Table Of Content

1993 Annual Report no S»o**J fa» puaüc ^" r6ie< St»»« Lud Institute for Defense Analyses Applying color visualization techniques, researchers atlDA's Supercomputing Research Center seek to enhance computer performance. The three consecutive views shown here represent memory usage in a supercomputer and are used as a tool by researchers to optimize the design of the processor/memory interface. DISCLAIM NOTICE THIS DOCUMENT IS BEST QUALITY AVAILABLE. THE COPY FURNISHED TO DTIC CONTAINED A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF COLOR PAGES WHICH DO NOT REPRODUCE LEGIBLY ON BLACK AND WHITE MICROFICHE. TABLE OF CONTENTS THE INSTITUTE 2 MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT 3 RESEARCH O VER VIEW 4 Technology Assessments 5 Systems Evaluations 9 Test and Evaluation 14 Force and Strategy Assessments 18 Resource and Support Analyses 22 High Performance Computing and Communications 26 AREAS OF SPECIAL INTEREST 29 Advanced Simulation 30 Information Systems and Technologies 34 Dual-Use Technologies and Manufacturing 37 Cost and Effectiveness of Acquisition Programs 41 Support for DoD's Bottom-Up Review 44 Environmental Security 47 Target Acquisition Modeling 50 IDA AND ITS PEOPLE 52 FINANCIAL REPORT _..—. 62 • -Z£Z&£* X^ISQPMÄ ilfg?3CÄlI3^ THE INSTITUTE The Institute for Defense Analyses is a federally funded research and development center established to assist the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands and Defense Agencies in addressing important national security issues, particularly those requiring scientific and technical expertise. IDA also conducts related research for other government agencies on national problems for which the Institute's skills and expertise are especially suited. MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT Much has been said and written about the changing world and the new challenges we face as a nation — but are these challenges new? Taken individually, many of today's most urgent problems are endemic: Balkan strife and bloodshed, violence and famine in the Horn of Africa, arms races in regional tinderboxes. None, unfortunately, is new. Other challenges, such as down- sizing America's military while preserving readiness and transitioning the economy from a wartime to a peacetime footing, also Larry D. Welch, President (right) and have been faced several times before in this W. Jarvis Moody, Chairman century. Yet viewed together against a backdrop that includes the widespread availability of concepts to replace those of the old bipolar world. nuclear weapons and the question of America's Genuine progress has been made in DoD and status as the sole superpower, these challenges elsewhere; more needs to be done. aggregate to comprise a world that is very new. The third challenge arises from the collapse For those of us whose professional business of the Soviet empire. With that collapse, American is national security analysis, there are three priorities have shifted. Today, fewer resources compounding challenges. The first is to remain and less attention are devoted to national security. aware of and responsive to today's issues and Yet because the issues we face are difficult, and priorities. For IDA this has meant increasing our the budgetary margin for error small, it is even focus on information systems, military readiness, more importantjhatnational security decision and cost effectiveness — both in procurement of makers get the best possible analytic support,. systems such as the C-17 and in defense infra- Thus the third challenge — and the primary one structure, dual-use technologies, weapons for IDA's leadership — is to ensure that the proliferation, and environmental problems. And Institute continues to attract and nurture quality because simulation holds the dual promise of people so that our support of the Department of serving as a valuable and relatively inexpensive Defense and our other sponsors remains of the adjunct to more traditional forms of training, and highest caliber. of permitting more sophisticated procurement decisions, it also has meant expending consider- The following pages offer highlights of our able effort to improve simulation tools and apply research program and attest to IDA's capability them to real-world problems. and commitment to address the challenges we all face. The second challenge is that of approaching today's issues with an intellectually open mind, rejecting assumptions that may no longer be valid, while still heeding the lessons of history. Concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the third world have been voiced since the 1970s, yet nuclear bipolarity was the driving force in our General Larry D. Welch, USAF (Ret) thinking about deterrence and defense policy overall. Now we must fashion new theories and President RESEARCH OVERVIEW IDA'S yearly program of research is a mixture of continuing analyses that address enduring problems and new starts in response to sponsor requirements. We categorize our work into six primary areas: technology assessments, systems evaluations, test and evaluation, force and strategy assessments, resource and support analyses, and high performance computing and communications. Overviews of each of these, with brief descriptions of representative studies, are given here. TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS Maintaining technological superiority Tactical Warning and Attack Assessment remains a cornerstone of US The United States maintains a constellation defense strategy. With defense of satellites known as the Defense Support budgets shrinking and technological Program (DSP) for the primary purpose of opportunities expanding — rapidly in some providing early warning of ballistic missile areas — selecting the "right" technology attacks. DSP satellites were to be replaced by investments requires comprehensive and the Follow-on Early Warning System (FEWS). current knowledge of both technological Budgetary pressures led DoD to reconsider advances and evolving military needs. IDA alternatives to FEWS, including upgraded continues to provide the scientific and techni- versions of the DSP.