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Driver Behaviour and Accident Research Methodology: Unresolved Problems PDF

303 Pages·2009·3.89 MB·English
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DRIVER BEHAVIOUR AND ACCIDENT RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Human Factors in Road and Rail Transport Series Editors Dr Lisa Dorn Director of the Driving Research Group, Department of Human Factors, Cranfield University Dr Gerald Matthews Professor of Psychology at the University of Cincinnati Dr Ian Glendon Associate Professor of Psychology at Griffith University, Queensland, and is president of the Division of Traffic and Transportation Psychology of the International Association of Applied Psychology Today’s society must confront major land transport problems. The human and financial costs of vehicle accidents are increasing, with road traffic accidents predicted to become the third largest cause of death and injury across the world by 2020. Several social trends pose threats to safety, including increasing car ownership and traffic congestion, the increased complexity of the human-vehicle interface, the ageing of populations in the developed world, and a possible influx of young vehicle operators in the developing world. Ashgate’s ‘Human Factors in Road and Rail Transport’ series aims to make a timely contribution to these issues by focusing on the driver as a contributing causal agent in road and rail accidents. The series seeks to reflect the increasing demand for safe, efficient and economical land-based transport by reporting on the state-of-theart science that may be applied to reduce vehicle collisions, improve the usability of vehicles and enhance the operator’s wellbeing and satisfaction. It will do so by disseminating new theoretical and empirical research from specialists in the behavioural and allied disciplines, including traffic psychology, human factors and ergonomics. The series captures topics such as driver behaviour, driver training, in-vehicle technology, driver health and driver assessment. Specially commissioned works from internationally recognised experts in the field will provide authoritative accounts of the leading approaches to this significant real-world problem. Driver Behaviour and Accident Research Methodology Unresolved Problems ANDERS AF WÅHLBERG Uppsala University, Sweden © Anders af Wåhlberg 2009 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Anders af Wåhlberg has asserted his moral right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work. Published by Ashgate Publishing Limited Ashgate Publishing Company Wey Court East Suite 420 Union Road 101 Cherry Street Farnham Burlington Surrey, GU9 7PT VT 05401-4405 England USA www.ashgate.com British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Wåhlberg, Anders af. Driver behaviour and accident research methodology : unresolved problems. -- (Human factors in road and rail transport) 1. Traffic accidents--Research. 2. Automobile driving-- Psychological aspects. I. Title II. Series 363.1'251-dc22 ISBN: 978-0-7546-7076-6 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-7546-8128-1 (ebk.III) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Wåhlberg, Anders af. Driver behaviour and accident research methodology : unresolved problems / by Anders af Wåhlberg. p. cm. -- (Human factors in road and rail transport) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-7546-7076-6 (hardback) -- ISBN 978-0-7546-8128-1 (ebook) 1. Automobile drivers--Psychology. 2. Traffic accident investigation. I. Title. TL152.3.W34 2009 363.12'565--dc22 2009018261 Contents List of Figures vii List of Tables ix Acknowledgements xiii Introduction xv 1 Traffic Accident Involvement Taxonomies 1 2 The Validity of Self-reported Traffic Behaviour Data 17 3 Accident Proneness 65 4 The Determination of Fault in Collisions 101 5 The Accident-Exposure Association 121 6 Constructing a Driving Safety Criterion 139 7 Alternatives to Accidents as Dependent Variable 173 8 Cases Studies 209 Afterword 217 References 231 Index 277 This page has been left blank intentionally List of Figures 3.1 The association between mean number of accidents in each sample for the whole time period used and the (squared) correlation of accidents between parts of this period (usually split-half) 78 3.2 The association between mean number of accidents and the (squared) correlation between accidents in different time periods in the samples, for culpable accidents only, from studies in Table 3.1 87 3.3 The reliabilities (Spearman-Brown corrected correlations) found for factory workers’ accidents by Whitlock, Clouse and Spencer (1963) 93 3.4 The number of accidents (regardless of culpability) per year experienced by one bus driver 99 5.1 The association between annual mileage category and mean number of accidents reported in Lefeve, Billion and Cross (1956) 127 5.2 The association between annual mileage category and mean number of accidents reported in Ferdun, Peck and Coppin (1967) 131 5.3 The association between annual mileage category and mean number of accidents reported in Liddell (1982) 132 5.4 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number of (motor cycle) accidents reported in Taylor and Lockwood (1990) 132 5.5 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number of accidents for male drivers reported in Maycock, Lockwood and Lester (1991) 133 5.6 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number of accidents for female drivers reported in Maycock, Lockwood and Lester (1991) 133 5.7 The association between annual mileage category and mean number of accidents for two categories of drivers (with and without traffic fines) reported in Lourens, Vissers and Jessurun (1999) 134 5.8 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number of accidents per million miles for male drivers reported in Maycock, Lockwood and Lester (1991) 134 5.9 The association between annual mean mileage and mean number of accidents per million miles for female drivers reported in Maycock, Lockwood and Lester (1991) 135 This page has been left blank intentionally List of Tables 2.1 Studies on the validity of self-reports in two broad categories; injuries/accidents and behaviour/characteristics 18–19 2.2 Studies that have compared agreement of self-reported traffic accidents/incidents with other sources, and reported per cent agreement in terms of the means of the sources 22 2.3 Studies that have compared the numbers of self-reported traffic accidents with data from records of various types, and reported per cent agreement 24–25 2.4 Studies that have compared self-reported traffic accidents/ incidents to other sources, and reported agreement in terms of an association measure 26–27 2.5 Correlations between effect sizes for self-report and state- recorded accidents with different predictors in various studies 36 2.6 The associations and differences between self-reported and state records for traffic citations 43 3.1 The results from studies on the association between numbers of traffic accidents in different time periods, which were included in the meta-analysis 72–75 3.2 The results from studies on the association between numbers of traffic accidents in different time periods that did not report values that could be included in the meta-analysis 76 3.3 The correlations between the (squared) size of the correlations between time periods from Table 3.1 and time periods and the mean number of accidents in each sample (total time period) 77 3.4 The increase in between time periods correlations with time period and mean number of accidents for three driver groups 79 3.5 The correlations between squared between time periods correlations and time periods and accident means 86 3.6 The correlations found between industrial workers’ accidents in different time periods by Greenwood and Woods (1919) 91 3.7 The correlations found between shunters’ accidents in different time periods by Adelstein (1952) 92 3.8 The correlations found between shunters’ mishaps (property damage accidents) in different time periods by Adelstein (1952) 92 4.1 Some studies where culpable and non-culpable collisions have been separated and culpability assigned by the drivers 104–105

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This book discusses several methodological problems in traffic psychology which are not currently recognized as such. Summarizing and analyzing the available research, it is found that there are a number of commonly made assumptions about the validity of methods that have little backing, and that ma
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