DTIC ADA435124: The Casualties Hypothesis: The Influence of News Media Coverage of U.S. Military Deaths on Public Support for Military Operations

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by  Defense Technical Information Center

THE "CASUALTIES HYPOTHESIS:" THE INFLUENCE OF NEWS MEDIA
COVERAGE OF U.S. MILITARY DEATHS ON PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR MILITARY
OPERATIONS
A Thesis
Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for
the Degree Master's of Arts in the
Graduate School of The Ohio State University
By
Thomas David Smith Jr., B.A.
The Ohio State University
2005
Master's Examination Committee
Approved by
Dr. Gerald M. Kosicki, Adviser
Dr. Mathew Nisbet
Adviser
Graduate Program in Journalism and Communication
20050712 138
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS THESIS ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND DO NOT
REFLECT THE OFFICIAL POLICY OR POSITION OF THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE,
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, OR THE U.S. GOVERNMENT.
ABSTRACT
The casualties hypothesis is cited in social science literature as a principle
consideration of U.S. foreign policy decision makers and military planners when faced
with the option of using military force. Its basic premise is the U.S. public will not
tolerate the loss of U.S. lives in military operations. If that were always the case,
however, how was it that President Bush was re-electedb y a comfortable margin after the
U.S. death toll in Iraq exceeded 1,000? Drawing from communication research in
priming and framing, this study employs a content analysis to examine news coverage of
U.S. military deaths in Iraq over a 23 month period. The resulting data are then used in an
analysis of presidential approval ratings and whether the public felt the war was worth it
in an effort to test the influence of media coverage on public opinion. The results indicate
that media coverage of U.S. militaryd eaths in Iraq was predominantly of an episodic and
technical nature and was not significantly correlated with public opinion. Cumulative
deaths in Iraq, however, were correlated with presidential approval and whether the
public felt the war was worth it, lending support to the casualties hypothesis.
Dedicated to Jennifer: For Everything
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I wish to thank Dr. Gerald M. Kosicki, my advisor, for his unending patience,
invaluable council, and continuous encouragement, without which this thesis would not
have been possible.
I also deeply appreciate Dr. Mathew Nisbet for his guidance with the research
topic and methods, and especially for his time and assistance with the more technical
aspects of the study.
I am greatly indebted to Mrs. Jean Gaston for her tremendous assistance with the
initial screening and final coding for the content analysis.
Special thanks to Mrs. Carol Mentzer and Dr. Carl Mentzer for their assistance
with editing and their suggestions for improving the research proposal and design.
And finally, to Colonel Donna L. Pastor for encouraging me to apply for the
funded Master's degree program through the Air Force Institute of Technology, and for
her leadership, support, and advice.
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VITA
1970 . ...................... Born, Columbia, South Carolina
- 995 ............................................ B.A. Communication, M ississippi State
University
1995-2003 .................................... Public Affairs Officer, United States Air Force
FIELDS OF STUDY
Major Field: Journalism and Communication
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract ............................................................................................................................... ii
D edication .......................................................................................................................... iii
Acknowledgm ents ......................................................................................................... iv
V ita ...................................................................................................................................... v
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... vi
List of Tables ................................................................................................................... viii
List of Figures .................................................................................................................... ix
Chapters Page
1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1
2. Review of current literature .................................................................................... 3
2.1 Public opinion and m ilitary operations ............................................................. 3
2.2 Casualties hypothesis ...................................................................................... 4
2.3 Prim ing .......................................................................................................... 7
2.4 Fram ing .......................................................................................................... 8
3. M ethods ..................................................................................................................... 13
3.1 Content analysis ............................................................................................. 14
3.1.1 Sam pling procedures ......................................................................... 15
3.1.2 Coders ............................................................................................. 16
3.1.3 Fram es .............................................................................................. 16
3.1.4 Inter-coder reliability ...................................................................... 18
3.2 Public opinion data ........................................................................................ 18
3.3 U .S. death toll in Iraq ....................................................................................... 22
4. Results ....................................................................................................................... 23
4.1 Content analysis ............................................................................................. 23
4.1.1 Am ount of coverage given U .S. deaths .......................................... 23
4.1.2 Overall coverage ............................................................................. 26
4.1.3 Coverage by m onth ........................................................................ 29
4.1.4 Effects of increasing U.S. deaths on media coverage ...................... 32
4.2 Effects of U.S. Deaths in Iraq on U.S. Public Opinion .................................. 32
4.3 Effects of Media Coverage of U.S. Deaths on Public Opinion ...................... 35
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4.4 Conclusions .................................................................................................... 36
5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 38
5.1 Review of m ajor findings ................................................................................ 38
5.1.1 Strengths and weaknesses of research design .................................. 38
5.1.2 Im plications of findings .................................................................. 41
5.2 Suggestions for future research 443..........................................................................
Appendices
A . News m edia fram es coding sheet and instructions ............................................. 46
Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 52
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LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
3.1 Inter-C oder R eliability ......................................................................................... 18
3.2 Public opinion weighted averages for 2003 ...................................................... 20
3.3 Public opinion weighted averages for 2004 ....................................................... 21
3.4 U .S. M ilitary D eaths in Iraq ................................................................................ 22
4.1 Differences in News Coverage of U.S. Deaths Between News Organizations ...... 28
4.2 Correlations between Cumulative Deaths and Public Opinion Questions .......... 33
4.3 Significant events during time period of analysis ....................... 35
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
4.1 Number of stories about U.S. deaths in Iraq compared to actual number of
de ath s ...................................................................................................................... 24
4.2 Number of stories on U.S. deaths in Iraq compared to total number of stories on
Iraq .......................................................................................................................... 2 5
4.3 Mean Coverage of U.S. Military Deaths in Iraq...................................................... 26
4.4 News Articles versus In-House Editorials ........................................................ 27
4.5 News Reports versus Interviews with other Reporters or Commentators .......... 28
4.6 Episodic versus Thematic Coverage by Month .................................................. 31
4.7 Technical versus Dramatic Coverage by Month ................................................ 31
4.8 Effects of Cumulative Deaths on Presidential Approval Ratings ....................... 34
4.9 Effects of Cumulative Deaths on Public Opinion Regarding the War ............... 34
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