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EnginEEring StratEgiES for grEEnhouSE gaS Mitigation Controlling the level of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is a rapidly growing area of commercial activity. it is predicted by Lord Stern in The Economics of Climate Change that business generated by climate change issues will rise in value to uS$500 billion per year by 2050. While debate continues both about the impact of greenhouse gas on climate and the role humans play in influencing its concentration, engineers are faced with less controversial questions of how to manage this uncertainty and how to control greenhouse gases at a minimum cost to society. this book gives a concise review of current knowledge required for engineers to develop strategies to help us manage and adapt to climate change. it has been developed from the author’s graduate course in environmental engineering at the university of Sydney and Sun Yat Sen university, China. the book is written without technical jargon so as to be accessible to a wide range of students and policymakers who do not necessarily have scientific or engineering backgrounds. appendices allow readers to calculate for themselves the impact of the various engineering strategies on greenhouse gas mitigation. the book contains student exercises and references for further reading. professor ian s. f. jones is Director of the ocean technology group at the university of Sydney, australia. he is also a director of Earth, ocean and Space, a Sydney based environmental consultancy. he has been a visiting professor at tokyo, Copenhagen, Concepción, Sun Yat Sen and Columbia universities. Dr Jones holds a number of patents on greenhouse gas abatement and has lectured at many international meetings. he is the co-author of 3 books and 90 research papers, and sits on a number of journal editorial boards. he was elected a fellow of the institution of Engineers, australia, and is a Councillor of the Engineering Committee for oceanic resources. EnginEEring StratEgiES for grEEnhouSE gaS Mitigation ian S. f. JonES University of Sydney cambridge university press Cambridge, new York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, tokyo, Mexico City Cambridge university Press the Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8ru, uK Published in the united States of america by Cambridge university Press, new York www.cambridge.org information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521516020 © ian S. f. Jones 2011 this publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge university Press. first published 2011 Printed in the united Kingdom at the university Press, Cambridge A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data Jones, ian (ian S. f.) Engineering strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation/ian S. f. Jones. p. cm. includes bibliographical references and index. iSBn 978-0-521-51602-0 (hardback) 1. greenhouse gas mitigation. i. title. tD885.5.g73J66 2011 628.593–dc22 2011005951 iSBn 978-0-521-51602-0 hardback iSBn 978-0-521-73159-1 Paperback Cambridge university Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Contents Preface page ix Acknowledgments xii 1 the future greenhouse gas production 1 introduction 1 the natural carbon cycle 3 What is greenhouse gas? 4 What is climate change? 6 Sources of carbon dioxide 7 Estimating carbon dioxide release to the atmosphere 8 Scenarios of the future 9 Predictions of emissions 10 Business as usual models 11 Predictions of concentration 16 Changes in radiative forcing 19 Managing in the face of uncertainty 20 Carbon dioxide emission goals 22 further reading and exercises 23 2 Changing energy efficiency 25 Changing carbon dioxide intensity 25 Sectorial distribution of greenhouse gas emissions 28 heat loss from buildings 31 Efficiency of energy transformation 32 Efficiency of transport of energy 34 Case study: retrofitting power stations 34 Case study: building heating and air conditioning 37 Case study: lighting 39 v vi Contents Co intensity as a function of gDP 39 2 further reading and exercises 41 3 Zero-emission technologies 42 nuclear power 43 Electric and hydrogen cars 44 renewable energy 45 Wind power 47 Solar power 48 geothermal power 49 hydropower 51 tidal power 51 Wave power 52 Costing of alternative energy 52 Energy storage 54 Carbon capture and storage 54 oxygen economy 55 Energy from biomass 57 Lifecycle accounting 57 Exercises 58 4 geoengineering the climate 59 What is geoengineering? 59 Climate geoengineering techniques 61 Solar radiation 62 albedo changes 64 aerosol changes 64 reflectivity of the earth’s surface 67 radiative forcing and surface temperature 68 Modifying the atmospheric water vapour 69 Summary of geoengineering opportunities 70 Exercises 71 5 ocean sequestration 72 ocean atmosphere exchange 72 ocean circulation 74 Co partial pressure in the ocean 75 2 increased ocean sinks 76 Changing the ocean primary production 88 ocean nourishment: induced upwelling 91 iron fertilisation to utilise macronutrients 92 Contents vii ocean nourishment: cyanobacteria 95 ocean nourishment: macronutrients 95 Macronutrient delivery to the ocean and its cost 96 remote sensing of carbon uptake 100 Benefits and risks 101 Comparison of ocean sequestration techniques 103 Maintaining the thermohaline circulation 104 Exercises 104 6 increasing land sinks 106 terrestrial primary production 107 growing trees 108 Estimating carbon in forests 111 Costs of permanent forest sequestration 111 role of forests in mitigation 113 agricultural practices 115 Storing as carbonate 117 Enhanced oil recovery 118 Carbon dioxide capture 119 geological sequestration 120 overview of carbon storage 121 Exercise 123 7 adaptation 124 introduction 124 rapid climate change 125 abrupt climate change 128 Ethical issues 129 adaptation and food security 130 intergenerational equity 131 Case study: Bangladesh 132 Enhancing adaptive capacity 133 Costs of adaptation 134 