DTIC ADA493971: Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter

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Nuclear Heuristics:
Selected Writings of
Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter
Robert Zarate
Henry Sokolski
Editors
IMHI
20090210123
1
Commentaries by
Henry S. Rowen
Alain C. Enthoven
Richard Perle
Stephen J. Lukasik &
Andrew W. Marshall
Cover Photo Courtesy of Marianne Atkinson. © 1991
NUCLEAR HEURISTICS:
SELECTED WRITINGS OF
ALBERT AND ROBERTA WOHLSTETTER
Robert Zarate
Henry Sokolski
Editors
January 2009
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined
in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the
public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States
Code, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted.
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors
and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the
Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S.
Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution
is unlimited.
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should
be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army
War College, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244.
All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications are available
on the SSI homepage for electronic dissemination. Hard copies
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The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail
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ISBN 1-58487-370-1
II
CONTENTS
Preface
Henry Sokolski vii
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction
Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter on Nuclear-Age Strategy
Robert Zarate 1
I. Analysis and Design of Strategic Policy 91
Commentary: How He Worked
Henry S. Rowen 93
Theory and Opposed-Systems Design (1968)
Albert Wohlstetter 123
II. Nuclear Deterrence 165
Commentary: On Nuclear Deterrence
Alain C. Enthoven 167
The Delicate Balance of Terror (1958)
Albert Wohlstetter 177
Excerpts on "Missile Gap" from General Comments on
Senator Kennedy's National Security Speeches
(circa 1960)
Albert Wohlstetter 213
On the Genesis of Nuclear Strategy: Letter to Michael
Howard (1968)
Albert Wohlstetter 217
III. Nuclear Proliferation 255
Commentary: Timely Warnings Still - The Wohlstetters
and Nuclear Proliferation
Henry Sokolski 257
Nuclear Sharing: NATO and theN+1 Country (1961)
Albert Wohlstetter 268
Spreading the Bomb without Quite Breaking the Rules
(1976)
Albert Wohlstetter 301
The Buddha Smiles: U.S. Peaceful Aid
and the Indian Bomb (1978)
Roberta Wohlstetter 339
Signals, Noise and Article IV (1979)
Albert Wohlstetter, Gregory S. Jones
and Roberta Wohlstetter 357
Nuclear Triggers and Safety Catches, the "FSU" and the
"FSRs" (1992)
Albert Wohlstetter 374
IV. Arms Race Myths vs. Strategic Competition's
Reality 379
Commentary: Arms Race Myths vs.
Strategic Competition's Reality
Richard Perle 381
The Case for Strategic Force Defense (1969)
Albert Wohlstetter 389
Racing Forward? Or Ambling Back? (1976)
Albert Wohlstetter 414
IV
On Arms Control: Wlmt We Should Look for
in an Arms Agreement (1985)
Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter 472
Arms Control That Could Work (1985)
Albert Wohlstetter and Brian G. Chow 501
V. Towards Discriminate Deterrence 507
Commentary: Towards Discriminate Deterrence
Stephen J. Lukasik 509
Strength, Interest and New Technologies (1968)
Albert Wohlstetter 524
How Much is Enough? How Mad is MAD? (1974)
Albert Wohlstetter 551
Bishops, Statesmen, and Other Strategists
on the Bombing of Innocents (1983)
Albert Wohlstetter 557
Connecting the Elements of the Strategy: Excerpt from
Discriminate Deterrence (1988)
The Commission on Integrated Long
Term Strategy 604
RPM, or Revolutions by the Minute (1992)
Albert Wohlstetter 613
VI. Limiting and Managing New Risks 623
Commentary: Strategy as a Profession in the Future
Security Environment
Andrew W. Marshall 625
End of the Cold War? End of History and All War?
Excerpt from an Outline for a Memoir (1989)
Albert Wohlstetter 637
The Fax Shall Make You Free (1990)
Albert Wohlstetter 639
Tlie Bitter End: Tlie Case for Re-Intervention in Iraq
(1991)
Albert Wohlstetter and Fred S. Hoffman 649
Wliat the West Must Do in Bosnia: An Open Letter
to President Clinton (1993)
Albert Wohlstetter and Margaret Thatcher 661
Boris Yeltsin as Abraham Lincoln? (1995)
Albert Wohlstetter 669
About the Editors and Contributors 677
VI
PREFACE
Three years ago, I received a phone call and then a visit
at my home from a University of Chicago graduate student
eager to learn about Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter. Robert
Zarate interviewed me for nearly 2 hours. It was clear from
the questions that he asked me that his interest in the
Wohlstetters' work was more than casual.
After Robert's initial visit, he called me again several times
to clarify and pursue additional questions. I recommended
other experts who had worked with or studied under the
Wohlstetters for him to interview. Harry Rowen, my former
Defense Department boss, was one. Andrew Marshall,
at the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment, was another.
Both had worked closely with Albert and Roberta at RAND.
Later, Harry and I contacted Joan Wohlstetter, Albert and
Roberta's daughter, and persuaded her to make her parents'
private papers at the Hoover Institution's archives available
to Robert. These papers are now open to the public, and
some of them are included in this edited volume. Robert's
visits to Washington multiplied as he interviewed more of
Albert's former proteges, as well as his critics.
In 2006,1 asked Robert if he would be willing to help out
at my nonprofit research organization, the Nonproliferation
Policy Education Center (NPEC). He immediately agreed
and assumed responsibility for completing research that
had already been begun by Paul Lettow on the meaning
of "nuclear energy for peaceful purposes" in the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty. Although Robert was planning
to write a comprehensive biography of Albert Wohlstetter,
I encouraged him instead to publish short pieces on the
Wohlstetters. His success here led to the next suggestion: an
edited volume of Albert and Roberta's key writings relating
to nuclear proliferation and national security affairs, with
commentaries by the Wohlstetters' colleagues and students.
I worked with him to develop a grant proposal.
Vll