Effects of Water Use and Land Use on Streamflow and Aquatic Habitat in the Sudbury and Assabet

176 Pages·2010·34.03 MB·English

Prepared in cooperation with the
Massachusetts Executive Office of Environmental Affairs
Department of Conservation and Recreation
Effects of Water Use and Land Use on Streamflow and
Aquatic Habitat in the Sudbury and
Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts
Scientific Investigations Report 2010–5042
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey

Effects of Water Use and Land Use on
Streamflow and Aquatic Habitat in the
Sudbury and Assabet River Basins,
Massachusetts
By Phillip J. Zarriello, Gene W. Parker, David S. Armstrong, and Carl S. Carlson
Prepared in cooperation with the
Massachusetts Executive Office of Environmental Affairs
Department of Conservation and Recreation
Scientific Investigations Report 2010–5042
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior
KEN SALAZAR, Secretary
U.S. Geological Survey
Marcia K. McNutt, Director
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2010

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Suggested citation:
Zarriello, P.J., Parker, G.W., Armstrong, D.S., and Carlson, C.S., 2010, Effects of water use and land use on streamflow
and aquatic habitat in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Inves-
tigations Report 2010–5042, 160 p.
ISBN 978 1 4113 2944 7
iii
Contents
Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1
Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2
Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................2
Description of the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins ..................................................................2
Population .....................................................................................................................................4
Climate ...........................................................................................................................................4
Surface-Water Resources and Streamflow ............................................................................4
Topography ...................................................................................................................................7
Surficial Geology ..........................................................................................................................7
Wetlands .......................................................................................................................................7
Land use ........................................................................................................................................7
Water Withdrawals and Wastewater Returns .....................................................................11
Stream Habitat ..........................................................................................................................11
Previous Studies .................................................................................................................................11
Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................14
References Cited..........................................................................................................................................14
Chapter 1—Simulated Effects of Water Use, and Projected Water-Use and
Land-Use Change on Streamflow with a Precipitation-Runoff Model .................................17
Purpose and Scope ............................................................................................................................17
Time-Series Data ................................................................................................................................17
Climate .........................................................................................................................................18
Water Withdrawals and Wastewater Returns .....................................................................18
Streamflow .................................................................................................................................19
Precipitation-Runoff Model ...............................................................................................................20
Functional Description of the HSPF Model ....................................................................................20
Representation of the Basin .............................................................................................................22
Development of Hydrologic Response Units ........................................................................24
Impervious Areas (IMPLNDs) .........................................................................................24
Pervious Areas (PERLNDs) .............................................................................................24
Stream Reaches (RCHRES) ......................................................................................................29
Hydraulic Characteristics (FTABLEs) .............................................................................29
Lakes and Impoundments ..............................................................................................29
Wetlands ............................................................................................................................29
Water Withdrawals and Wastewater Returns ............................................................32
Model Calibration................................................................................................................................32
Sudbury River at Ashland ........................................................................................................33
Sudbury River at Saxonville ....................................................................................................37
Assabet River at Maynard ........................................................................................................37
Nashoba Brook near Acton ............................................................................................37
Hydrologic Flow Components and Water Budgets .......................................................................41
Sensitivity Analysis .............................................................................................................................44
Model Uncertainty and Limitations ..................................................................................................46
iv
Simulated Effects of Water Use and Land Use on Streamflow ...................................................47
Effects of Current Water Use on Streamflow .......................................................................48
Effects of Groundwater and Surface-Water Withdrawals on Streamflow ......................53
Effects of Potential Water- and Land-Use Change on Streamflow ...................................53
Potential Effects of Reactivating Production Wells near Lake Cochituate ......................65
Summary...............................................................................................................................................70