adaptation and equity 136 risk assessment 137 Consequences in africa and asia of adapting to climate change 138 Marine protein 139 Exercise 140 8 the past and the future 141 the past 141 viii Contents Policies for allocating emission rights 142 Clean Development Mechanism 143 the future 144 Exercise 145 Appendices 146 1 Economic costs of CO management 146 2 2 Present net value and discount rate 149 3 The Kyoto Protocol 150 4 Emission by Annex B countries 152 5 Table of units 154 6 Inflation table 156 Further reading 157 References 159 Index 168 Colour plate section between pp. 84 and 85. Preface Controlling the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a rapidly growing new commercial activity that did not exist a decade ago. it is predicted by Stern (2007) to rise in value to uS$500 000 000 000 per year by 2050. this new activity is founded on the recognition that the threat of rapid climate change is a concern for future generations. Engineers are needed to exercise their skills to deliver economic solutions to this pressing problem. greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide trap heat in the atmosphere and their increasing levels threaten to bring about climate change. this is a global issue and its consequences are long term. at the same time, there is much uncertainty associated with a phenomenon that is not yet understood well enough to be reliably modelled. Last century there was much political discussion on this topic, which culmi- nated in the agreed text of the un framework Convention on Climate Change (unfCCC). With the unfCCC entering into force in 1994, the control of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere became an engineering problem. While debate continues both about the impact of greenhouse gas on climate and the role humans play in influencing its concentration, the engineer is faced with the less controversial questions of how to manage the uncertainty and how to control greenhouse gases at the least cost to society. the modern engineer must address the concerns of the populace and will need to engage with the economist and the social scientist. Climate change raises ethical issues of intergenerational equity and the responsibility of one region for actions that damage another region. the moral issues are sharper if a damaged region is already disadvantaged. Management of global climate is an exciting new field for engineers that was considered impos- sible until recent times. the root causes of the climate problem are the rising world population and the demands for an improved standard of living. there are difficulties in expanding economical food production fast enough to cope with the demand of an increasing world population. Energy is needed to grow food, and in the developed world ix x Preface this energy is increasingly supplied by fossil fuel. rising gross domestic product per person is underpinned by energy consumption. as the population and living standards of developing regions rise, the consumption of fossil fuel is expected to soar. the waste product of burning fossil fuel, carbon dioxide, which is pres- ently dumped in the atmosphere, is changing the climate and threatens to unsettle food production. at the same time more forests are cleared for agriculture and lumber, releasing still more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. agriculture also contributes greenhouse gases in the form of methane emissions from domesticated animals and nitrous oxide from fertiliser use. Population, climate change and food security are all connected in a way that will be addressed in the following pages. Many fear a rapid change in climate. the international agreement signed at Kyoto in 1997 was the first step in limiting emissions of greenhouse gases. the Kyoto Protocol (see appendix 3) is seen as more than just an agreement on managing climate change. Some see it as a move against the self-interest inherent in global capitalism. With climate change there will come a redistribution of wealth between regions, brought about both by the changes in agricultural productivity and by the demand on resources caused by mitigation efforts. regrettably there is a reluctance to invest in addressing the future problem of further climate change. the Kyoto Protocol is different from earlier agreements such as the Patent Cooperation treaty. Patents confer economic rights on one group, possibly to the disadvantage of another group of people. the patents on drugs to treat the aiDS pandemic dic- tate costs which may exclude impoverished sufferers from gaining treatment, to the disadvantage of all humankind. the Kyoto Protocol, in contrast, asks countries to forego economic benefits, to the advantage of all humankind. Debate has continued as to whether the changes in climate, exemplified by the warming of the earth over the last few decades, are due to ‘natural’ or anthropogenic causes. the consequences of burning fossil fuel open up a whole new field of social justice, as the issues of who will benefit and who will pay are sorted out. if we are looking for someone to blame and make financially liable for the disadvantages of change, the distinction between natural or artificial is import- ant. ‘natural changes’ can be considered to be no one’s fault! as we are speaking of managing ‘global commons’, the usual national structures that provide some measure of social justice within a country do not apply in this international situ- ation. new concepts will be needed. anthropogenic climate change raises issues of environmental ethics. By care- lessly disposing of waste today, we leave a problem for future generations. the long-term consequences invite discussion of intergenerational equity. there is the problem of predicting the future; of recognising when to take action in a gradually transforming climate; of providing insurance for dramatic change such as melting of the ice caps, the rerouting of ocean currents or the warming of methane hydrate