STRACT ix Chapter Page 1. INTRODUCTION 1 Statement of the Problem 1 Purpose of the Study 3 Significance of the Study 5 Organization of the Study 9 2. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE 1 0 Introduction 10 Methodology for the Literature Search 1 1 The Issue of Educational Attainment 12 The Role of Public Community Colleges in Baccalaureate Degree Attainment 15 Attrition/Retention and Academic Attainment Research 1 8 Early Atheoretical Studies The Development of Conceptual Models Other Methodological Considerations Research Findings 33 Student Persistence and Baccalaureate Degree Attainment Rates Variables Included in Educational Attainment Studies The Academic Performance, Persistence, and Baccalaureate Degree Attainment of Community College Transfers Critical Analysis and Summary 73 iv 5 Chapter Page 3. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS 78 Introduction 78 Restatement of the Purpose 78 Conceptual Framework 79 Definition of Terms 81 Research Questions 86 Assumptions, Limitations, and Other Considerations 88 4. METHODOLOGY AND COLLECTION OF DATA 92 Introduction 92 Restatement of the Purpose 92 Research Setting and Population Under Study 92 Data Source and Development of the Data File 96 Outcome Variables Discriminating Variables (Predictors) Research Questions and Choice of Statistical Analyses 105 Statistical Considerations for the Logistic Regression Analyses 110 Statistical Considerations for the Predictive Discriminant Analyses 116 5. MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTS 121 Introduction 121 The Subjects of the Research 121 Descriptive Statistics for Intermediate Outcomes 122 Logistic Regression Analyses for Intermediate Outcomes 130 Persistence Models Academic Standing Models Graduation Models Summary of Logistic Regression Analyses 149 Descriptive Statistics for Final Outcome Groups 151 Predictive Discriminant Analysis Models for Final Outcomes 158 Calibration Model Final Model for the Entire Sample Use of Intermediate Logistic Regression Results to Predict Final Educational Attainment Classifications 175 vi Page Chapter 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 177 Introduction 177 Summary of Findings 177 Discussion of Findings 181 Theoretical Framework Relationship of Results with Earlier Research Implications for Future Research 199 207 Implications for Practitioners 219 Conclusions 223 APPENDICES A. Approval of Human Subjects Committee 223 B. Supplemental Tables 225 REFERENCES 241 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH 265 vii LIST OF TABLES Page Table Summary of Variable Characteristics for Entire Sample 123 1. Logistic Regression Results: Persistence Models 132 2. Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit: Final Persistence Model 137 3. Logistic Regression Results: Academic Standing Models 140 4. Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit: Final Academic Standing Model 143 5. Logistic Regression Results: Graduation Models 145 6. Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit: Final Graduation Model 148 7. Summary of Variable Characteristics for Entire Sample 8. Used for Discriminant Analysis 153 Final Outcome Rates by Race, Gender, and Age 154 9. Model for Predicting Educational Attainment Outcomes (Calibration) 163 10. Educational Attainment Outcome Group Contrasts -- Entire Sample 166 11. Final Model Predicting Educational Attainment Outcomes 171 12. Classification Function Coefficients for Final Model 173 13. Classification Results for Final Model (Equal Prior Probabilities) 173 14. Correlation Matrix for Entire Sample 226 15. Table Page viii 8 Summary of Variable Characteristics for Calibration Sample 227 16. Summary of Variable Characteristics for Cross Validation Sample 228 17. Summary of Variable Means by Group (With Standard Deviations) 229 18. Logistic Regression Results: Full Models for Calibration Sample 230 19. Logistic Regression Results: Reduced Models for Calibration Sample 232 20. Logistic Regression Results: Reduced Models for Entire Sample 234 21. Summary for Cases Not Fit Well by Final Logistic Regression Models 236 22. Summary of Variable Characteristics for Calibration Sample 23. Used for Discriminant Analysis 237 Educational Attainment Outcome Group Contrasts for Calibration 238 24. ix 8 ABSTRACT This investigation provides a better understanding of academic performance, persistence, and baccalaureate degree attainment patterns for 12,824 community college students who transferred with Associate in Arts (AA) degrees into a state university system during the 1991-92 academic year. Students were tracked until June 30, 1995. Effects were analyzed for variables operationally defined to represent students' attributes, academic backgrounds, transition, adjustment, and integration into the university and for which system-level data were available. A reduced set of variables was identified that, when considered simultaneously through logistic regression analyses, provided predictive information regarding AA transfer academic performance, persistence, and baccalaureate degree attainment within the specified time. Variables found to have a significant effect (p < .05) on at least one of the outcomes included gender, birth year, community college grade point average, time gap between community college and university enrollment, average university composite Scholastic Aptitude Test score, term of entry, first-term course load, first-term change in grade point average, number of requested degree changes, and change of institution within the system. A prediction model was developed using discriminant analysis that accurately estimated whether AA transfers were (a) students who attained the baccalaureate from the

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