DO PARTIES MAKE A DIFFERENCE? Also by Richard Rose United Kingdom Facts, with Ian McAllister Can Government Go Bankrupt? with Guy Peters What Is Governing? Purpose and Policy in Washington Managing Presidential Objectives Northern Ireland: A Time of Choice The Problem of Party Government International Almanac of Electoral History, with T. T. Mackie Governing without Consensus People in Politics Influencing Voters Politics in England Must Labour Lose? with Mark Abrams The British General Election of 1959, with D. E. Butler Edited by Richard Rose Presidents and Prime Ministers, with Ezra Suleiman Electoral Participation Britain: Progress and Decline, with William B. Gwyn Challenge to Governance Elections without Choice, with Guy Hermet and Alain Rouquie New Trends in British Politics, with Dennis Kavanagh The Dynamics of Public Policy Comparing Public Policies with Jerzy Wiatr The Management of Urban Change in Britain and Germany Electoral Behavior: A Comparative Handbook Lessons from America European Politics, with Mattei Dogan Policy-Making in Britain Studies in British Politics DO PARTIES MAKE A DIFFERENCE? Richard Rose © Richard Rose 1980 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1980 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission First published 1980 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Companies and representatives throughout the world ISBN 978-1-349-05434-3 ISBN 978-1-349-05432-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-05432-9 To ROSEMARY who certainly makes a difference Contents Introduction I 1 Parties and Public Policy The Basic Assumptions. The Historical Context. 9 2 Adversary or Consensus Politics? Government and Opposition. The Test of Office. The Contingency ofI nfluence. 3 The Choice at Elections What the Voters Think. What the Parties Think. 33 4 Testing the Manifesto The Evolution of the Manifesto. What Is Said and What Is Done. Are Manifestos Adversary or Consensus Documents? 52 5 Adversary Parliament and Consensus Legislation What MPs Think. What MPs Do. From Tacit Consent to Moving Consensus. 74 6 Reorganizing Government: Partisanship without Technocracy Changing the Rules of the Game. Change and Resistance at the Centre. Good Government: Intentions Are Not Enough. 92 7 Managing the Economy: Neither Technocracy nor Ideology Expanding the Alternatives. Government Inputs. Economic Outcomes. The Force ofC ircumstance. Io6 8 Something Stronger Than Parties The Models That Fit. Votes Count, Resources Decide. The Dynamics ofa Moving Consensus. Into the 1980s. Notes Index 173 List of T abies 3.1 Class Differences in Party Loyalties, 1979 34 3.2. How the Electorate Divides by Class and Party, 1979 37 3·3 The Policy Preference of Partisans during the 1979 Election 40 3·4 Interparty Disagreement and Intraparty Cohesion on Issues, 1979 41 3·5 Voters' Perceptions of Differences or Similarities between the Parties, 1951-79 43 3.6 The Consensual Titles of Party Manifestos, 1945-79 45 3·7 Positive and Negative Rhetoric in the Speeches of Party Leaders, 197o-74 49 4.1 The Growing Length of Election Manifestos, I9QO-I979 55 4.2. The Number and Subject of Manifesto Pledges, 197o-74 63 4·3 How Parties Act upon Their Manifestos, 197o-79 65 4·4 Partisan and Nonpartisan Manifesto Pledges, 197o-74 69 4·5 Legislative Initiatives and Consensus Responses, 1970-79 70 5.1 The Infrequency of Opposition Divisions against Government Legislation, 197o-79 80 5.2. The Subject Matter of Consensus and Adversary Bills, 197o-79 81 5·3 Divisions on Policy and Administration Bills, 197o-79 82 5·4 Backbench Dissent, 1945-79 84 5·5 The Opposition Use of Supply Day Motions, 197o-79 86 7.1 Increases in Public Expenditure by Programme, 1957-78 122 List of Figures 3.1 The Narrowing Distance between Party Manifestos on Major Economic Issues, 192.4-66 46 5.1 Contrasting Levels of Partisan Hostility, Britain and Italy 78 7.1 The Secular Trend Upwards in Minimum Lending Rate, 1957-79 115 7.2. The Secular Trend Upwards in Public Sector Borrowing, 1957-78 117 7·3 The Secular Trend Upwards in Public Expenditure, 1957-78 119 7·4 The Secular Trend Upwards in the National Product, 1957-79 127 7·5 The Secular Trend Upwards in Take-Home Pay, 1957-78 130 7.6 The Secular Trend in the Distribution of Income, 1961-]6 132 7. 7 The Secular Trend in the Distribution of Wealth, 196o-77 133 7.8 The Secular Trend Upwards in Unemployment, 1957-79 135 7·9 The Secular Trend Upwards in the Annual Rate of Inflation, 1957-79 136 Acknowledgments This study concentrates on what parties do in office. Does the record of a Conservative government differ significantly from that of a Labour government? In many respects, this book is thus a sequel to The Problem of Party Government, in which I analyzed how parties compete at elections and act as organizations, and the problems poli ticians face on entering the dark corridors of government office. The immediate stimulus to write this book came from Italy, where the advent of Fascism in I922 demonstrated to Italians that there is a big difference between some parties. Since then Italians have speculated, at times optimistically and at times apprehensively, about how much difference can result from a change of party control of government. Today, the only alternative to the long-reigning Christian Democrats are the Communists. Following the ambiguous compromeso storico between Christian Democrats and Communists, the Agnelli Foundation of Turin decided to commission studies of the influence of party government in major European societies. A paper written for that project led me to examine the question more fully, and this book is the result. In writing about party government in Britain, I have been able to draw upon firsthand knowledge acquired over a quarter-century of research in British party politics. But in no sense is this book a personal recollection or an inside dopester's account of what high ranking politicians thought they were doing. As the chapters demon strate, selective and subjective observations can often be misleading. The conclusions of this book are based upon a rigorous and system atic sifting of the evidence of what government (and opposition) ac tually did. The book is short because it concentrates on the forest rather than particular trees. The compilation of many of the tables herein was untertaken by Richard Parry of the Centre for the Study of Public Policy, who worked with the meticulousness of an ex-civil servant and the intel lectual concerns of a promising scholar. Data from unpublished as XI DO PARTIES MAKE A DIFFERENCE? well as published annual surveys of parliamentary legislation were made available by lvor F. Burton and Gavin Drewry of Bedford Col lege, University of London, whose work merits the careful scrutiny of persons interested in contemporary parliamentary affairs. Unpub lished as well as published data from public opinion surveys have been made available by the Gallup poll and National Opinion polls. Useful comments on portions of the work in progress were received from Dennis Kavanagh of Manchester University, Philip Norton of Hull University, and Malcolm Punnett of Strathclyde as well as from practising politicians. Mrs. R. West, with assistance from colleagues, has once again produced the necessary typescripts of a book with both speed and accuracy. In case an inquisitive reader might wish to know something about my own political party bias, it is outside the main alignments of the British party system, being that of a border-state Truman Democrat. The experience of studying party politics in Britain through the years has generated a liking for the people involved, and a respect for the system they operate. But it has also produced too much evidence of things gone awry for me to commit myself to any party. My personal concern is more with the issues of British politics than the parties that deal with them, and this is probably the view of the majority of the British electorate today. RicHARD RosE Bennochy Helensburgh xii