Engineering Probabilistic Design and Maintenance for Flood Protection

213 Pages·1997·3.903 MB·English

by  Max Mendel (auth.), Roger Cooke, Max Mendel, Han Vrijling (eds.)

ENGINEERING
PROBABILISTIC DESIGN
AND MAINTENANCE
FOR FLOOD
PROTECTION
ENGINEERING
PROBABILISTIC DESIGN
AND MAINTENANCE
FOR FLOOD
PROTECTION
EDITED BY
ROBer COOKE
Delft University of Technology
Delft, The Netherlands
Max MENDEL
University of California
Berkeley, California. USA
and
Han VRIJLlNG
Delft University of Technology
Delft, The Netherlands
KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS
DORDRECHT / BOSTON / LONDON
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress
ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-3399-9 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-3397-5
DOl: 10.1007/978-1-4613-3397-5
Published by Kluwer Academic Publishers,
P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Kluwer Academic Publishers incorporates
the publishing programmes of
D. Reidel, Martinus Nijhoff, Dr W. Junk and MTP Press.
Sold and distributed in the U.S.A. and Canada
by Kluwer Academic Publishers,
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In all other countries, sold and distributed
by Kluwer Academic Publishers Group,
P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1997
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
CONTENTS
PREFACE
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1 THE CASE FOR ENGINEERING
PROBABILITY
Max Mendel 1
1 Introduction 1
2 Second-order system 3
3 Conclusions 20
Part I 23
2 OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE DECISIONS
FOR THE SEA-BED PROTECTION OF THE
EASTERN-SCHELDT BARRIER
Jan van Noortwijk, Matthijs Kok, and Roger Cooke 25
1 Introduction 26
2 The Eastern-ScheIdt barrier 27
3 Maintenance of the block mats 30
4 Maintenance of the rock dumping 42
5 Conclusions 45
6 Acknowledgements 47
7 Appendix: Definitions and theorems 47
8 Appendix: The expected maintenance costs 51
v
VI
3 REVIEW PROBLEM OWNER
PERSPECTIVE
Leo Klatter 57
1 Introduction 57
2 Profile problem owner 57
3 General comments on the model 58
4 Maintenance of the block mats 58
5 Maintenance of the rock dumping 59
6 Conclusions 59
4 REVIEW ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE
John Shortie 61
1 Scour hole initiation 61
2 Scour erosion 62
5 GAMMA PROCESSES AND THEIR
GENERALIZATIONS: AN OVERVIEW
Nozer Singpurwalla 67
1 Introduction 67
2 The Gamma Process 70
3 The Generalized Gamma Process 71
4 The Levy Decomposition of Gamma Processes 72
5 Representation of a Gamma Process 73
6 GAMMA PROCESSES
Hans van der Weide 77
1 Introduction 77
2 Construction of Gamma Processes 79
3 The Extended Gamma Process 81
4 Some Properties 82
7 REPLY TO THE REVIEWS
Jan van Noortwijk, Matthijs Kok, and Roger Cooke 85
Contents Vll
Part II 87
8 A PHYSICS-BASED APPROACH TO
PREDICTING THE FREQUENCY OF
EXTREME RIVER LEVELS
Steve Chick, John Shortie, Pieter van Gelder, and Max Mendel 89
1 Introduction 89
2 Physical model for river system 91
3 Flood frequency calculations 95
4 Sample calculation 96
5 General solution techniques 100
6 Discussion 102
7 Summary of Notation 103
8 Appendix 103
9 REVIEW PROBLEM OWNER AND
ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE
Richard Jorissen, and Matthijs Kok 109
1 Introduction 109
2 Flood protection in The Netherlands 110
3 Design of flood defences and extreme water level statistics 118
4 Discussion of the proposed approach by S. Chick 125
5 Conclusions and recommendations 129
10 REVIEW MATHEMATICAL PERSPECTIVE
Jolanta Misiewicz 133
11 REPLY TO THE REVIEWS
Steve Chick, John Shortie, Pieter van Gelder, and Max Mendel 135
1 Summary response to criticisms 135
2 Comments on hydrologic/hydraulic models 137
Vlll
Part III 139
12 LARGE MEAN OUT CROSSING OF
NONLINEAR RESPONSE TO STOCHASTIC
INPUT
Chun-Ching Li, and Armen Der Kiureghian 141
1 Introduction 141
2 FORM Approximation 143
3 Discrete Model for Stochastic Excitation 147
4 Gradient of Nonlinear Response 148
5 Examples 150
6 Conclusion 158
7 Acknowledgement 158
13 REVIEW PROBLEM OWNER
PERSPECTIVE
Arie Kraak 161
14 REVIEW ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE
Ton Vrouwenvelder 163
15 REVIEW MATHEMATICAL PERSPECTIVE
Arne Huseby 167
1 Introduction 167
2 Risk Measures 168
3 A Counting Process Approach 169
4 FORM Approximation 170
5 Final Remarks 172
16 REPLY TO THE REVIEWS
Armen Der Kiureghian, and Chun-Ching Li 173
1 Introduction 173
2 Discussion of Reviewers' Comments 173
3 Huseby's Problems 176
Contents IX
Part IV 179
17 PROBABILISTIC DESIGN OF BERM
BREAKWATERS
Han Vrijling, and Pieier van Gelder 181
1 Introduction 181
2 The dynamically stable armour layer 182
3 Longshore transport of the armour layer 183
4 The wave climate 184
5 Three probabilistic approaches 185
6 Failure behaviour during lifetime 190
7 A maintenance model 192
8 Conclusions 195
9 Summary of notation 197
18 REVIEW PROBLEM OWNER
PERSPECTIVE
Rommert Dekker 199
19 REVIEW ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE
Ad van der Toorn 201
20 REVIEW MATHEMATICAL PERSPECTIVE
Tom Mazzuchi 203
21 REPLY TO THE REVIEWS
Pieier van Gelder, and Han Vrijling 209
PREFACE
The First Conference on Engineering Probability in Flood Defense was orga
nized by the Department of Mathematics and Informatics of the Delft U niver
sity of Technology and the Department of Industrial Engineering and Opera
tions Research of the University of California at Berkeley, and was held on June
1,2 1995 in Delft. Groups at Berkeley and Delft were both deeply engaged in
modeling deterioration in civil structures, particularly flood defense structures.
The plans for the conference were well under way when the dramatic floods
in The Netherlands and California in the winter of 1994-1995 focused world
attention on these problems.
The design of civil engineering structures and systems is essentially an example
of decision making under uncertainty. Although the decision making part of
the process is generally acknowledged, the uncertainty in variables and param
eters in the design problem is less frequently recognized. In many practical
design procedures the uncertainty is concealed behind sharp probabilistic de
sign targets like 'once in a thousand years' combined with a standardized use
of safety factors. The choice of these probabilistic design targets, however, is
based on an assessment of the uncertainty of the variable under consideration,
and on its assessed importance. The value of the safety factor is governed by
similar considerations. Standard practice is simply accu~ulated experience and
engineering judgment.
In light of the great number of civil engineering structures that function suc-.
cessfully, one may say that this standard practice has proven itself broadly
satisfactory.
In probabilistic design the relation between the uncertainty of variables, the
required safety level and the values of the safety coefficients is studied with
explicit mathematical relations. While this is not necessary for the great bulk
of civil engineering design problems, it is necessary for large unique projects
involving considerable capital investment and large potential risk. For such
problems there simply is no pre-existing body of experience and judgment.
As these probabilistic design techniques become more streamlined and more
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