Energy Systems Modeling and Policy Analysis

441 Pages·2022·39.412 MB·English

by  B. K. Bala

i
Energy Systems Modeling
and Policy Analysis
ii
iii
Energy Systems Modeling
and Policy Analysis
B K Bala
Fareast International University, Banani, Dhaka, Bangladesh
iv
First edition published 2022
by CRC Press
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL 33487- 2742
and by CRC Press
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
© 2022 B K Bala
CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and
publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use.
The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in
this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been
obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged, please write and let us know so we may
rectify in any future reprint.
Except as permitted under US Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced,
transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or
hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage
or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers.
For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, access www.copyright.com
or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923,
978- 750- 8400. For works that are not available on CCC, please contact mpkbookspermissions@tandf.
co.uk
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks and are used
only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
ISBN: 9781032110998 (hbk)
ISBN: 9781032111018 (pbk)
ISBN: 9781003218401 (ebk)
DOI: 10.1201/ 9781003218401
Typeset in Times
by Newgen Publishing UK
v
Contents
Foreword ...............................................................................................................xv
Preface .................................................................................................................xvii
Author Biography ................................................................................................xix
Chapter 1 Introduction .......................................................................................1
1.1 Introduction .............................................................................1
1.2 Complexity and Dynamics of Energy Systems .......................4
1.3 Concepts of Systems and System Dynamics ..........................6
1.4 Modes of Behavior of Dynamic Systems ...............................9
1.5 Linear Programming .............................................................12
1.6 Integrated Energy Systems and Systems Approach ..............13
1.7 Energy Modeling and Systems Approach .............................15
1.8 Systems Thinking and Modeling ..........................................16
1.9 Usefulness of Models ............................................................16
1.10 Energy Policy Analysis .........................................................17
1.11 Structure of the Book ............................................................17
References .......................................................................................18
Chapter 2 Modeling and Simulation ................................................................21
2.1 Introduction ...........................................................................21
2.2 Models and Simulation .........................................................21
2.3 Systems Thinking ..................................................................23
2.3.1 Systems Thinking Methodology .............................23
2.3.1.1 Problem Identification .............................24
2.3.1.2 Dynamic Hypothesis ...............................26
2.3.1.3 Causal Loop Diagram ..............................27
2.3.1.4 Stock– Flow Diagram ...............................28
2.3.1.5 Parameter Estimation ..............................29
2.3.1.6 Model Validation, Sensitivity
Analysis and Policy Analysis ..................29
2.3.1.7 Application of the Model ........................30
2.3.2 Critical Aspects of Systems Thinking .....................30
2.3.3 Participatory Systems Thinking ..............................31
2.4 Causal Loop Diagrams ..........................................................31
2.4.1 Steps in a Causal Loop Diagram .............................34
2.4.2 Examples of Causal Loop Diagrams .......................36
2.4.2.1 Population Model ....................................36
2.4.2.2 Electricity Supply Model ........................37
v
vi
vi Contents
2.4.2.3 Electricity Supply, Demand and
Price Model .............................................38
2.4.2.4 Ethanol Production Model ......................39
2.4.2.5 Fuelwood Supply and Afforestation
Model ......................................................40
2.4.2.6 Global Warming Model ...........................41
2.5 Stock– Flow Diagrams ...........................................................42
2.5.1 Stock ........................................................................43
2.5.2 Flow .........................................................................44
2.5.3 Converter .................................................................44
2.5.4 Delays ......................................................................45
2.5.4.1 Role of Delay...........................................47
2.5.4.2 Choice of Delay Function........................47
2.5.5 Identification of Stock and Flow .............................47
2.5.6 Mathematical Representation of Stock and Flow ....48
2.5.7 Solution Interval ......................................................48
2.5.8 Functions Without Integration .................................49
2.5.9 Functions Containing Integration ............................53
2.5.10 Information Delay ...................................................54
2.5.10.1 First- Order Information Delay ................54
2.5.10.2 Third- Order Information Delay ...............54
2.5.11 Material Delay .........................................................56
2.5.12 Examples of Stock– Flow Diagrams ........................56
2.5.12.1 Electricity Demand Model ......................57
2.5.12.2 Electricity Supply Model ........................59
2.5.12.3 Electricity Supply and Demand, and
Price Model .............................................61
2.5.12.4 Palm Oil Biodiesel Model .......................68
2.5.12.5 Emissions from Electricity
Production Model ....................................74
2.5.12.6 Gradual Transition to Renewable
Energy Resources ....................................77
2.5.12.7 Pollution Model .......................................81
References .......................................................................................88
Chapter 3 Optimization Methods .....................................................................91
3.1 Introduction ...........................................................................91
3.2 Linear Programming .............................................................91
3.2.1 Example of a Linear Programming Problem ...........92
3.2.2 Simplex Method ......................................................93
3.3 Integer Programming ............................................................98
3.3.1 Branch and Bound Algorithm .................................98
3.4 Pareto Optimality ..................................................................99
vii
Contents vii
3.5 Examples of Linear Programming and Integer
Programming Problems ......................................................102
3.6 MARKAL Model ................................................................115
3.6.1 MARKAL Modeling .............................................115
3.6.2 Scenario Analysis ..................................................116
3.6.3 Energy Planning ....................................................117
