Engineering for Extremes: Decision-Making in an Uncertain World

448 Pages·2022·13.357 MB·English

by  Mark G. Stewart, David V. Rosowsky

Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering
Mark G. Stewart
David V. Rosowsky   Editors
Engineering
for Extremes
Decision-Making in an Uncertain World
Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering
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Sheng-HongChen,SchoolofWaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineering,
WuhanUniversity,Wuhan,China
MarcodiPrisco,PolitecnicodiMilano,Milano,Italy
IoannisVayas,InstituteofSteelStructures,NationalTechnicalUniversityof
Athens,Athens,Greece
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·
Mark G. Stewart David V. Rosowsky
Editors
Engineering for Extremes
Decision-Making in an Uncertain World
Editors
MarkG.Stewart DavidV.Rosowsky
CentreforInfrastructurePerformance KansasStateUniversity
andReliability Manhattan,KS,USA
TheUniversityofNewcastle
Newcastle,NSW,Australia
ISSN2366-259X ISSN2366-2603 (electronic)
SpringerTractsinCivilEngineering
ISBN978-3-030-85017-3 ISBN978-3-030-85018-0 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85018-0
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Preface
The community has always been worried byextreme weather events and forgood
reason. In the era before insurance, the personal and financial loss from a flood,
storm,fire,hurricane,orearthquakecouldwrecklivelihoods,destroyhomes,shops
and workplaces, and lead to widespread poverty and destitution that might take
generationstorecoverfrom.Whilethesedevastatingconsequencesareoftenavoided
inthedevelopedworld,theyremainasadrealityformuchoftheworld.
Itisthereforeofnosurprisethatthecivilengineeringprofessionhasitsrootsin
improvingtheresilienceofthecommunitytoextremeevents.Thedesiretobuilda
floodproofrivercrossingledtotherevolutionarycast-ironIronBridgebeingbuilt
in Coalbrookdale in England in 1779 for what in its day was an impressive 30 m
span.Withinacentury,civilengineeringhadadvancedtothepointwherespansof
500 m or longer were possible—the Brooklyn Bridge linking the communities of
ManhattanandBrooklyninNewYorkCitybeingonenotableexample.
Despite this progress, significant challenges remain today. Buildings, bridges,
roads,nuclearpowerplants,andotherinfrastructureessentialtooureconomicand
socialwell-beingareatanincreasingriskfromterrorism,climatechange,hurricanes,
storms,floods,earthquakes,heatwaves,fires,andotherextremeevents.Thetiming
and severity of these extremes are highly uncertain and are characterised as low
probability–high consequence events. Risk and cost–benefit analyses of protective
measuresaimtoreducethevulnerabilityofinfrastructureandhencereducethefuture
impact of extreme events to reveal protective measures that are cost effective and
those that are not. Relevant also are private and public policy imperatives in the
decision-makingprocess.
Extreme events and actions taken to reduce the vulnerability of infrastructure
aresometimesbasedonworst-casethinking,probabilityandcostneglect,andrisk
aversion.Thiscanresultinafrightenedpublic,costlypolicyoutcomes,andwasteful
expenditures.
Thebookwillexplainhowriskanddecision-makinganalyticscanbeappliedtothe
wickedproblemofprotectinginfrastructureandsocietyfromextremeevents.There
isincreasingresearchthattakesintoaccounttherisksassociatedwiththetimingand
severityofextremeeventsinengineeringtoreducethevulnerabilityorincreasingthe
v
vi Preface
resiliency of infrastructure—we refer to this as ‘Engineering for Extremes’. Engi-
neering for extremes is defined as measures taken to reduce the vulnerability or
increasetheresiliencyofbuiltinfrastructuretoclimatechange,hurricanes,storms,
floods, earthquakes, heat waves, fires, and malevolent and abnormal events that
includeterrorism,accidentalexplosionorfire,vehicleimpact,andvehicleoverload.
This may include, for example, enhancement of design standards (higher design
loadsorfloodlevels),retrofittingorstrengtheningofexistingstructures,utilisation
ofnewmaterials,andchangestoinspectionandmaintenanceregimes.
The book will introduce the key concepts needed to assess the economic and
socialwell-beingrisks,costs,andbenefitsofinfrastructuretoextremeevents.This
willincludehazardmodelling(likelihoodandseverity),infrastructurevulnerability,
resilience or exposure (likelihood and extent of damage), social and economic
loss models, risk reduction from protective measures, and decision theory (cost–
benefit and utility analyses). This will be followed by case studies authored by
