Dynamic Analysis of weather and climate : atmospheric circulation, perturbations, climatic evolution

461 Pages·2010·49.037 MB·English

by  Marcel Leroux

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF
WEATHER AND CLIMATE
— Atmospheric Circulation,
— Perturbations, Climatic Evolution
Marcel Leroux
The debate about 'global warming', 'climate change' and
other environmental issues shows no sign of abating. In this
updated and comprehensive second edition, the late Marcel
Leroux challenges some of the 'scientific evidence' for global
warming and shows how meteorology and climatology are
natural sciences that rely on direct observation of phenomena.
Through reconstructing thegeometry of atmospheric circulation,
he demonstrates that very little is owed to hazard or chaos -
there is no 'unruly climate' but intensity shifts of the sum of
weather patterns that constitute the climate - and he debunks
the artificial separation between meteorology and climatology.
In particular, he shows that solid observation provides more
concrete results than abstract, computer-based predictions.
Dynamic Analysis of Weather and Climate
• offers a perspective for the future of meteorology and climatology;
• makes clear how the Mobile Polar High (MPH) concept excels at
explaining the meteorological facts and observations;
• puts a meaningful and verifiable perspective on the future
evolution of the climate;
• is fully illustrated with new figures and satellite images to give a
better understanding of the concepts;
• gives the most up-to-date, complete synthesis of the late author's
research into weather and climate.
ISBN: 978-3-642-04679-7
springer.com
www.praxis-publishing.co.uk

Marcel Leroux
Dynamic Analysis
of Weather
and Climate
Atmospheric Circulation, Perturbations,
Climatic Evolution
(Second Edition)
Published in association with
Praxis Publishing
Springer
Chichester. UK
Professor Marcel Leroux (deceased)
Formerly Laboratoire de Climatologie, Risques et Environnement (LCRE)
Lyon
France
SPRINGER-PRAXIS BOOKS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
SUBJECT ADVISORY EDITOR: John Mason, M.B.E., B.Sc., M.Sc., Ph.D.
ISBN 978-3-642-04679-7
Springer is part of Springer-Science + Business Media (springer.com)
Library of Congress Control Number: 2009936869
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or
review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may
only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior
permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction m
accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries
concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers.
© Praxis Publishing Ltd, Chichester, UK, 2010
Based on the French second edition
Published by Masson, Editeur, Paris © 2004
First English language edition published 1998
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
Translator: Bob Mizon, 38 The Vineries, Colehill, Wimborne, Dorset, UK
Project translation editor: Dr Marc Villeger
Project copy editor: Rachael Wilkie
Cover design: Jim Wilkie
Typesetting: Aarontype Limited
Printed in Germany on acid-free paper
Contents
Preface.......................................................................................................................... xi
Acknowledgements.................................................................................................... xiii
Foreword.........................................................................................................................xv
Foreword to the English second edition.....................................................................xvii
Introduction: Perceptions of Weather and Climate and the Approach
of this Volume..............................................................................................................xxv
Meteorology and/or climatology?.............................................................................xxv
Perceptions of reality: schools of thought............................................................ xxvi
Inadequacies in schools of thought, and associated problems...............................xxx
The conceptual impasse........................................................................................ xxxi
The approach of this book................................................................................. xxxiii
PART I
GENERAL CIRCULATION IN THE TROPOSPHERE................................. 1
1 Radiation................................................................................................................. 3
1.1 Processes of radiation................................................................................ 3
1.2 The shape and motions of the Earth........................................................... 7
1.3 Greenhouse effect, water effect................................................................... 8
1.4 The geographical factor.................................................................................12
1.5 Conclusion.......................................................................................................13
Circulation in the lower layers of the troposphere.......................................................14
