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Energy Trading and Risk Management: A Practical Approach to Hedging, Trading and Portfolio Diversification PDF

296 Pages·2014·7.73 MB·English
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Energy Trading and Risk Management Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Aus- tralia and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. The Wiley Finance series contains books written specifically for finance and investment professionals as well as sophisticated individual investors and their financial advisors. Book topics range from portfolio manage- ment to e-commerce, risk management, financial engineering, valuation and financial instrument analysis, as well as much more. For a list of available titles, visit our Web site at www.WileyFinance.com. Energy Trading and Risk Management A Practical Approach to Hedging, Trading, and Portfolio Diversification IrIS MAck cover Design: Wiley cover Image: ©iStockphoto.com/Estate of Stephen Laurence Strathdee copyright © 2014 by John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. 1 Fusionopolis Walk, #07-01, Solaris South Tower, Singapore 138628 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as expressly permitted by law, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through pay- ment of the appropriate photocopy fee to the copyright clearance center. requests for permission should be addressed to the Publisher, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd., 1 Fusionopolis Walk, #07-01, Solaris South Tower, Singapore 138628, tel: 65–6643–8000, fax: 65–6643–8008, e-mail: [email protected]. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifi- cally disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any damages arising herefrom. Other Wiley Editorial Offices John Wiley & Sons, 111 river Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA John Wiley & Sons, The Atrium, Southern Gate, chichester, West Sussex, P019 8SQ, United kingdom John Wiley & Sons (canada) Ltd., 5353 Dundas Street West, Suite 400, Toronto, Ontario, M9B 6HB, canada John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd., 42 McDougall Street, Milton, Queensland 4064, Australia Wiley-VcH, Boschstrasse 12, D-69469 Weinheim, Germany ISBN 978-1-118-33933-6 (Hardcover) ISBN 978-1-118-33936-7 (ePDF) ISBN 978-1-118-33934-3 (ePub) Typeset in 10/12 pt, Sabon LT Std by Aptara Printed in Singapore by c.O.S. Printers Pte Ltd 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 In loving memory of my parents: Dorothy Mack Watson (mom) U.S. Army Veteran Willie Mack, Jr. (dad) Fred Watson Sr. (stepdad) Contents Preface xiii Acknowledgments xxv About the Author xxvii About the Contributors xxix ChAPter 1 energy Markets Fundamentals 1 1.1 Physical Forward and Futures Markets 3 1.2 Spot Market 5 1.3 Intraday Market 10 1.4 Balancing and Reserve Market 10 1.5 Congestion Revenue Rights, Financial Transmission Rights, and Transmission Congestion Contracts 11 1.6 Chapter Wrap-Up 12 References 13 ChAPter 2 Quant Models in the energy Markets: role and Limitations 15 2.1 Spot Prices 17 2.1.1 Random Walk Jump-Diffusion Model 19 2.1.2 Mean Reversion: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process 23 2.1.3 Mean Reversion: Schwartz Type 1 Stochastic Process 25 2.1.4 Mean Reversion with Jumps 25 2.1.5 Two-Factor Model 26 2.1.6 Negative Prices 27 2.2 Forward Prices 28 2.2.1 Forward and Futures Markets 28 2.2.2 Contango and Backwardation 30 2.3 Chapter Wrap-Up 31 References 31 vii viii Contents ChAPter 3 Plain Vanilla energy Derivatives 33 3.1 Definition of Energy Derivatives 34 3.2 Global Commodity Exchanges 35 3.3 Energy Derivatives Pricing Models 36 3.4 Settlement 37 3.5 Energy Derivatives Quant Models: Role and Limitations 38 3.6 Options 40 3.6.1 Volatility 42 3.7 Vanilla Options 43 3.7.1 Option Style 44 3.7.2 Exchange-Traded and Over-the-Counter Options 44 3.7.3 In-the-Money, At-the-Money, and Out-of-the-Money Options 45 3.7.4 Put-Call Parity 46 3.8 European Options 47 3.9 American Options 50 3.10 Swaps 52 3.11 Swaps to Futures 54 3.12 Chapter Wrap-Up 54 References 54 ChAPter 4 exotic energy Derivatives 59 4.1 Asian Options 60 4.1.1 Classes of Asian Options 61 4.1.2 Payoffs of Asian Options 62 4.1.3 Solutions to Asian Options 63 4.1.4 Asian Options in the Energy Markets 63 4.2 Barrier Options 63 4.2.1 Eight Types of Barrier Options 64 4.2.2 Partial Barrier Options 65 4.2.3 Solutions to Barrier Options 66 4.2.4 Barrier Options in the Energy Markets 66 4.3 Digital Options 66 4.3.1 Types of Digital Options 67 4.3.2 Solutions to Digital Options 69 4.3.3 Digital Options in the Energy Markets 69 4.4 Real Options 71 4.4.1 Real Options in the Electric Power Markets 71 4.4.2 Case Study: Real Options in the Oil Markets 72

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A comprehensive overview of trading and risk management in the energy markets Energy Trading and Risk Management provides a comprehensive overview of global energy markets from one of the foremost authorities on energy derivatives and quantitative finance. With an approachable writing style, Iris
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