Dynamic Programming Based Operation of Reservoirs: Applicability and Limits (International Hydrology Series)

146 Pages·2007·2.292 MB·English

by  K. D. W. Nandalal, Janos J. Bogardi

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DynamicProgrammingBasedOperationofReservoirs
ApplicabilityandLimits
Dynamicprogrammingisamethodofsolvingmulti-stageproblemsinwhichdecisionsat
onestagebecometheconditionsgoverningthesucceedingstages.Itcanbeappliedtothe
managementofwaterreservoirs,allowingthemtobeoperatedmoreefficiently.
Thisisoneofthefewbooksdedicatedsolelytodynamicprogrammingtechniquesused
inreservoirmanagement.Itpresentstheapplicabilityofthesetechniquesandtheirlimits
intheoperationalanalysisofreservoirsystems.Inadditiontoprovidingoptimalreservoir
operationmodelsthattakeintoaccountwaterquantity,thebookalsoexaminesmodels
that consider water quality. The dynamic programming models presented in this book
havebeenappliedtoreservoirsystemsallovertheworld,helpingthereadertoappreciate
the applicability and limits of these models. The book also includes a model for the
operation of a reservoir during an emergency situation. This volume will be a valuable
reference to researchers in hydrology, water resources and engineering, as well as to
professionalsinreservoirmanagement.
K. D. W. NANDALAL isSeniorLecturerintheDepartmentofCivilEngineeringatthe
University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka. His research interests include water resources
systemsanalysisandreservoirwaterqualitymodeling.
JANOS J. BOGARDI is Director of the United Nations University Institute for
EnvironmentalandHumanSecurity.Hewasco-editorofRisk, Reliability,Uncertainty,
andRobustnessofWaterResourceSystems(CambridgeUniversityPress2002).
INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGY SERIES
TheInternationalHydrologicalProgramme(IHP)wasestablishedbytheUnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCultural
Organization(UNESCO)in1975asthesuccessortotheInternationalHydrologicalDecade.Thelong-termgoaloftheIHPisto
advance our understanding of processes occurring in the water cycle and to integrate this knowledge into water resources
management.TheIHPistheonlyUNscienceandeducationalprogrammeinthefieldofwaterresources,andoneofitsoutputs
hasbeenasteadystreamoftechnicalandinformationdocumentsaimedatwaterspecialistsanddecision-makers.
TheInternationalHydrologySerieshasbeendevelopedbytheIHPincollaborationwithCambridgeUniversityPressasamajor
collectionofresearchmonographs,synthesisvolumesandgraduatetextsonthesubjectofwater.Authoritativeandinternational
inscope,thevariousbookswithintheseriesallcontributetotheaimsoftheIHPinimprovingscientificandtechnicalknowledge
offresh-waterprocesses,inprovidingresearchknow-howandinstimulatingtheresponsiblemanagementofwaterresources.
EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD
SecretarytotheAdvisoryBoard
DrMichaelBonellDivisionofWaterScience,UNESCO,IrueMiollis,Paris75732,France
MembersoftheAdvisoryBoard
ProfessorB.P.F.BragaJrCentroTechnolo´gicadeHidra´ulica,Sa˜oPaulo,Brazil
ProfessorG.DaganFacultyofEngineering.TelAvivUniversity,Israel
Dr.J.KhouriWaterResourcesDivision,ArabCentreforStudiesofAridZonesandDryLands,Damascus,Syria
DrG.LeavesleyUSGeologicalSurvey,WaterResourcesDivision,DenverFederalCenter,Colorado,USA
DrE.MorrisScottPolarResearchInstitute,Cambridge,UK
ProfessorL.OyebandeDepartmentofGeographyandPlanning,UniversityofLagos,Nigeria
ProfessorS.SorooshianDepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine,California,USA
