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Economic Models, Estimation and Risk Programming: Essays in Honor of Gerhard Tintner PDF

473 Pages·1969·7.6 MB·English
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This series aims to report new developments in mathematical economics and operations research and teaching quickly, informally and at a high level. The type of material considered for publication includes: 1. Preliminary drafts of original papers and monographs 2. Lectures on a new field, or presenting a new angle on a classical field 3. Seminar work-outs 4. Reports of meetings Texts which are out of print but still in demand may also be considered if they fall within these categories. The timeliness of a manuscript is more important than its form, which may be unfinished or tentative. Thus, in some instances, proofs may be merely outlined and results presented which have been or will later be published elsewhere. Publication of Lecture Notes is intended as a service to the international mathematical com- munity, in that a commercial publisher, Springer-Verlag, can offer a wider distribution to documents which would otherwise have a restricted readership. Once published and copyrighted, they can be documented in the scientific literature. Manuscripts Manuscripts are reproduced by a photographic process; they must therefore be typed with extreme care. Symbols not on the typewriter should he inserted by hand in indelible black ink. Corrections to the typescript should be made by sticking the amended text over the old one, or by obliterating errors with white correcting fluid. Should the text, or any part of it, have to be retyped, the author will be reimbursed upon publication of the volume. Authors receive 75 free copies. The typescript is reduced slightly in size during reproduction; best results will not be ob- tained unless the text on anyone page is kept within the overall limit of 18 x 26.5 cm (7 x 10 12 inches). The publishers will be pleased to supply on request special stationery with the typing area outlined. Manuscripts in English, German or French should be sent to Prof. Dr. 1\1. Beckmann, Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912/ USA or Prof. Dr. H. P. KUnzi, Institut fUr Operations Research und elektronische Datenverarbei- tung der Universitat ZUrich, SumatrastraBe 30, 8006 ZUrich. Die" Lecture Sotes" sollen rasch und inform ell, aber auf hohem Niveau, Uber neue Entwick- lungen der mathematischen Okonometrie und Unternehmensforschung berichten, wobei insbesondere auch Berichte und Darstellungen der flir die praktische Anwendung inter- essanten Methoden erwUnscht sind. Zur Veroffentlichung kommen: 1. Vorlaufige Fassungen von Originalarbeiten und Monographien. 2. Spezielle Vorlesungen Uber ein neues Gebiet oder ein klassisches Gebiet'in neuerBetrach- tungsweise. 3. Seminarausarbeitungen. 4. Vortrage von Tagungen. Ferner kommen auch altere vergriffene spezielle Vorlesungen, Seminare und Berichte in Frage, wenn nach ihnen eine anhaltende Nachfrage besteht. Die Beitrage dUrfen im Interesse einer groBeren Aktualitat durchaus den Charakter des Un- fertigen und Vorlaufigen haben. Sie brauchen Beweise unter Umstanden nur zu skizzieren und dUrfen auch Ergebnisse enthalten, die in ahnlicher Form schon erschienen sind oder spater erscheinen sollen. Die Herausgabe der "Lecture Notes" Serie durch den Springer-Verlag stellt eine Dienstlei- stung an die mathematischen Institute dar, indem der Springer-Verlag fUr ausreichende Lagerhaltung sorgt und einen groBen internationalen Kreis von Interessenten erfassen kann. Durch Anzeigen in Fachzeitschriften, Aufnahme in Kataloge und durch Anmeldung zum Copyright sowie durch die Versendung von Besprechungsexemplaren wird eine IUckenlose Dokumentation in den wissenschaftlichen Bibliotheken ermoglicht. GERHARD TINTNER Lectu re Notes in Operations Research and Mathematical Economics Edited by M. Beckmann, Providence and H. P. Kunzi, Zurich 15 Economic Models, Estimation and Risk Programming: Essays in Honor of Gerhard Tintner Edited by K. A. Fox, J. K. Sengupta, Iowa State University, Ames and G. V. L. Narasimham, New York University, New York City Springer-Verlag Berlin · Heidelberg · New York 1969 Contribution by K. A. Fox"T he Invisible Revolution: Emergence of a Mathematical Science" © 1962 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. Published 1962. First Phoenix Edition 1964. Third Impression 1965 ISBN-13: 978-3-540-04638-7 e-ISBN-13: 978-3-642-46198-9 DOl: 10.1007/978-3-642-46198-9 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically those of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, broadcasting, reproduction by photocopying machine or similar means, and storage in data banks. Under § 54 of the German Copyright Law where copies are made for other than private use, a fee is payable to the publisher, the amount of the fee to be determined by agreement with the publisher. © by Springer-Verlag BerlilJ . Heidelberg 1969. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 72-98260. Title No. 3764. PREFACE These essays in honor of Professor Gerhard Tintner are substantive contributions to three areas of econometrics, (1) economic models and applications,. (2) estimation, and (3) stochastic programming, in each of which he has labored with outstanding success. His own work has extended into multivariate analysis, the pure theory of decision-making under un- certainty, and other fields which are not touched upon here for reasons of space and focus. Thus, this collection is appropriate to his interests but covers much less than their full range. Professor Tintner's contributions to econometrics through teaching, writing, editing, lecturing and consulting have been varied and inter- national. We have tried to highlight them in "The Econometric Work of Gerhard Tintner" and to place them in historical perspective in "The Invisible Revolution in Economics: Emergence of a Mathematical Science." Professor Tintner's career to date has spanned the organizational life of the Econometric Society and his