Envisioning the 2020 Census

363 Pages·2010·8.27 MB·English

by  National Research Council, Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census Program of Evaluations

ENVISIONING THE
2020
CENSUS
Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census
Program of Evaluations and Experiments
Lawrence D. Brown, Michael L. Cohen,
Daniel L. Cork, and Constance F. Citro, Editors
Committee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
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06-CN-0031 between the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Academy of Sciences.
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Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2010). Envisioning the 2020 Cen-
sus. Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census Program of Evaluations and Exper-
iments. Lawrence D. Brown, Michael L. Cohen, Daniel L. Cork, and Constance
F. Citro, eds. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social
Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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PANEL ON THE DESIGN OF THE 2010 CENSUS PROGRAM OF
EVALUATIONS AND EXPERIMENTS
LAWRENCE D. BROWN (Chair), Department of Statistics, Wharton School
of Business, University of Pennsylvania
RICHARD A. BERK, Department of Criminology, University of
Pennsylvania
ERIC T. BRADLOW, Wharton School of Business, University of
Pennsylvania
IVAN P. FELLEGI, Statistics Canada (retired), Ottawa
LINDA GAGE, California Department of Finance, Sacramento
VIJAY NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan
JESSE H. POORE, JR., Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer
Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of
Wisconsin–Madison
ALLEN L. SCHIRM, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC
JUDITH A. SELTZER, Department of Sociology, University of California,
Los Angeles
STANLEY K. SMITH, Department of Economics, University of Florida,
Gainesville
JOHN H. THOMPSON, National Opinion Research Center, University of
Chicago
ROGER TOURANGEAU, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of
Maryland, College Park
KIRK WOLTER, National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Co-Study Director
DANIEL L. CORK, Co-Study Director
AGNES E. GASKIN, Administrative Assistant
MEYER ZITTER, Consultant
v
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
2008–2009
WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair), Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon
University
KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM, Department of Economics and Joint Program
in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland
ALICIA CARRIQUIRY, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
WILLIAM DUMOUCHEL, Phase Forward, Inc., Waltham, Massachusetts
JOHN C. HALTIWANGER, Department of Economics, University of
Maryland
V. JOSEPH HOTZ, Department of Economics, Duke University
KAREN KAFADAR, Department of Statistics, Indiana University,
Bloomington
DOUGLAS S. MASSEY, Department of Sociology, Princeton University
SALLY MORTON, Statistics and Epidemiology, RTI International, Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina
JOSEPH NEWHOUSE, Division of Health Policy Research and Education,
Harvard University
SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of
Pennsylvania
HAL STERN, Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine
ROGER TOURANGEAU, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University
of Maryland, and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan
ALAN ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical
School
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director
vi
Acknowledgments
The Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census Program of Evaluations and
Experiments (CPEX) wishes to thank the many people who have contributed
to our work. The panel is indebted to former Deputy Director Preston Jay
Waite’s support during the developmental stage of the study and to the con-
tinued support from Daniel Weinberg, assistant director for decennial cen-
sus and American Community Survey. Deborah Bolton and Randall Neuge-
bauer ably served as principal liaisons between the Census Bureau and the
panel, assisted by Gary Chappell, Joyce Price, Jennifer Reichert, and Donna
Souders. All of these Census Bureau staff were responsive to requests from
the panel for help in the development of agendas, the collection of support-
ing materials, and assistance with other logistical details. They have been a
pleasure to work with.
Also, a number of Census Bureau personnel provided extremely useful
presentations and supporting materials during the panel’s meetings in April
2007, July 2007, April 2008, July 2008, November 2008, and February
2009. In this regard, we would like to thank Teresa Angueira, Michael
Bentley, Larry Cahoon, Joan Hill, Elizabeth Martin, Mary Mulry, Manuel
de la Puente, Jennifer Reichert, Courtney Reiser, Annetta Clark Smith, and
Frank Vitrano. Many of these individuals, along with others, also con-
tributed to three very productive small group meetings of the panel (held
in July 2007), and here we would like to mention interactions with Nancy
Bates, William Bell, Sharon Boyer, Mary Destasio, Donna Kostanich, Laurel
Schwede, Jennifer Tancreto, and Jim Treat. We would like to single out Jim
Treat to thank him for his help in learning about a number of disparate areas
of census planning, experimentation, and evaluation.
Our panel also benefited from the contributions of a number of out-
side speakers at our plenary meetings who gave generously of their talents.
We thank Mick Couper, University of Michigan, and John Czajka, Mathe-
vii
viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
matica Policy Research, Inc., for their thoughtful presentations on Internet
data collection and administrative records, respectively. Rosemary Bender of
Statistics Canada provided useful insight on census research in Canada, con-
tributing to a discussion organized by panel member Ivan Fellegi. Finally,
Marios Hadjieleftheriou of AT&T spoke about the possible structure of a
master trace system and the use of such systems in industry.
We would like to thank Constance Citro, along with Jay Waite, for de-
veloping the study. In addition, Connie participated actively in our panel
meetings and helped with writing and editing this report, providing her usual
insightful comments and suggestions. Her knowledge and experience of cen-
sus history and procedures proved to be an essential and invaluable addition
to our deliberations. We would also like to thank Meyer Zitter, consultant
to the panel, for also providing important, experienced perspectives on the
census and in particular for his advice on the potential use of administrative
records in census taking. We express our gratitude to Agnes Gaskin, who
has seen to it that the meetings of the panel run as smoothly as possible,
facilitating the travel and other needs of the panel members, and formatting
this report. The panel is also indebted to Christine McShane, who provided
expert technical editing of the draft report.
Michael Cohen and Daniel Cork served as extraordinarily effective and
essential co-directors for the work of the panel. They admirably fulfilled
their responsibility for compiling, organizing and presenting most of the
background material and basic research appearing in the report, and for
skillfully organizing and drafting the report so as to integrate the panel’s
opinions and concerns along with our individual contributions. They were
responsible from the side of the panel in arranging our cooperative inter-
actions with the Census Bureau, which have been essential in our delibera-
tions. And their experience and common sense helped keep us on track and
focused as a panel during meetings and during the process of writing our
interim and final reports.
Finally, it has been a pleasure interacting with a very talented, energetic,
and collaborative panel as we considered plans for evaluation of the 2010
census and for research and development to be carried out in the next decade
to achieve as cost effective as possible a census in 2020.
This final report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen
for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with
procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National
Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide
candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the
published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets
institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the
study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confi-
dential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix
following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Betsy Ancker-Johnson, vice president (retired), General Motors Corpora-
tion; John L. Czajka, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC;
Shoreh Elhami, GIS director, Delaware County Auditor’s Office, Delaware,
OH; Benjamin King, statistical consultant, Durham, NC; Daniel B. Levine,
Statistics, Westat, Inc., Rockville, MD; Betsy Martin, consultant, Alexan-
dria, VA; C. Matthew Snipp, Department of Sociology, Stanford University;
and Alan M. Zaslavsky, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical
School.
In addition, we thank the following individuals who served as review-
ers for Experimentation and Evaluation Plans for the 2010 Census: Interim
Report, which is reprinted in Part II of this volume: C.A. (Al) Irvine, con-
sultant, San Diego, CA; Benjamin King, statistical consultant, Durham, NC;
J. Michael Oakes, Division of Epidemiology, University of Minnesota, Min-
neapolis; Joseph Salvo, Population Division, New York City Department
of City Planning, New York City, NY; Robert Scardamalia, Center for Re-
search and Information Analysis, Department of Economic Development,
Albany, NY; Frederick J. Scheuren, consultant, Alexandria, VA; and Judith
M. Tanur, Department of Sociology and Behavior, State University of New
York, Stony Brook. Finally, we thank the reviewers of the panel’s February
2009 letter report, which is reprinted as Part III of this volume: Barbara
A. Bailar, independent consultant, Washington, DC; John L. Czajka, Math-
ematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC; C.A. (Al) Irvine, consultant,
San Diego, CA; Benjamin King, statistical consultant, Durham, NC; and
Colm A. O’Muircheartaigh, Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Stud-
ies, The University of Chicago.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive com-
ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or
recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its
release. The review of this report was overseen by Samuel H. Preston, Pop-
ulation Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, and William F. Eddy, De-
partment of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University. Appointed by the Na-
tional Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an
independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with
institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully con-
sidered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with
the authoring committee and the institution.
Lawrence D. Brown, Chair
Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census
Program of Evaluations and Experiments