ProfessorK.TakeuchiDepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,YamanashiUniversity,Japan
ProfessorD.E.WallingDepartmentofGeography,UniversityofExeter,UK
ProfessorI.WhiteCentreforResourceandEnvironmentalStudies,AustralianNationalUniversity,Canberra,Australia
TITLES IN PRINT IN THE SERIES
M. Bonnell, M.M. Hufschmidt and J.S. Gladwell Hydrology and Water Management in the Humid Tropics: Hydrological
ResearchIssuesandStrategiesforWaterManagement
Z.W.KundzewiczNewUncertaintyConceptsinHydrologyandWaterResources
R.A.FeddesSpaceandTimeScaleVariabilityandInterdependenciesinHydrologicalProcesses
J. Gibbert, J. Mathieu and F. Fournier Groundwater/Surface Water Ecotones: Biological and Hydrological Interactions
andManagementOptions
G.DaganandS.NeumanSubsurfaceFlowandTransport:AStochasticApproach
J.C.vanDamImpactsofClimateChangeandClimateVariabilityonHydrologicalRegimes
J.J.BogardiandZ.W.KundzewiczRisk,Reliability,Uncertainty,andRobustnessofWaterResourcesSystems
G.KaserandH.OsmastonTropicalGlaciers
I.A.ShiklomanovandJ.C.RoddaWorldWaterResourcesattheBeginningoftheTwenty-FirstCentury
A.S.IssarClimateChangesduringtheHoloceneandtheirImpactonHydrologicalSystems
M.BonnellandL.A.BruijnzeelForests,WaterandPeopleintheHumidTropics:Past,PresentandFutureHydrologicalResearch
forIntegratedLandandWaterManagement
F.GhassemiandI.WhiteInter-BasinWaterTransfer:CaseStudiesfromAustralia,UnitedStates,Canada,ChinaandIndia
K.D.W.NandalalandJ.J.BogardiDynamicProgrammingBasedOperationofReservoirs:ApplicabilityandLimits
Dynamic Programming Based Operation
of Reservoirs
Applicability and Limits
K. D. W. Nandalal
UniversityofPeradeniya,SriLanka
Janos J. Bogardi
UnitedNationsUniversity,Bonn,Germany
CAMBRIDGEUNIVERSITY PRESS
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Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
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© UNESCO 2007
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of
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without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2007
ISBN-13 978-0-511-28537-0 eBook (EBL)
ISBN-10 0-511-28537-X eBook (EBL)
ISBN-13 978-0-521-87408-3 hardback
ISBN-10 0-521-87408-4 hardback
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Contents
Listoffigures pagevi 4 Optimalreservoiroperationforwaterquality 59
Listoftables viii 4.1 IDPbasedmodelsinreservoiroperation
Preface xi forquality 60
4.2 TheJarrehReservoirinIran 63
1 Waterresourcesmanagement 1 4.3 ApplicationofthemodelstotheJarreh
1.1 General 1 Reservoir 65
1.2 Roleofreservoirs 2
5 Large-scalereservoirsystemoperation 73
1.3 Optimalreservoiroperation 3
5.1 Useofdynamicprogramminginmultiple-
1.4 Conventionaldynamicprogramming 4
reservoiroperation 73
1.5 Incrementaldynamicprogramming 4
5.2 Decompositionmethod 78
1.6 Stochasticdynamicprogramming 6
5.3 Compositereservoirmodelformulation 94
1.7 Dynamicprogramminginreservoir
5.4 Implicitstochasticdynamicprogramming
operations 9
analysis 103
1.8 Developmentsindynamicprogramming 13
5.5 Disaggregation/aggregationtechniquesbased
2 Incrementaldynamicprogramminginoptimal ondynamicprogramming 106
reservoiroperation 16
6 Optimalreservoiroperationforfloodcontrol 110
2.1 IDPinoptimalreservoiroperation:
6.1 FeitsuiReservoirProjectinTaiwan 110
singlereservoir 16
6.2 Operationalmodeswitchsystembetween
2.2 IDPinoptimalreservoiroperation:
long-termandshort-termoperation 112
multiple-reservoirsystem 23
6.3 DevelopmentofSDPmodelforlong-term
