DTIC ADA564922: Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe

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Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around
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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the
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D
e
Daunting challenges lie ahead for Arab countries where revolutions upended
m
longstanding authoritarian regimes in 2011. These unexpected events created
o
new uncertainties in a troubled region: Would the Arab Spring lead to a c
flowering of democracy? Would loosening of the political systems in these r
a
countries unleash dangerous forces of extremism or ethno-sectarian conflict?
t
i
Would new autocrats replace the old ones? Through a comparative analysis z
a
of past democratization experiences throughout the world over nearly four
t
decades and a comprehensive look at recent uprisings in the Arab world, i
o
Democratization in the Arab World aims to help policymakers understand n
the challenges ahead, form well-founded expectations, shape diplomatic
i
approaches, and take practical steps to foster positive change. The monograph n

explores the conditions and decisions that are most likely to influence whether t
h
democratization succeeds in Arab countries undergoing political transitions.
e
It identifies the main challenges to democratization in these countries;
A
analyzes how countries in Europe, Latin America, Asia, and Africa have dealt
r
with similar challenges in the past; and suggests what the United States a
and broader international community can do to help strengthen fledgling b
democracies in the Arab world.
W
“Democratization in the Arab World is both a valuable contribution to the literature o
on transition and an essential guide for understanding the Arab Spring. While fully r
l
recognizing the immense challenges that lie ahead, it argues convincingly for a policy of d
Democratization in
sustained yet prudent support for the process of democratic transformation that is now
only beginning to unfold.”
—Carl Gershman,
President of the National Endowment for Democracy
the Arab World
“Democratization in the Arab World is an excellent book that fills a need for concise
profiles of democratic transitions and the lessons that can be drawn from them. It
breaks new ground in very deliberately, thoughtfully, and parsimoniously applying
the lessons of theory and experience to the transition processes underway in the Arab
world. This book has both academic integrity and great practical value.” Prospects and Lessons from
M
—Larry Diamond,
Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, ill Around the Globe
and founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy e
r

e
t

a
l. Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini, F. Stephen Larrabee,
CORPORATION EOFBFJEECCTTIVIVEE SAONLAULTYIOSINS.S. Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie E. Taylor,
$44.95
Tewodaj Mengistu
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Democratization in
the Arab World
Prospects and Lessons from
Around the Globe
Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini, F. Stephen Larrabee,
Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie E. Taylor,
Tewodaj Mengistu
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
This monograph results from the RAND Corporation’s continuing
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in part, by donors and by the independent research and development
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Democratization in the Arab world : prospects and lessons from around the globe /
Laurel E. Miller ... [et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-7207-8 (pbk. : alk. paper)r)
1. Democratization —Arab countries. 2. Democracy—Arab countries. 3. Arab
countries—Politics and government. I. Miller, Laurel (Laurel E.)
JQ1850.A91D47 2012
320.917'4927—dc23
2012028225
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Cover: An Egyptian election official counts the ballots following the presidential election in
Cairo, May 24, 2012 (AP Photo/Fredrik Persson).
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Preface
The hopes and drama of the Arab Spring captured the world’s attention
early in 2011. As events unfolded during that year and into 2012, it
quickly became clear that daunting challenges lie ahead for postrevolu-
tionary Egypt and Tunisia and for other Arab countries that might also
experience regime change. In this volume, we explore the conditions
and decisions that are most likely to influence the success of democra-
tization in countries undergoing political transitions. We identify the
main challenges to democratization in the Arab world; analyze how
other countries around the world that transitioned from autocracies
have overcome or failed to overcome similar challenges; and suggest
what the United States and the broader international community can
do to help transitioning countries strengthen their fledgling democra-
cies. The results are intended to be useful to policymakers seeking to
understand the challenges ahead, shape diplomatic approaches to the
region, and take practical steps to foster positive change.
This study is a product of the RAND Corporation’s continu-
ing program of self-initiated independent research. Support for such
research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research
and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of
its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and devel-
opment centers. This research was conducted within the International
Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense
Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center
sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff,
iii
iv Democratization in the Arab World
the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the
defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
For more information on the International Security and Defense
Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or
contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page).
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures ............................................................................. xi
Tables .............................................................................xiii
Summary ..........................................................................xv
Acknowledgments .............................................................. liii
Abbreviations ..................................................................... lv
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
Parameters of the Study ........................................................... 3
Structure of This Volume ......................................................... 5
PART I: CONCEPTS AND CONTEXT
CHAPTER TWO
Democratization and Democracy Promotion: Trends, Theories,
and Practices .................................................................. 9
Democracy in the World Since 1973 ............................................ 9
Measuring Democracy ...........................................................13
Theories and Debates on Why Democratization Succeeds or Fails .........15
Crafting Democratic Institutions: Electoral and Constitutional
Design Choices .............................................................. 22
Democratization Assistance: What Do We Know About
What Works? ................................................................ 27
v