References Cited.................................................................................................................................74
Chapter 2—Fish Communities, Stream Temperature, and Assessment of Minimum Streamflow
Targets for Aquatic Habitat at Selected Sites in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins,
Massachusetts ...............................................................................................................................76
Purpose and Scope ............................................................................................................................76
Fish Communities ................................................................................................................................76
Main-Stem River Fish Communities .......................................................................................77
Cold-Water Fishery Resources ...............................................................................................80
Stream Temperature ...........................................................................................................................80
Determination and Assessment of Target Streamflows for Aquatic Habitat at 10 Riffle
Sites .........................................................................................................................................84
Physically Based Streamflow Targets ....................................................................................84
Whitehall Brook near Hopkinton ....................................................................................87
Sudbury River near Hopkinton ........................................................................................87
Sudbury River near Ashland ....................................................................................................90
Indian Brook near Hopkinton ..........................................................................................91
Indian Brook near Ashland .............................................................................................91
Baiting Brook near Framingham ....................................................................................92
Assabet River near Westborough ..................................................................................93
Danforth Brook at Hudson ...............................................................................................93
Fort Meadow Brook near Hudson ..................................................................................94
Elizabeth Brook near Stow .......................................................................................................95
Statistically Based Streamflow Targets .................................................................................96
Tennant Method ................................................................................................................96
New England Aquatic Base Flow Method (ABF) .........................................................96
Range of Variability Approach (RVA) .............................................................................98
Comparison of Computed Target Flows .................................................................................99
Frequency and Duration Streamflows were below Target Flows ..................................101
Summary.............................................................................................................................................104
References Cited...............................................................................................................................108
Appendix 1. Partial Listing of the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF)
Model Run File (uci) .....................................................................................................................111
Appendix 2. Calibration of a One-Dimensional Channel Hydraulic Model (HEC-RAS) used to
Determine Physically Based Target Flows at Six Riffle Reaches in the Sudbury River
Basin ..............................................................................................................................................123
Water-Surface-Profile Model ........................................................................................................124
Whitehall Brook near Hopkinton ...........................................................................................125
Sudbury River near Hopkinton ...............................................................................................127
Sudbury River near Ashland ..................................................................................................128
Indian Brook near Hopkinton .................................................................................................132
v
Indian Brook near Ashland ....................................................................................................135
Baiting Brook near Framingham ...........................................................................................136
Appendix 3. Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations (IHA) Computed from Long-Term (1960–2004)
Daily Streamflows Simulated with the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF)
without Withdrawals (NOWU) at 10 Riffle Reaches in the Sudbury and Assabet River
Basins .............................................................................................................................................139
Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) Statistics ...................................................................140
References Cited...............................................................................................................................140
Appendix 4. Duration and Frequency Long-Term (1960–2004) Daily Streamflow Simulated
with the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) with (AVGWU) and without
(NOWU) Withdrawals were below Target Flows Determined by Six Standard-Setting
Methods at 10 Riffle Sites in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins .................................153
Frequency and Duration Simulated Streamflows were below Target Flows .........................154
References Cited...............................................................................................................................154
Figures
1. Map showing towns, streamgages, and climate stations in and near the Sudbury
and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ..............................................................................3
2. Graph showing mean annual streamflow, water years 1942–2006, Assabet River at
Maynard, Massachusetts ...........................................................................................................6
3. Map showing elevation, simplified surficial geology, and major water withdrawals
and return flows in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ....................8
4. Map showing forested and nonforested wetlands in the Sudbury and Assabet
River Basins, Massachusetts .....................................................................................................9
5. Map showing land use classified from 1997 aerial photography in the Sudbury and
Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ...................................................................................10
6. Simplified schematic representation of the Hydrologic Simulation
Program–FORTRAN inflows and outflows to a stream ........................................................23
7. Graph showing distribution of general Hydrologic Response Unit types for pervious
area and impervious area used to develop the Hydrologic Simulation Program–
FORTRAN for the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ............................26
8. Map showing public water and sewer infrastructure in the Sudbury and Assabet
River Basins, Massachusetts. ..................................................................................................27
9. Map showing discretization of the stream reaches used in the Hydrologic
Simulation Program–FORTRAN model of the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................30
10. Graphs showing annual (A) and monthly (B) precipitation variability in relation to
model error at streamgages on the Sudbury River at Ashland and Saxonville,
Assabet River at Maynard, and Nashoba Brook near Acton, Massachusetts,
1993 to 2003 ..................................................................................................................................34
11. Graphs showing simulated flow in relation to observed and estimated flow for
(A) daily mean, (B) mean monthly, (C) mean annual, (D) daily mean flow-duration
curves, and (E) daily mean hydrographs, at Sudbury River at Ashland,
Massachusetts, 1993 to 2003 ....................................................................................................36
vi
12. Graphs showing simulated flow in relation to observed flow for (A) daily mean,
(B) mean monthly, (C) mean annual, (D) daily mean flow-duration curves,
and (E) daily mean hydrographs, at Sudbury River at Saxonville, Massachusetts,
1993 to 2003 ..................................................................................................................................38
13. Graphs showing simulated flow in relation to observed flow for (A) daily mean,
(B) mean monthly, (C) mean annual, (D) daily mean flow-duration curves,
and (E) daily mean hydrographs, at Assabet River at Maynard, Massachusetts,
1993 to 2003 ..................................................................................................................................39
14. Graphs showing simulated flow in relation to observed flow for (A) daily mean,
(B) mean monthly, (C) mean annual, (D) daily mean flow-duration curves,
and (E) daily mean hydrographs, at Nashoba Brook near Acton, Massachusetts,
1993 to 2003 ..................................................................................................................................40
15. Graphs showing mean annual 1993–2003 water-budget outflow components (A) in
inches per acre and (B) in inches over the basin from each Hydrologic Response
Unit simulated by the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN model of the
Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ............................................................42
16. Graphs showing mean 1993–2003 March water-budget outflow components
(A) in inches per acre and (B) in inches over the basin from each Hydrologic
Response Unit simulated by the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN
model of the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ....................................43
17. Graphs showing mean 1993–2003 August water-budget outflow components
(A) in inches per acre and (B) in inches over the basin from each Hydrologic
Response Unit simulated by the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN
model of the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ....................................45
18. Graphs showing summary of 1993–2003 mean (A) annual, (B) March,
and (C) August water-budget outflow components simulated by the Hydrological
Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model of the Sudbury and Assabet River
Basins, Massachusetts. ...........................................................................................................46
19. Graphs showing daily mean flow-duration curves from long-term simulations
with no withdrawals, average 1993–2003 withdrawals, groundwater-only
withdrawals, and surface-water-only withdrawals at (A) Jackstraw Brook,
(B) Piccadilly Brook, (C) Ashland Reservoir Outle, and (D) Lake Cochituate outlet,
upper Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts ..........................................................................50
20. Map showing percent change in the simulated long-term mean annual
streamflows with average 1993–2003 withdrawals relative to no withdrawals
in the upper Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts ...............................................................52
21. Map showing percent change in the simulated long-term median of the August
mean streamflows with average 1993–2003 withdrawals relative to no withdrawals
in the upper Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts ...............................................................53
22. Graph showing daily mean flow-duration curves from long-term simulations with
no withdrawals and average 1993–2003 withdrawals, at Indian Brook, upper
Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts .....................................................................................54
23. Map showing percent change in the simulated long-term median of the August
mean flows with average 1993–2003 groundwater withdrawals relative to no
withdrawals in the upper Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts .......................................55
24. Map showing percent change in the simulated long-term median of the August
mean flows with average 1993–2003 surface-water withdrawals relative to no
withdrawals in the upper Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts .......................................56
25. Maps showing generalized land use as (A) classified from 1997 interpreted 1:25,000
aerial photographs, and (B) projected 2030 buildout analysis by the Metropolitan
Area Planning Council, upper Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts ................................58
vii
26. Map showing percent change in the simulated long-term median of the August
mean flows with estimated 2030 water withdrawals distributed among existing
supply sources relative to no withdrawals in the upper Sudbury River Basin,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................61
27. Map showing percent change in the simulated long-term median of the August
mean flows with estimated 2030 water withdrawals dispersed among self-supply
sources and a 20-percent consumptive use relative to no withdrawals in the upper
Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts .....................................................................................62
28. Map showing percent change in the simulated long-term median of the August
mean flows with estimated 2030 land use and water withdrawals distributed among
existing supply sources relative to no withdrawals in the upper Sudbury River Basin,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................63