3 Stochasticdynamicprogramminginoptimal operation 112
reservoiroperation 31 6.4 Operationalmodeswitchsystem 118
3.1 SDPinoptimalreservoiroperation: 6.5 Applicationandsensitivityanalysis 121
singlereservoir 31 6.6 Someremarksonoperationalmodeswitch
3.2 SDPinoptimalreservoiroperation: system 123
multiple-reservoirsystem 32
3.3 Somealgorithmicaspectsofstochastic References 125
dynamicprogramming 38 Index 129
v
Figures
1.1 Basicstructureofdynamicprogramming page4 3.5 Numberofinflow,storage,andreleasestate
1.2 Incrementaldynamicprogramming spacediscretizations 44
optimizationprocedure 5 3.6 Graphicalillustrationofthethree-dimensional
1.3 ConstructionofthecorridorforIDP 5 (Markov-II)transitionprobabilities 50
1.4 Flowdiagramforthestochasticdynamic 3.7 Graphicalillustrationofthetwo-dimensional
programmingmodel 8 (Markov-I)transitionprobabilities 50
2.1 KaribaReservoirandZambeziRiverbasin 17 3.8 Graphicalillustrationoftheone-dimensional
2.2 CharacteristiccurvesoftheKaribaReservoir 18 (independence)transitionprobabilities 51
2.3 RulecurveoftheKaribaReservoir 18 4.1 Systemconfiguration:OptimizationModel1 60
2.4 Single-reservoirconfiguration 18 4.2 Systemconfiguration:OptimizationModel2 61
2.5 RateofconvergenceinIDPforinitialhalf 4.3 TheShapur–Dalakibasin 64
widthof1000(cid:2)106m3 19 4.4 CharacteristiccurvesoftheJarrehReservoir 65
2.6 Optimaloperationstomaximizeenergy 4.5 Riverdischargesandsalinities:1975–89 67
generationoftheKaribaReservoirbyIDP 19 4.6 Reservoirsalinity:comparisonofIDPoptimum
2.7 UbolRatanaReservoirsystem 21 operationwithstandardreleasepolicy 68
2.8 CharacteristiccurvesoftheUbolRatana 4.7 Monthlyaveragereleasesalinity:comparison
Reservoir 22 ofIDPoptimumoperationwithstandard
2.9 RulecurveoftheUbolRatanaReservoir 22 releasepolicy 68
2.10 Optimaloperationpoliciestomaximizeenergy 4.8 Monthlyaveragereleasesalinity:effectof
generationoftheUbolRatanaReservoir 23 includingqualityconsiderationsinthe
2.11 SchematicdiagramoftheMahawelisystem 24 optimizationmodel 70
2.12 Systemconfiguration:Victoria,Randenigala, 4.9 Objectivefunctionvaluefordifferentallowable
Rantembesubsystem 26 diversionlimits 70
2.13 Corridorpointsfortwo-reservoircase 27 4.10 Monthlyaveragereleasesalinity:comparison
2.14 Incrementaldynamicprogrammingprocedure 28 ofmodels 71
2.15 EffectofinitialcorridorwidthinIDP 29 4.11 Monthlyaveragereleasesalinity:comparison
2.16 Rateofconvergencefordifferentinitial ofcut-offlevelwithOptimizationModel2 72
corridorwidthsinIDPprocedure 29 5.1 Tuniswatersupplysystem 79
2.17 EffectofinitialtrialtrajectoryinIDP 5.2 Seven-reservoirTunissystem 80
procedure 29 5.3 Sequentialdownstream-movingdecomposition
2.18 Rateofconvergencefordifferentinitialtrial flowchartandTunissystem 83
trajectoriesinIDPprocedure 29 5.4 Iterativedownstream-movingdecomposition
3.1 SystemconfigurationforSDPmodel: flowchartandTunissystem 85
singlereservoir 32 5.5 Iterativeup-and-downstream-moving
3.2 Graphicaldisplayoftheindicesusedinthe decompositionflowchart 87
SDPmodeldescription 32 5.6 Iterativeup-and-downstream-moving
3.3 SystemconfigurationforSDPmodel:multiple- decompositionoftheTunissystem 88
reservoirsystem 32 5.7 Generalstructureoftheiterativeoptimization
3.4 SDPFlowdiagramfortwo-reservoircase 35 model 94
vi
LIST OF FIGURES vii
5.8 Compositerepresentationofaseriallylinked 6.2 Schematicrepresentationoftheoperational
two-reservoirsystem 96 modeswitchsystem 112
5.9 CalibrationofCaledoniaþKotmale(CþK) 6.3 FlowchartoftheOMSmodelforon-line
