DTIC ADA477066: Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options

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Portfolio-Analysis
Methods for Assessing
Capability Options
Paul K. Davis, Russell D. Shaver, Justin Beck
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the
Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND
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Preface
This monograph presents a framework, methods, and tools to support
capabilities analysis and related tradeoff work within the Department
of Defense and the military Services. The monograph deals with choice
and risk.
Some parts of the monograph are written for decisionmakers.
These sections recommend and illustrate principles on which to base
terms of reference for major capability reviews and organization of sum-
mary presentations. Other parts are more technical and are intended
for readers who oversee or conduct capability evaluations in depth.
The monograph in its entirety should also be of interest to researchers
interested in theory, practice, and technology for supporting high-level
decisionmaking.
The research reported here was sponsored primarily by Kenneth
Krieg, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and
Logistics (USD (AT&L)), and by James Raleigh Durham, Director
of Joint Advanced Concepts in the Office of the Secretary of Defense
(OSD (AT&L)). Most of the study was completed in 2006 and early
2007. The research began late in 2005 in response to an earlier request
by Michael Wynne, then acting USD (AT&L), for a generic analytic
framework to be used in capability-area reviews. The monograph also
reflects earlier research, tool-development, and analysis done for the
Missile Defense Agency (MDA) under the sponsorship of David Alt-
wegg, MDA’s Deputy for Agency Operations.
Questions and comments are welcome and should be addressed
to the senior author, Paul K. Davis. He can be reached at the RAND
iii
iv Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options
Corporation in Santa Monica, California (telephone: [phone];
email: [email protected]).
This research was conducted within the Acquisition and Technol-
ogy Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute,
a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the
Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Com-
batant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps,
the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For
more information, please contact the Center Director, Philip Antón, at
RAND in Santa Monica (telephone: [phone], ext. 7798; email:
[email protected]).
Contents
Preface............................................................................. iii
Figures............................................................................. ix
Tables .............................................................................. xi
Summary.........................................................................xiii
Acknowledgments.............................................................xxxi
Abbreviations and Acronyms..............................................xxxiii
Glossary of Terminology.................................................. xxxvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction....................................................................... 1
Objectives........................................................................... 1
Structure of This Monograph..................................................... 2
CHAPTER TWO
Background: The Capabilities-Development Process...................... 3
Context: DoD’s Capabilities-Development Process............................ 3
Problems with the Current Process.............................................. 3
Historical Successes in Capability Development............................... 7
Past Recommendations and Recent Changes..................................12
Past Recommendations for Change ..........................................12
A Recent Change: Concept Decision Reviews..............................13
CHAPTER THREE
A Framework and a Generic Terms of Reference ..........................17
What Should a Capability-Area Review Accomplish?........................17
Elements of the Generic Analytic Process......................................18
v
vi Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options
Define the Capability Area and Related Missions .........................18
Characterize Operational Needs in a Scenario Space......................21
Define CONOPS and Critical Components for Options ................ 27
Generate and Screen Candidate Options....................................29
Evaluate the Options in DIME-Sensitive Portfolio Analysis .............29
Characterize Shortfalls, Opportunities, and Surpluses.................... 30
Add Options: Remedies and Possible Reductions ..........................32
Iterate.............................................................................33
CHAPTER FOUR
Tools to Enable the Framework...............................................35
Systems Engineering, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis, and
Experiments.................................................................. 36
Capability Models................................................................ 36
Generating and Screening Candidate Options............................... 38
Portfolio-Analysis Tools..........................................................39
Tailoring Analysis for Different Contexts..................................... 43
CHAPTER FIVE
ANotional Example: Global Strike..........................................47
Defining Global Strike ..........................................................47
Key Attributes ..................................................................47
Historical Examples............................................................49
Timeliness Requirements......................................................49
Defining a Parameterized Scenario Space for Global Strike.................51
Timeliness, Target Character, and Number of Weapons..................52
A Scenario Set That Stresses All Key Factors................................55
Defining CONOPS and Critical Components for Global Strike...........63
Critical Components of Capability...........................................63
Concepts of Operations....................................................... 64
Identifying, Evaluating, and Comparing Global Strike Options...........65
The Options Themselves.......................................................65
Finding Candidate Options for a Fuller Analysis...........................70
Framework for Portfolio Analysis............................................ 77
Summary (Notional) Results for Effectiveness............................. 77
Zooming (Drilling Down) for Explanation................................ 80
Contents vii
Zooming to a Level of Systems Analysis.....................................83
A Final Example of Zooming.................................................85
Summary Results for Cost-Effectiveness Comparisons...................... 87
Finding Tradeoffs and Bill-Payers Within a Capability Area............. 90
Treatment of Risk...............................................................91
Types of Risk................................................................... 92
Aggregation of Risks .......................................................... 97
Illustrative Conclusions for Global Strike..................................... 98
Investment-Related Conclusions: Cost and Effectiveness................. 98
Seeking Flexibility, Adaptiveness, and Robustness in a Global
Strike ...................................................................... 100
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Approach............................... 102
CHAPTER SIX
A Second Example: Ballistic Missile Defense............................ 105
Defining Ballistic Missile Defense Missions ................................ 105
A Parameterized Scenario Space for BMD................................... 106
Dimensions of the Problem.................................................. 106
A Perspective on Capabilities-Based Planning ............................ 111
CONOPS and Critical Components......................................... 111
Framework for Portfolio Analysis............................................. 113
Top-Level Structure .......................................................... 113
Zooming for Explanation of Summary-Level Results.................... 115
Shortfalls, Opportunities, and Surpluses for the BMD Program......... 116
Identifying, Evaluating, and Comparing BMD Options.................. 116
CHAPTER SEVEN
Conclusions and Next Steps................................................. 121
Conclusions...................................................................... 121
Next Steps........................................................................ 122
Analysis Cutting Across Capability Areas................................. 122
Strategic-Level Portfolio Analysis........................................... 122
Advancing the Science of Exploratory Analysis........................... 123
Tool Refinement .............................................................. 123