References .....................................................................................120
Chapter 4 Communication Techniques ..........................................................123
4.1 Introduction .........................................................................123
4.2 Standards for Communication and
Information Exchange .........................................................123
4.3 Communication Technologies .............................................124
4.3.1 Transmission Medium ...........................................124
4.3.1.1 Information Transfer Using Sound
Waves.....................................................125
4.3.1.2 Information Transfer Using
Light Waves ...........................................125
4.3.1.3 Information Transfer Using
Electrical Signals ...................................125
4.3.1.4 Information Transfer Using
Electromagnetic Signals ........................125
4.3.2 Communication Channels .....................................125
4.3.3 Terms Related to Communication Channels .........125
4.3.3.1 Bandwidth .............................................125
4.3.3.2 Available Bandwidth .............................126
4.3.3.3 Channel Bandwidth ...............................126
4.3.3.4 Data Rate ...............................................126
4.3.4 Terms Related to Communication Signals ............127
4.3.4.1 Gain .......................................................127
4.3.4.2 Power Gain ............................................128
4.3.4.3 Attenuation ............................................128
4.3.4.4 Noise ......................................................130
4.3.4.5 Signal Propagation Delay ......................130
4.3.4.6 Distortion ...............................................130
4.3.4.7 Electrical Noise .....................................130
4.3.4.8 Signal- to- Noise Ratio ............................131
4.3.4.9 Filters .....................................................133
4.3.4.10 Encoding and Decoding ........................134
4.4 Communication Systems ....................................................134
4.4.1 Wired Communication ..........................................134
4.4.1.1 Power- Line Carrier ................................135
4.4.1.2 Twisted Pair Copper Cable ....................135
4.4.1.3 Coaxial Cable ........................................136
viii
viii Contents
4.4.1.4 Fiber- Optic Cable ..................................137
4.4.2 Wireless Communication ......................................137
4.4.2.1 Radio Communication ...........................138
4.4.2.2 Ultra- High Frequency ............................138
4.4.2.3 Microwave Radio ..................................138
4.4.2.4 Cellular Mobile Communication ...........138
4.4.2.5 Satellite Communication .......................139
4.4.2.6 Geostationary Orbit Satellite
Communication .....................................139
4.4.2.7 Low Earth Orbiting Satellite
Communication .....................................139
4.4.3 Multiplexing ..........................................................139
4.4.3.1 Frequency- Division Multiplexing .........139
4.4.3.2 Time- Division Multiplexing ..................140
4.5 Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA)
and Smart Grid ....................................................................140
4.5.1 Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition
(SCADA) ...............................................................141
4.5.2 Smart Grid .............................................................143
4.6 Smart Metering and Automation .........................................144
4.6.1 Smart Meters .........................................................144
4.6.2 Smart Appliances ...................................................145
4.6.3 Advanced Metering Infrastructure ........................145
4.6.4 Electrical Substation Automation ..........................146
4.6.4.1 Substation Automation Equipment ........147
4.6.4.2 Types of Substation Automation ...........148
4.6.4.3 Substation Automation System
Components ...........................................149
4.6.4.4 Substation Automation Information
Flow .......................................................150
4.6.4.5 Substation Automation System
Architecture ...........................................150
4.6.4.6 Smart Grid Control Center
Applications ..........................................151
4.7 Cyber Security ....................................................................154
4.7.1 Cyber Security Issues ............................................154
4.7.2 Information Security Domains ..............................155
4.7.2.1 Purpose of Domain Concept..................155
4.7.2.2 Authority and Security Policy ...............155
4.7.2.3 Security Domain Model ........................156
4.7.3 Cyber Security: Objectives and Requirements
for Smart Grid .......................................................156
4.7.3.1 Cyber Security Objectives .....................157
4.7.3.2 Cyber Security Requirements ................157
ix
Contents ix
4.7.3.3 Security Challenges ...............................157
4.7.4 Attacks against Smart Grid....................................158
4.7.4.1 Categories of Cyberattack .....................158
4.7.4.2 Cyberattacks Based on Three High-
Level Cyber Security Objectives ...........159
4.7.4.3 Cyberattacks against Utility
Companies .............................................159
4.7.4.4 Cyberattacks against Customers ............159
4.7.4.5 Cyberattacks against WAMPAC
Systems ..................................................160
4.7.5 Countermeasures for Attacks against
Smart Grid .............................................................160
4.7.5.1 Countermeasures to Secure a
Customer and Their HAN on a
Smart Grid .............................................161
4.7.5.2 Practices for Securing the Other End
of Smart Grid Utility Companies ..........161
4.8 Architecture of Communication Technology for Power
Systems ...............................................................................162
4.8.1 Communication Infrastructure of SCADA ............162
4.8.2 Communication Infrastructure of a Smart Grid ....164
4.9 Multi- Agent Systems ..........................................................166
4.9.1 Specifications of the Agents of Multi- Agent
Systems ..................................................................170
4.9.2 Functional Architectures of Multi- Agent
Systems ..................................................................171
4.9.3 Interoperability ......................................................172
4.9.4 MAS Modeling and MAS Simulation
Platforms ...............................................................172
4.9.5 Implementation Platforms of Multi- Agent
Systems ..................................................................173
References .....................................................................................174
Chapter 5 Modeling of Energy Demand, Supply and Price ...........................179
5.1 Introduction .........................................................................179
5.2 Energy Demand...................................................................179
5.2.1 Modeling of Energy Demand ................................180
5.2.1.1 LEAP Model .........................................180
5.2.1.2 System Dynamics Model ......................181
5.2.1.3 Artificial Neural Network Model ..........187
5.3 Energy Supply .....................................................................189
5.3.1 Modeling of Energy Supply ..................................190
5.4 Energy Balance ...................................................................194
5.4.1 Approaches to Energy Balancing ..........................196