compositereservoir 97 reservoiroperation 113
5.10 CalibrationofVictoriaþRandenigala(VþR) 6.4 RelationshipbetweenvariablesofSDP 114
compositereservoir 98 6.5 Blockdiagramofoperationalmodeswitch 118
5.11 CalibrationofBowatennaþMoragahakanda 6.6 Classificationoftyphoons 121
(BþM)compositereservoir 98 6.7 Utilityfunctions 122
5.12 Realandcompositeconfigurations 6.8 SwitchprocessduringTyphoonNelson
ofthemacrosystem 99 (August21–23,1985) 122
5.13 MonthlydiversionsatPolgollabasedonthe 6.9 ReservoirreleaseduringTyphoonNelson 122
three-composite-reservoirIDPmodel 102 6.10 VariationofstorageduringTyphoonNelson 123
5.14 Polgolladiversionpolicyprespecifiedforthe 6.11 Sensitivityanalysisofswitchwithinitial
sensitivityanalysis 102 storage406(cid:2)106m3duringTyphoonNelson 123
5.15 SchematicdiagramofVictoria–Randenigala– 6.12 Variationofstoragewiththeinitial
Rantembereservoirsubsystem 104 storageof406(cid:2)106m3duringTyphoon
6.1 TheHsintienRiverbasin 111 Nelson 123
Tables
2.1 SalientfeaturesoftheKaribadam,reservoir, 3.13 Summaryofthethreecomputerexperiments 45
andpowerhouse page17 3.14 DerivedSDPbasedpolicytablesfortheKariba
2.2 Effectofinitialcorridorwidth:Kariba Reservoir(May) 47
Reservoir 19 3.15 Simulatedaverageannualperformance
2.3 Maximumenergygeneration:Kariba (Experiment1) 48
Reservoir 19 3.16 Simulatedaverageannualperformance
2.4 SalientfeaturesoftheUbolRatanadam, (Experiment2) 48
reservoir,andpowerhouse 20 3.17 Simulatedaverageannualperformance
2.5 Effectofinitialcorridorwidth:UbolRatana (Experiment3) 48
Reservoir 22 3.18 Serialcorrelationcoefficientsofthethreecase
2.6 Maximumenergygeneration:UbolRatana studysystems 52
Reservoir 23 3.19 Keypointsofthedesignofexperiments 53
2.7 Principalfeaturesoftheexistingandproposed 3.20 Simulatedaverageannualperformance
reservoirs/powerplants 25 (ExperimentA) 53
2.8 EffectofinitialcorridorwidthinIDP 27 3.21 Simulatedaverageannualperformance
2.9 EffectofinitialtrialtrajectoryinIDP 29 (ExperimentB) 54
3.1 OperationalperformanceoftheKaribaReservoir 32 3.22 Simulatedaverageannualperformance
3.2 SDPbasedoperationpolicyfortheVictoria (ExperimentC) 56
andRandenigalaReservoirsforthemonth 3.23 Simulatedaverageannualperformance
ofOctober 36 (ExperimentD) 57
3.3 Inflowclassdiscretizationoftheoperation 3.24 Simulatedperformance(ExperimentE) 58
policyofTable3.2 37 4.1 Monthlyirrigationdemands(for13000ha) 65
3.4 Storageclassesoftheoperationpolicy 4.2 SalientfeaturesoftheJarrehdam
ofTable3.2 37 andreservoir 66
3.5 Simulationresultsofthe 4.3 Comparisonofdifferentobjectivefunctions 67
Victoria–Randenigala–Rantembereservoir 4.4 ComparisonofIDPoptimumoperationwith
subsystemaccordingtoSDPbasedpolicies 38 simulation 68
3.6 SDPmodelsetupsfortheMahaweliand 4.5 ReleasesofIDPoptimization 69
Karibareservoirsystems 40 4.6 Comparisonoftwooptimizations:effect
3.7 ExampleofmodificationsoftheMarkov ofinclusionofquality 70
inflowtransitionprobabilitiesoftheKariba 4.7 Effectofallowablemaximumdiversion 70
Reservoir 40 4.8 Comparisonofoptimumdiversionswith
3.8 OperationalperformanceoftheKariba cut-offleveldiversions 71
Reservoir 41 5.1 Reservoircapacitiesandtheassociated
3.9 OperationalperformanceoftheMahawelisystem 42 demandtargets 78
3.10 Exampleofthesmoothingmethod 43 5.2 Reservoirmeanmonthlyincrementalinflows
3.11 Simulatedperformanceaftersmoothing 43 (period1946–89)(106m3/month) 79
3.12 MultipleregressionanalysisoftheKariba 5.3 Basicstatisticsoftheannualinflows
Reservoirinflow(Budhakooncharoen,1986) 45 forthesevenreservoirs(period1946–89) 80
viii