Energy Systems Analysis for Developing Countries

351 Pages·1984·9.109 MB·English

by  Dr. Peter Meier (auth.)

Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
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~nUn ...U on On page,..8
Lectu re Notes
in Economics and
Mathematical Systems
Managing Editors: M. Beckmann and W. Krelle
222
Peter Meier
Energy Systems Analysis
for Developing Countries
Spri nger-Verlag
Berlin Heidelberg New York Tokyo 1984
Editorial Board
H. Albach A.V. Balakrishnan M. Beckmann (Managing Editor)
P.Dhrymes G. Fandel J. Green W Hildenbrand W Krelle (Managing Editor)
H. P. KOnzi G. L. Nemhauser K. Ritter R. Sato U. Schittko P. Schonfeld R. Selten
Managing Editors
Prof. Dr. M. Beckmann
Brown University
Providence, RI 02912, USA
Prof. Dr. W. Krelle
Institut fOr Gesellschafts-und Wirtschaftswissenschaften
der Universitat Bonn
Adenauerallee 24-42, 0-5300 Bonn, FRG
Author
Dr. Peter Meier
Institute for Energy Research
State University of New York at Stony Brook, Graduate Physics Building
Stony Brook N.Y. 11794, USA
ISBN-13:978-3-540-12879-3 e-ISBN-13:978-3-642-48337- 0
DOI:1 0.1 007/978-3-642-48337-0
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payable to "Verwertungsgesellschaft Wort", MUnich.
© by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1984
2142/3140-543210
PREFACE
The lecture notes presented in these pages were originally developed for
use in the Energy Management Training Program (EMTP), sponsored by the Office
of Energy, U.S. Agency for International Development. This program, held at
Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and the Institute for Energy Research,
State University of New York at Stony Brook, is designed to train mid-career
and senior government officials in developing countries in the techniques of
energy policy analysis and planning, and covers, in addition to the material
presented here, more detailed case studies in resource evaluation, pricing,
conservation, financial analysis, and investment planning. Since its incep
tion in 1978, some 220 individuals from 57 countries have attended the
course. These notes have also been used in executive level seminars and in
country training programs in the Sudan, the Dominican Republic, and the
People's Republic of China.
Attendance at the course is diverse, and typically includes planners,
managers, engineers, and economists from energy planning agencies, ministries
of finance and economic development, electric utilities, refineries and State
Oil Companies, and specialized energy planning units for energy conservation
and for regional cooperation. The monograph is designed not just as reading
material to support lectures, but also as a general self-contained reference
text for a very diverse audience: we have therefore included much introduc
tory material. The presentation is focused on a discussion of the basic
principles of systems analysis: and the case material has been specially
designed to illustrate these principles. Actual case studies are presented
in the course using a different set of monographs.
III
ACKNOWLEDQlENTS
Numerous individuals have contributed, directly or indirectly, to this
Monograph. A significant debt is owed to the many past participants of the
Energy Management Training Program (EMTP), whose insights and frank discus
sion of many pressing issues has greatly enriched the case material. Helpful
reviews of early drafts of this work, particularly by Jack Allentuck, and
many discussions with my Brookhaven Colleagues Vinod Mubayi and David Jhirad,
were also very helpful. And the encouragement and support of Robert Nathans,
for many years the Director of the EMTP, provided the essential motivation.
But the greatest debt is owed to June Martino and Pat Miller, who prepared
the manuscript. Without their humor, patience, and dedication through suc
cessive drafts, this Monograph could not have been brought to a conclusion.
Finally, the writer also acknowledges the support of the Office of
Energy, United States Agency for International Development, which provides
the financial sponsorship of the Energy Management Training Program.
IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Introduction .....................•.............................•...• 1
1.1 What is Energy Systems Analysis •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1
1.2 Applicability of Energy Systems Analysis to Developing
Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.3 A Framework for National Energy Planning....................... 6
1 .4 Scope of This Book............................................. 17
2 Mathematical Fundamentals ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 19
2.1 Matrix Algebra................................................. 19
2.2 Econometrics. . . . . . . . • • • • • • . . • . . . • • . • . • • . • . • . . . . . . . • • . . . . . . . • . • • 24
2.3 Linear Programming............................................. 40
2.4 Classical Optimization Techniques •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 47
2.5 Statistical Analysis of Energy Data: Oil Consumption
in Tunisia........ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3 Network Models. • • . • . . . . . . . . • • • • • • . • . . . • . • . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • • 61
3.1 Reference Energy Systems ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 61
3.2 Energy Demand and Fuel Mix Analysis............................ 69
3.3 Matrix Algebraic Formulation: Application to the
Dominican Republic ....•...•••.•....•..•....•..•.•.•.•.•.••••.. 72
It
3.4 Matrix Notation for Fuel Mix Tables; Residential Demand
in the Dominican Republic •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 81
4 Econometric Models .......••...•..••.•...•••......•..•.•.••.•.••••..• 113
4.1 Estimating Elasticities •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 115
4.2 Es timation Problems............................................ 118
4.3 Application: Income and Price Elasticity of Energy
Demand in Tunisia............................. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• 123
5 Petroleum Sector Models ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 125
5.1 Technical Background ••••••••••.•...•.••.....•.....••..•..•••••. 125
5.2 A Simple Refinery LP ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 136
5.3 Application to a West African Refinery ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 139
5.4 Application: Refinery Rehabilitation in Bangladesh •••••••••••• 155
6 Input-Output Models................................................. 167
6.1 Fundamentals of Input-Output Analysis •••••••••••••••••••••••••• 167
6.2 Energy Denominated I/O Tables •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 177
6.3 RES-Transaction Table Relationships •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 183
6.4 Interfue1 Substitutions in the I/O Framework ••••••••••••••••••• 188
6.5 An Energy Input-Output Model for Portugal •••••••••••••••••••••• 191
7 Industrial Process Models ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 205
7.1 Introduction ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 205
7.2 A Process Model of the Egyptian Iron and Steel Industry •••••••• 211
7.2.1 Introduction •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 211
7.2.2 Options for the Egyptian Iron & Steel Industry •••••••••• 211
7.2.3 Formulation as a Linear Program ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 222
v
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
8 Electric Sector Models •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 231
8.1 Introduction ....................•.............................. 231
8.2 The Capacity Expansion Problem ••••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••••• 232
8.3 Adding a Spatial Dimension: The Siting Problem •••••••••••••••• 241
8.4 The Treatment of Electric Transmission in Spatial
Program.m.ing Models ••••••••••••.•.•••••••••••••••••••••.••••.••• 257
8.5 Incorporating Water Resource Planning Considerations ••••••••••• 265
8.6 Environmental Considerations ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••• 272
8.7 An LP of the Jordanian Electric System ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 275
9 Energy System Optlmizat~on Models .••••••••••••••..••••••••••••.••••• 293
9.1 The Basic Linear Programming Model ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 293
9.2 Capacity Variables ••..••••••••..••••••••••••..••••••••••••••••. 298
9.3 Interpretation of the Shadow Prices •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 302
10 Simulation Models .....••.•....•.....•••.........••.................• 307
10.1 Introduction................................................... 307
10.2 An Energy Cash Flow Simulation Model ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 310
11 Energy Economic Linkages .••..•.......•••.........•..............•.•• 329
11.1 Linking the I/O and LP ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 331
11.2 Process Model Linkages •...•.•.........••.•......•••••.......... 331
11.3 Macroeconomic Linkages ..•....••.........••..•...........•...••• 335
Bi bliography .....••..•.•...•.•..•••...•.••••••....•....•..••••...••. 339
VI
1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 WHAT IS ENERGY SYSTEMS ANALYSIS?
Energy systems analysis is a young field, with no long history of aca-
demic scholarship. Indeed, it is not even clear that energy planning and
policy analysis itself has much recognition as an academic discipline, and
the body of such knowledge as might be termed energy planning remains ill de
fined. Moreover, the body of knowledge that is germane to the unique prob
lems of the third world is extremely fragmented, much of it not generally
available in the places where lessons learned in one country could be use
fully applied in another.