contributions have been nearly coextensive with its scope. His principal books and articles up to 1968 are listed in the "Selected Bibliography." Professor Tintner's current research involves the intricate problems of specification and application of stochastic processes to economic systems, particularly to growth, diffusion of technology, and optimal control. As always, he is moving with the econometric frontier and a portion of the frontier is moving with him. IV Two of the editors wrote dissertations under Professor Tintner's super- vision; the third knew him as a colleague and friend. While the editors took the initiative in organizing the volume, the responses of the other contributors were warm, generous, and prompt; many of them had known Professor Tintner longer, and in some respects better, than had the editors themselves. It would be inappropriate for the editors to thank the other contributors; let us simply say that Professor Tintner is fortunate in his friends. The editors wish to tnank Dr. Bikas C. Sanyal, who coordinated the notation and other technical features of the manuscript, and Helen M. Brown and Juanita Adams, who typed it in final form. On behalf of all the authors, we offer this collection of essays to Professor Tintner in honor of his pioneering contributions to econometrics and as a token of our friendship and high respect. Karl A. Fox G.V.L. Narasimham Jati K. Sengupta Ames and New York June 17, 1969 v CONTRIBUTORS S. N. AFRIAT, Professor of Economics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. R. L. ANDERSON, Professor of Statistics, University of Kentucky, Lexington. ABRAHAM CHARNES, University System Professor and Jesse H. Jones Professor of Management Science and Biomathematics, The University of Texas. WILLIAM W. COOPER, Professor of Public Policy and Dean of the School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University. KARL A. FOX, Distinguished Professor of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames. TRYGVE HAAVELMO, Professor of Economics, University of Oslo, Institute of Economics, Oslo, Norway. HARRY H. HALL, Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, University of Kentucky, Lexington. EARL O. HEADY, Charles F. Curtiss Distinguished Professor and Executive Director, Center for Agricultural and Economic Development, Iowa State University, Ames. DALE W. JORGENSON, Professor of Economics, Harvard University. DONALD W. KATZNER, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. LAWRENCE R. KLEIN, Benjamin Franklin Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania TJALLING C. KOOPMANS, Director, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University. PAUL V. MOESEKE, Professor Ordinarius of Mathematical Economics, University of Louvain and Professor of Economics, Iowa State Uni- versity, Ames. G.V.L. NARASIMHAM, Associate Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Business Administration, New York University, New York City. JAMES P. QUIRK, Professor of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence. JATI K. SENGUPTA, Professor of Economics and Statistics, Iowa State Uni- versity, Ames. C. J. STEILBERG, The Netherlands Railway, Utrecht, The Netherlands. VI HENRI THEIL, University Professor and Director, Center for Mathematical Studies in Business and Economics, University of Chicago. JAN·TINBERGEN, Professor of Development Programming, Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam. TONG-ENG WANG, Assistant Professor of Business Administration, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia. HERMAN WOLD, Professor of Statistics, University of Uppsala. ARNOLD ZELLNER, H.G.B. Alexander Professor of Economics and Statistics, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. VII TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE CONTRIBUTORS I. INTRODUCTORY ESSAYS 1 1. The Invisible Revolution in Economics: Emergence of a Mathematical Science by Karl A. Fox 2 2. The Econometric Work of Gerhard Tintner by Jati K. Sengupta 20 II. ECONOMIC MODELS AND APPLICATIONS 34 3. The Demand for Capital Services by Dale W. Jorgenson 35 4. The Competitive Equilibrium: A Qualitative Analysis by James P. Quirk 58 5. Stability of Absolute Prices in a Wa1rasian System by Trygve Haave1mo 86 6. Revealed Preference: Equivalence Theorem and Induced Pre order by Paul Van Moeseke 92 7. Objectives, Constraints and Outcomes in Optimal Growth Models by Tja11ing C. Koopmans 110 8. The Theory of the Optimum Regime by Jan Tinbergen 133 9. Application of Linear and Nonlinear Programming Models in Specifying Land Use, Spatial Equilibrium and Prices for Agriculture by Earl O. Heady and Harry Hall 190 10. Estimating the Effects of Institutional and Technological Changes upon Agricultural Development: A Comparison of Multiple Regression and Programming Approaches by Karl A. Fox and Tong-eng Wang 223 11. Thirty-three Supply Curves of Three-Month Loans by Henri Theil and C. J. Stei1berg 261 VIII III. ESTIMATION OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS 276 12. Regression and Projection by S. N. Afriat 277 13. The Use of Prior Information in Regression Analysis by R. L. Anderson 302 14. E. P. Mackeprang's Question Concerning the Choice of Regression--A Key Problem in the Evolution of Econometrics by Herman O. Wold 325 15. On the Possibility of the General Linear Economic Model by Donald W. Katzner and Lawrence R. Klein 342 16. On the Aggregation Problem: A New Approach to a Troublesome Problem by Arnold Zellner 365 17. Some Properties of Estimators Occurring in the Theory of Linear Stochastic Processes by G. V. L. Narasimham 375 IV. STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING METHODS IN ECONOMIC MODELS 390 18. Distribution Problems in Stochastic and Chance- Constrained Programming by Jati K. Sengupta 391 19. Deterministic Equivalents for Optimizing and Satisficing under Chance-Constrained Programming by Abraham Charnes and William W. Cooper 425 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF GERHARD TINTNER 456

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