(ID A provided an inde- cal support needed for the Department of pendent assessment of the proposed DSP Defense to make these difficult technology upgrades and evaluated other non-FEWS choices. Some recent efforts are discussed options, such as two alternate multispectral below, while others are covered in more detail approaches. Our analyses focused on the under Areas of Special Interest. technical feasibility, performance and costs of Sensors and Observables the alternative sensor systems. This work contributed to DoD's decision to restructure its Ultra-Wideband Radar program for developing and procuring systems The capability to detect targets obscured for early warning of ballistic missile attack. J by dense foliage or placed underground may be critical to future warfare. Stimulated by Materials the development of extremely fast, high voltage switches that permit the generation of The ability to produce advanced materials very-high-power, ultrashort pulses, ultra- at low cost is critical to the performance and wideband (UWB) radars offer the potential affordability of future defense systems. IDA for significant performance improvements is at the forefront of assessing the expanding compared to conventional microwave fre- opportunities for the production and quency sensors. We are studying the application of advanced materials. One potential of UWB radars to detect hidden material of current interest is a titanium targets, examining key issues such as its alloy reinforced with continuous ceramic capability to perform focused radar imaging fibers, which is being developed for possible through random media (tree canopies and use in advanced airframe structures and in soil, for example) and its capability to over- the rotating components of new gas turbine come heavy concurrent use of the same aircraft engines. frequency bands by other radars. Other efforts sponsored by ARPA IDA provides technical support to the include the evaluation of advanced ceramic Advanced Research Projects Agency fibers, ceramic matrix composites, advanced (ARPA) in investigating the phenomenology, technology and potential applications of monolithic ceramics and, most recently, free- form processing of complex ceramic parts, ultra-wideband radars. We have participated in expert evaluation panels, provided advice which offers the potential for flexible and low to help structure ARPA's current research cost manufacturing processes. We also are program, and conducted specific technical investigating techniques for inserting ceramic analyses of clutter measurements, ground parts, such as roller or ball bearings, into penetration phenomena, signal processing existing hardware components, and we are and radar system design. continuing to assess the development of thick-section polymer-matrix composite In 1993, the Ballistic Missile Defense structural components for advanced mari- Organization asked IDA to assist in improving time applications. the awareness and use of the software inspection process. We assessed the inspection In a related area, the Institute has played process, examining the potential benefits and a significant technical role in helping ARPA cost savings of software inspection in compari- formulate new programs in fuel cell technol- son with traditional review processes. We also ogy for defense needs — an area which has assisted in transitioning the inspection process been frustrated for decades by the extreme into the ballistic missile defense program. materials design problems associated with the use of hydrogen. With IDA support, ARPA AM TO Ada Software Programming Environment is implementing programs to design IDA's experience in using the Ada advanced fuel cells based upon a family of programming language, and in conducting new materials that use ordinary fuels such as technical risk analyses of state-of-the-art gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel. software development tools, has been essen- Electronic systems are evolving at a very tial to our ongoing support for the NATO high rate. Processing capacities are doubling Special Working Group on Ada Programming every few years. The development of new Support Environments. Working with electronic devices, along with parallel researchers from participating NATO improvements in semiconductor fabrication, nations, we have helped produce a collection are expected to lead to greater performance of advanced development tools for using the and lower cost for future military systems. Ada programming language. Another Our current work in this area is focused on NATO project demonstrated that through improved semiconductor fabrication, thus the better use of common tools and integra- helping ARPA develop manufacturing tion support, larger numbers of individuals techniques that lower the costs of fabricating and companies within the NATO nations DoD-unique semiconductors typically can work effectively to accomplish military produced in relatively small numbers. software projects more rapidly. Natural Langnage Information Extraction Computing Systems and Software The Institute is providing analytic Software Inspections support to the joint ARPA/NSA-sponsored Up to 40 percent of the cost of DoD Tipster project, which is exploring the software development is devoted to correct- technology for computer-based automated ing defects. The commercial industry "best extraction of information from written text. practice" of formal software inspection has This is a strikingly challenging area, given the resulted in an effective process for reducing complexity and subtlety of human language. defects throughout software development. We created templates for data extraction that When combined with traditional testing have been applied successfully to English- practices, this inspection process routinely and foreign-language articles about joint and significantly improves the quality of business ventures and microelectronics fielded systems while reducing their cost. A fabrication. Another project used extracted common practice in commercial industry, information from several thousand test formal software inspection is not used rou- articles to create a "human-derived" baseline tinely by DoD contractors. against which various computer extraction systems will be evaluated. Some of this propellant is used. This vulnerability is not information is being used to develop new attributable to the propellant but is a conse- extraction algorithms and to test additional quence of the rate of fire and range objectives. information extraction approaches. The liquid propellant does, however, intro- duce some additional risks, such as creating a New Technologies in Defense Systems corrosive environment inside the gun, Advanced Artillery Technologies increased complexity, and potentially unstable pressure oscillations. These risks are serious, The Army's Advanced Field Artillery but the continued development of the liquid System is intended to improve the rate of fire, propellant gun could provide considerable the range, and the accuracy of US medium insight into the technological challenges posed class artillery. To achieve the desired rate of by other future-generation guns using electric fire, the Army is developing a liquid propellant or electro-thermal-chemical propulsion. with low toxicity, high-energy density, and low susceptibility to inadvertent detonation. Ship and Submarine Propulsion Technologies The United States, the United Kingdom and Significant advances in the design of Germany are cooperatively developing a solid naval propulsion systems have raised the propellant, Unicharge, as an alternative to the possibility of introducing improved perfor- liquid propellant. mance at a lower cost in both Navy surface Our analysis of propellant technology ships and submarines. To examine this found that the susceptibility of gun overheat- possibility, DoD asked IDA to conduct a ing, and the resulting increased rate of wear, two-phased evaluation of alternative naval represented a critical technical program risk, propulsion systems. regardless of whether a liquid or a solid Animated discussions produce innovative approaches to solving complex technical problems.