vi Contents
2 Circulation in high and mid-latitudes: MPHs..................................................... 17
2.1 Perception of circulation in high and mid-latitudes............................... 17
2.2 The existence of mobile anticyclones....................................................... 20
2.3 Mobile Polar Anticyclones (Mobile Polar Highs (MPHs))................... 22
2.4 The polar thermal deficit............................................................................ 27
2.5 The birth of MPHs...................................................................................... 29
2.6 MPH trajectories........................................................................................ 30
2.7 The MPH-associated wind field................................................................. 41
3 Anticyclonic agglutinations.................................................................................... 45
3.1 A look at the so-called ‘subtropical’ high-pressure areas...................... 45
3.2 Meridional transport by MPHs and the formation of an..........................
anticyclonic agglutination (AA)................................................................. 48
3.2.1 The role of relief............................................................................ 48
3.2.2 The formation of an anticyclonic agglutination.......................... 53
3.3 Oceanic anticyclonic agglutinations......................................................... 55
3.3.1 Seasonal migration.......................................................................... 56
3.3.2 Migration in latitude..................................................................... 56
3.3.3 Migration in longitude................................................................... 56
3.4 Seasonal and/or temporary anticyclonic agglutinations in
mid-latitudes................................................................................................ 57
3.4.1 Winter anticyclonic agglutinations................................................ 58
The ‘Siberian’ anticyclone.............................................................. 58
Duration of agglutinations............................................................ 60
3.4.2 Summer anticyclonic agglutinations............................................. 63
High pressure over the Mediterranean......................................... 63
The heatwave and drought of summer 2003 in
Western Europe............................................................................... 64
The floods and the heatwave of summer 2007 .......................... 68
3.5 Conclusion.................................................................................................... 70
4 Tropical circulation................................................................................................ 73
4.1 A look at tropical circulation................................................................... 73
4.2 Pressure and wind fields over the tropics................................................ 74
Trade circulation........................................................................................ 75
Monsoon circulation.................................................................................... 76
4.3 The trade wind............................................................................................. 78
4.4 The trades.................................................................................................... 81
4.5 The monsoon................................................................................................ 84
4.6 Monsoons.................................................................................................... 87
Circulation in the lower layers: conclusion...................................................................91
5 General circulation............................................................................................... 93
5.1 General circulation: the evolution of ideas.............................................. 94
5.1.1 The birth of the tri-cellular model of circulation........................ 95
5.1.2 Improvements on the tri-cellular model of circulation.............. 96
Contents vii
5.2 Insufficiencies in the representation of circulation...................................97
5.3 Units of circulation in the lower layers.......................................................99
5.3.1 The northern meteorological hemisphere.......................................101
5.3.2 The southern meteorological hemisphere.......................................102
5.3.3 Dynamical unity and climatic diversity.........................................103
5.3.4 Fundamental questions...................................................................104
5.4 General circulation in the troposphere........................................................105
5.4.1 The mean tropospheric picture........................................................105
5.4.2 Seasonal variation in circulation.....................................................109
5.4.3 Partitioning and stratification in circulation..................................Ill
5.5 Conclusion: general circulation is perfectly organised.............................115
PART II
DYNAMICS OF THE WEATHER: DISTURBANCES....................................117
6 Pluviogenesis............................................................................................................119
6.1 Precipitable water.........................................................................................119
6.2 Origin of an updraft....................................................................................121
6.2.1 The thermal factor...........................................................................122
6.2.2 The dynamical factor........................................................................123
6.3 Structural conditions....................................................................................125
6.4 Conclusion.....................................................................................................126
7 Dynamics of weather in polar and temperate regions: MPHs...........................129
7.1 Perception of the ‘disturbed field’ in high and mid-latitudes.................129
7.1.1 The (impossible) control from above of phenomena
lower down.........................................................................................130
7.1.2 The FASTEX (Non-) Experiment...................................................132
7.2 The MPH, the low-pressure corridor and the‘cyclone’...........................136
7.2.1 Organisation of the pressure and wind fields................................137
7.2.2 The relationship between the MPH and the
low-pressure area.............................................................................139
7.2.3 Wind field above an MPH...............................................................143
7.2.4 MPHs and the ‘polar front’............................................................145
7.3 Weather associated with an MPH...............................................................145
7.4 Interactions between MPHs........................................................................148
7.5 Dynamics of weather in North America...................................................151
7.5.1 The west coast..................................................................................154
7.5.2 East of the Rockies...........................................................................155
7.6 Dynamics of weather in France.................................................................159
7.6.1 Relief and MPHs.............................................................................159