experts from Australia, USA, Canada, UK, Ireland, France, New Zealand, China,
Japan,SouthAfrica,andSouthAmerica.Thesecasestudieswilldescribesuccinctly
the practical aspects of risk assessment when deciding on the most cost-efficient
measurestoreduceinfrastructurevulnerabilitytoextremeeventsforhousing,build-
ings,bridges,roads,tunnels,pipelines,andelectricityinfrastructureinthedeveloped
anddevelopingworlds.
The editors have been colleagues and close friends for nearly 30 years. One
introduced the other to a lifetime addiction to Dunkin Donuts and the other to the
delightsofanAussiefavourite—TimTams.ThisbookbecameourCOVIDproject.
It was also an excuse to reach out to our friends and colleagues around the globe.
Their response to our book proposal was warm and generous. All the more so as,
we were all battling the personal trauma and professional disruptions wreaked by
COVID-19. In these trying times, their support was something we will not easily
forget.
Soweareincrediblygratefultotheauthorsofthechapters.Theauthorsshared
ourenthusiasmforthebookand,moreimportantly,devotedmuchtimeandenergyto
producingchaptersthatareattheforefrontofthelatestdevelopments,areengagingto
anon-specialistreader,andprovideafocusonpracticaldecisionoutcomes.Thechap-
tersreflecttheexpertiseoftheauthorsandthelatestdevelopmentsonengineering
forextremes.
Finally,weappreciatethesupportfromthefolksatSpringerinbringingthisbook
tofruition.
Newcastle,Australia MarkG.Stewart
Kansas,USA DavidV.Rosowsky
May2021
Contents
PartI Introduction
1 ExtremeEventsforInfrastructure:UncertaintyandRisk ......... 3
MarkG.StewartandDavidV.Rosowsky
PartII Decision-Making
2 Risks and Compromises: Principled Compromises
inManagingSocietalRisksofExtremeEvents ................... 31
PaoloGardoniandColleenMurphy
3 Risk-InformedApproachesforMitigatingImpactsofExtreme
andAbnormalEventsintheBuiltEnvironment .................. 45
BruceR.Ellingwood
PartIII CaseStudies
4 AviationResiliencetoTerroristHijackings ...................... 69
MarkG.StewartandJohnMueller
5 ChallengesofEffectiveBlastProtectionofBuildings .............. 93
HongHaoandXihongZhang
6 Adaptation of Housing to Climate Change and Extreme
Windstorms .................................................. 119
HaoQinandMarkG.Stewart
7 Risk-Based Management of Electric Power Distribution
SystemsSubjectedtoHurricaneandTornadoHazards ........... 143
YueLi,AbdullahiM.Salman,AbdullahBraik,SirrýBjarnadóttir,
andBabakSalarieh
8 Hurricane Fragility Assessment of Power Transmission
TowersforaNewSetofPerformance-BasedLimitStates ......... 167
YousefM.Darestani,AshkanB.Jeddi,andAbdollahShafieezadeh
vii
viii Contents
9 BuildingAdaptationtoExtremeHeatwaves ...................... 189
DileepKumar,MorshedAlam,andJaySanjayan
10 ImprovingRegionalInfrastructureResiliencetoEarthquakes,
StormsandTsunami .......................................... 217
DavidElms,IanMcCahon,andRobDewhirst
11 Earthquake-Tsunami Risk Assessment and Critical
Multi-hazardLossScenarios:ACaseStudyinJapanUnder
theNankai-TonankaiMega-Thrust ............................. 235
KatsuichiroGoda, RaffaeleDeRisi, FlaviaDeLuca,
ArioMuhammad,TomohiroYasuda,andNobuhitoMori
12 BuildingResilienceinChangingCryosphereServices ............. 255
BoSu,XiaomingWang,CundeXiao,JinglinZhang,andBinMa
13 ExtremeVehiclesandBridgeSafety ............................. 271
ColinCapraniandMayerMelhem
14 FireSafetyinRoadTunnels .................................... 293
T.D.GerardCanisius,DimitrisDiamantidis,andSureshKumar
15 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Design for Progressive Collapse
UnderAccidentalorMalevolentExtremeEvents ................. 313
AndréTeófiloBeck, LucasdaRosaRibeiro,
andMarcosValdebenito
16 DurabilityandPerformanceofWindTurbinesUnderClimate
Extremes ..................................................... 335
RuiTeixeira,AlanO’Connor,andDimitriV.Val
17 ExtremeValueAnalysisforOffshorePipelineRiskEstimation .... 355
RobertE.Melchers
18 Reliability Assessment of Corroded Pipelines Subjected
toSeismicActivity ............................................. 373
RafaelAmaya-Gómez, MauricioSánchez-Silva,
andEmilioBastidas-Arteaga
19 ClimateChangeImpactforBridgesSubjecttoFlooding .......... 393
BoulentImam
20 Bushfire and Climate Change Risks to Electricity
TransmissionNetworks ........................................ 413
Chi-HsiangWang
21 ProvisionsforClimateChangeinStructuralDesignStandards .... 429
JohanRetiefandCelesteViljoen
Contents ix
PartIV ConclusionsandRecommendations
22 ConclusionsforEngineersandPolicyMakers .................... 449
DavidV.RosowskyandMarkG.Stewart