Debates about the legitimacy of new fields of study, especially in cases
that cross the traditional academic delineations, are of course not new. The
debate over what is geography has occupied the pages of learned journals for
decades; the evolution of comprehensive land use planning in the 1950's and
1960's, and environmental engineering in the 1960's and 1970's, faced similar
definitional problems. These debates were not entirely semantic, since their
resolution had a great deal to do with where and how such fields were taught
in universities, and the directions of research that followed. Moreover,
particularly in reference to the third world, there are those who view energy
planning as a simple extension of economic development planning. Others
would stress the scientific and engineering basis. However, there appears to
be evolving a broad consensus among both educators and practioners that
energy planning for developing countries is indeed a discipline in its own
right, that cannot simply be viewed as an extension of traditional develop
ment planning.
The essence of energy planning, as opposed to the more traditional sec
toral planning activities--electric sector planning, refinery and petroleum
sector planning, or industrial development planning--lies in the compre
hensiveness of analysis; in the understanding of inter-fuel substitution
(rather than just identifying the most effective delivery system for a single
fuel); in the understanding of the interaction of energy with economic
development (rather than energy needs merely emerging from a sectoral
development plan); and in the understanding of the competition of energy
sector investment needs with non-energy sector investment needs (rather than
the traditional isolation in which the capital intensive electric sector
defined its expansion program). Energy systems analysis, then, is simply the
quantitative treatment of such problems;l its relationship to energy planning
is analogous to, say, the position of environmental systems analysis to
environmental planning. It rests on the integration of a number of
traditional disciplines economics, engineering, mathematics into a
coherent analytical framework that stresses the interaction of the different
compocomponents of the system.2
lActually the original use of the term systems analysis did not necessarily
imply quantitative, mathematical treatment of the system under study: some
of the classic texts contain not a single equation. Sys tems analysis was
meant simply as a way of approaching complex problems, emphasising compre
hensive rather than partial analysis. In general, however, systems analysis
has come to imply the use of formal mathematical techniques, and it is in
this sense that we shall use the term here.
2The definitional difficulties here are typified by the National Research
Council Report, "Systems Analysis and Operations Research: A Tool for
Policy and Program Planning for Developing Countires," Commission on
International Relations National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.,
which defines applied sys tems analysis in the following terms: "Applied
Systems Analysis is not merely a technique or group of techniques such as
probability theory or mathematical problems; rather it can be thought of as
a broad research strategy one that involves the use of techniques, concepts,
and a scientific, systematic approach to the solution of complex problems.
It is a framework of thought designed to help decision makers choose a
desirable (or in some cases a "best") course of action," (p. 65). Systems
analysis, then, is not easy to define in a few words.
2
Digression 1.1: The Necessity for Judgement.
Some of the more egregious failures of energy systems modelling are to be attributed less to the
shortcomings of the models themselves as much as the mode in which they are used, and the fail
ure to appreciate the necessity for judgement In the assumptions that are used to drive the
scenarios. An excellent example is the assumption made for world 011 prices in the 1979 Annual
Report to Congress by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy.
The figure below shows the world 011 price trajectory used as a basis for this study. To be
sure, this was prepared in October 1978, prior to the events In I ran that sparked the price
Increases in 1979. But the report, appearing In mid 1979, was widely criticized; and the models
used in its preparations castigated for fai ling to "predict" the price increases. Of course It
was not a fal lure of model prediction at a", since the world 011 price was a matter of exogenous
assumption; rather It was a failure of jUdgement or, perhaps less charitably, an unwl I lingness to
go against the conventional wisdom at the time, which held that since 011 prices had stayed
constant In real terms over the Interval 75 - 78, it would be some years until prices again rose
I n rea I terms.
Past and Projected Price of Arabian Light Crude Oil
1960-2000
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c
0
0
____
O~--~----~----~----~----L---~ _L_ ___~
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
3