29. Map showing percent change in the simulated long-term median of the August
mean flows with estimated 2030 land use and water withdrawals dispersed among
self-supply sources with a 20-percent consumptive loss relative to no withdrawals
in the upper Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts ...............................................................64
30. Graphs showing mean August water-budget outflow components by Hydrologic
Response Unit simulated by the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN in
upper Indian Brook under (A) 1997 land use and (B) projected 2030 land use, upper
Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts .....................................................................................66
31. Graphs showing mean August water-budget outflow components by Hydrologic
Response Unit simulated by the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN in
Course Brook under (A) 1997 land use and (B) projected 2030 land-use conditions,
upper Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts ..........................................................................67
32. Graphs showing daily mean flow-duration curves developed from 1960–2004
simulated flows under no withdrawals, average 1993–2003 withdrawals, and
reactivating production wells north of Lake Cochituate assuming water is induced
infiltration from or captured baseflow to Lake Cochituate only, Sudbury River only,
one third of the water is from Lake Cochituate and two thirds is from Sudbury River,
and two thirds of the water is from Lake Cochituate and one third is from Sudbury
River (BIR-LC66) at (A) Lake Cochituate outlet, and (B) Sudbury River at Saxonville,
upper Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts ..........................................................................69
33. Graphs showing daily mean stage of Lake Cochituate in 1999 simulated under no
withdrawals, average 1993–2003 withdrawals, and reactivating production wells
north of Lake Cochituate assuming water is induced infiltration from or captured
baseflow to Lake Cochituate only, Sudbury River only, one third of the water is from
Lake Cochituate and two thirds is from Sudbury River, and two thirds of the water is
from Lake Cochituate and one third is from Sudbury River, upper Sudbury River
Basin, Massachusetts ...............................................................................................................71
34. Photo showng Massachusetts Department of Fish and Game, Division of Fisheries
and Wildlife barge electrofishing to assess river-fish community composition ..............77
35. Map showing main-stem fish-sampling sites, cold-water fishery reaches,
stream-temperature gages, and riffle study locations in the Sudbury and Assabet
River Basins, Massachusetts ...................................................................................................78
36. Pie charts showing proportion of the fish community comprised of fluvial
specialists, fluvial dependents, and macrohabitat generalists collected in the main
stem of the (A) upper Sudbury and (B) Assabet Rivers, Massachusetts ..........................80
37. Graphs showing stream-water temperature recorded between August 2004 and
June 2006 in reaches unaffected by dams or withdrawals at (A) Jackstraw Brook
near Westborough, (B) Indian Brook near Hopkinton, and (C) Baiting Brook near
Framingham, Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts .............................................................82
viii
38. Graphs showing stream-water temperature recorded between August 2004 and
June 2006 in reaches below dams or withdrawals, or both, at (A) Whitehall Brook
near Hopkinton, (B) Sudbury River near Hopkinton, (C) Sudbury River near Ashland,
and (D) Cold Spring Brook near Ashland, Sudbury River Basin, Massachusetts ............83
39. Cross sections showing riffle-reach study section showing (A) position of
cross-section surveys, (B) cross-section profiles, (C) elevation and wetted
perimeter relation, and (D) streamflow and wetted perimeter, Fort Meadow Brook
near Hudson, Massachusetts ...................................................................................................86
40. Photo showing downstream view of riffle on Whitehall Brook at Fruit Street near
Hopkinton, Massachusetts .......................................................................................................87
41. Photo showing upstream view of riffle on Sudbury River at Fruit Street near
Hopkinton, Massachusetts .......................................................................................................90
42. Photo showing downstream view of riffle on Sudbury River near Ashland,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................90
43. Photo showing upstream view of riffle from bridge on Indian Brook near Hopkinton,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................91
44. Photo showing downstream view of riffle on Indian Brook near Ashland,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................92
45. Photo showing upstream view of riffle on Baiting Brook near Framingham,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................92
46. Photo showing downstream view of riffle on Assabet River near Westborough,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................93
47. Photo showing upstream view of riffle on Danforth Brook at Hudson,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................94
48. Photo showing upstream view of riffle on Fort Meadow Brook near Hudson,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................94
49. Photo showing downstream view of riffle on Elizabeth Brook near Stow,
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................95
50. Boxplots showing variation in target flows determined by standard-setting methods
at 10 riffle sites in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ..................100
51. Graph showing median and quartiles of the monthly median flow in comparison to
standard-setting method target flows determined at 10 riffle sites in the Sudbury
and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ..........................................................................102
52. Boxplots showing frequency and duration that long-term streamflows simulated
with the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN with and without withdrawals
were below target flows determined by six standard-setting methods at 10 riffle
sites in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts .....................................103
Tables
1. Population and percent change in population in towns in or partially within the
Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ..............................................................5
2. Registered and permitted water withdrawals from 1993 to 2003 in the Sudbury and
Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts. .................................................................................12
3. Wastewater returns from 1993 to 2003 from public-sewer systems in the Sudbury
and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts ............................................................................14