7.6.2 Winter dynamics...............................................................................162
7.6.3 Summer dynamics.............................................................................164
7.7 Dynamics of weather in temperate and polar regions: conclusion ... 169
viii Contents
8 MPHs at tropical margins............................................................................... 171
8.1 The temperate-tropical boundary......................................................... 171
8.2 North and Central America................................................................... 174
8.2.1 West of the Rockies................................................................... 174
8.2.2 East of the Rockies..................................................................... 175
8.3 South America........................................................................................ 177
8.3.1 West of the Andes..................................................................... 177
8.3.2 East of the Andes........................................................................ 178
8.4 The Mediterranean, North Africa, Arabia and the Indian Ocean . . 180
8.4.1 The Mediterranean..................................................................... 180
8.4.2 The Atlantic coastal area............................................................ 181
8.4.3 North Africa............................................................................... 182
8.4.4 Arabia, Indian Ocean................................................................ 185
8.5 Southern Africa...................................................................................... 186
8.5.1 The southern coastal area......................................................... 186
8.5.2 The Indian Ocean coastal area.................................................. 187
8.6 Eastern Asia............•................................................................................ 188
8.7 Australia.................................................................................................. 190
8.7.1 “Migratory anticyclones”......................................................... 190
8.7.2 The southern coastal area......................................................... 192
8.8 Conclusion............................................................................................... 193
9 Pulses in trades and monsoons........................................................................ 195
9.1 Trade winds and ‘easterly waves’......................................................... 195
9.2 The vertical structure of the trades....................................................... 197
9.3 Pulses in the maritime trades................................................................. 198
9.4 Pulses in the continental trades............................................................ 204
9.5 Pulses in the monsoon............................................................................ 206
9.6 Conclusion............................................................................................... 208
10 The meteorological equator............................................................................ 209
10.1 The meteorological equator: the evolution of a concept................. 209
10.2 The inclined meteorological equator (IME)...................................... 213
10.2.1 The vertical structure of the IME......................................... 213
10.2.2 IME activity: squall lines (SL)............................................. 214
10.2.3 The active inclined meteorological equator........................ 219
10.3 The vertical meteorological equator (VME)...................................... 221
10.3.1 The VME over the oceans..................................................... 221
10.3.2 The ME over continents: IME and VME.......................... 223
10.4 Conclusion............................................................................................. 225
11 Tropical cyclones............................................................................................. 227
11.1 Cyclone structure and associated weather.......................................... 227
11.2 Conditions for cyclogenesis................................................................. 229
11.3 The trajectories of cyclones................................................................. 234
Contents ix
11.4 The geography of tropical cyclones......................................................238
11.4.1 The northern hemisphere..........................................................238
11.4.2 The southern hemisphere..........................................................243
11.5 Conclusion................................................................................................245
PART III
DYNAMICS OF CLIMATE: CLIMATIC EVOLUTION
THE “GLOBAL CLIMATIC SYSTEM”..............................................................247
12 Causes of climatic variations...............................................................................251
12.1 Orbital parameters of radiation..............................................................251
12.1.1 Variation of the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit.....................252
12.1.2 Variation of the angle of inclination of the Earth’s
polar axis....................................................................................253
12.1.3 Variation of the orientation of the polar axis........................255
12.1.4 Orbital parameters and climatic evolution.............................256
12.2 Variations in solar activity.....................................................................257
12.2.1 The sunspot cycle........................................................................257
12.2.2 Solar activity and climate.........................................................257
12.2.3 New approaches..........................................................................261
12.3 Volcanism and climate............................................................................263
12.3.1 Volcanic emissions and ejecta: silicates and sulphates .... 263
12.3.2 Optical and radiative effects.....................................................267
12.3.3 Varying, deferred and non-uniform thermal effects..............268
12.3.4 Climatic impact..........................................................................270
12.3.5 Volcanism: conclusion..............................................................272
12.4 The global warming myth........................ 273
12.4.1 Birth of a myth..........................................................................273
12.4.2 The reliability of estimates of the concentration of CO2 . . 275
12.4.3 Models and ‘global’ warming..................................................278
12.4.4 How representative is the ‘global’ thermal curve?.................280
12.4.5 Thermal evolution at the poles................................................285
12.5 Conclusion on the causes of climatic variations..................................292
13 Palaeoclimatic variations and modes of general circulation.............................293
13.1 Palaeoenvironments in Africa.................................................................293
13.1.1 Present-day dynamics of climate in Africa.............................295
13.1.2 The palaeoenvironment of Africa at the time of the Last
Glacial Maximum (18-15 kyr BP)...........................................298
13.1.3 The palaeoenvironment of Africa at the time of the
Holocene Climatic Optimum (9-6 kyr BP).............................303
13.1.4 Palaeometeorological interpretation.........................................308