Diverse development paths and structural transformation in the escape from poverty PDF
Preview Diverse development paths and structural transformation in the escape from poverty
OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi Diverse Development Paths and Structural Transformation in the Escape from Poverty OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi Diverse Development Paths and Structural Transformation in the Escape from Poverty Edited by Martin Andersson and Tobias Axelsson 1 OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries ©thevariouscontributors2016 Themoralrightsoftheauthorshavebeenasserted FirstEditionpublishedin2016 Impression:1 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016,UnitedStatesofAmerica BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015955610 ISBN 978–0–19–873740–7 PrintedinGreatBritainby ClaysLtd,StIvesplc LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi Preface and Acknowledgements Wehadtwoobjectiveswhenwestartedtosketchtheoutlineofthisvolume. First, to gather world-leading scholars with interests in long-term economic dynamics in the borderland between Economic History and Development Economics to reflect upon the development gap in the world economy and the prospects for less advantaged economies to move ahead. We asked the contributorstodiscussapproachestoandpatternsofeconomicdevelopment of today in a longer-term perspective. What are the lessons learned, to be discovered, or perhaps, rediscovered? We proposed to the authors to freely revisitanalyticalconceptssuchasadvantagesanddisadvantagesofbackward- ness,actsofsubstitution,theroleofinitialconditions,socialcapabilitiesetc. inprocess-orientedperspectivesinthetraditionofGerschenkron,Hirschman, Abramovitz, to name a few. We thought, and still think, that this fills a significantgapinthecurrentdevelopmentdiscussion. A secondobjectivewastohonourProfessor Christer Gunnarssonwho has devoted his academic career, in both teaching and research, to discussing these very issues. We are both, as former students and current colleagues, indebtedtohisurgingandefforttofocusonsocialchange,toberelevantto currentaffairs,tolettheresearchquestionsguidethechoiceofmethodsand alwaystokeepasoundscepticismtowardsthefadsinthefield.WithChrister being a big fan of the Gerschenkronian approach—at least until asked to contribute with a chapter using such a perspective to this volume—we thoughtafittingdedicationwouldbetoaskscholarswithsimilarinclinations todelveintotheveryquestionshehimselfhasgrappledwith.Itisourhope thatthisbookwillinspirethinkingaboutexperiencesofandpossibilitiesfor catchingupinthedevelopingworld,inacohesivewayandwithoutbeingin thralltopre-setuniversalmodels. To complete a project like this is impossible without the devotion of the contributors.Ourdeepestthanksgotoallofyouforalltheworkyouhaveput intothisvolume.1Wealsothankourcolleaguesinthe‘developmentgroup’at 1 InJanuary2016,asthisbookwentthroughitsfinalstages,LennartSchönsadlypassedaway. With his structural-analytical approach he made a profound intellectual impression in Lund andbeyond.Withhumblesharpnessanddepthhewasasourceofinspirationtomanyofus. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi PrefaceandAcknowledgements the department of Economic History, Lund University, for stimulating and constructivediscussions.SpecialthanksgotoMontserratLópezJerez.Cristián ArturoDucoingRuizdeservesaspecialmention. At Oxford University Press, we would like to thank Adam Swallow, who right from the start believed in our proposal, and Aimee Wright, for their guidanceandassistance.Withoutfinancialsupportwecouldnothavecarried out this project. We would like to thank The Swedish Research Council, The Crafoord Foundation, Rektor Nils Stjernquists forskningsfond, and Per WestlingsMinnesfond. MartinisgratefultoTeresiaRindefjällandTobiastoSarahHill.Thankyou for always being there for us, providing encouragement, invaluable com- ments,andsuggestionsalongtheway. MartinandTobias Lund28January2016 vi OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi Table of Contents ListofFigures ix ListofTables xi NotesonContributors xiii Part1. StructuralTransformationandCatchingup 1. DiversityofDevelopmentPathsandStructuralTransformation inHistoricalPerspective—anIntroduction 3 MartinAnderssonandTobiasAxelsson 2. StructuralChangeandCatchingup—theRelativeSmallCountry Advantage 18 LennartSchön 3. TheLatecomerAdvantagesandDisadvantages:ANewStructural EconomicsPerspective 43 JustinYifuLin 4. TheRoleofAgriculturein‘Catchingup’:AGerschenkronian Perspective 68 C.PeterTimmer Part2. DiversityinDevelopment 5. MisinterpretingtheEastAsianMiracle—aGerschenkronian PerspectiveonSubstitutionandAdvantagesofBackwardness intheIndustrializationofEasternAsia 93 ChristerGunnarsson 6. SoutheastAsia:TheHalf-wayMiracle? 128 AnneBooth 7. HasLatinAmericaChangedTracks?Catchingup:NowandThen. Anessay 158 LuisBértola OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi TableofContents 8. EconomicBackwardnessandCatchingup:BrazilianAgriculture, 1964–2014 181 LeeAlstonandBernardoMueller 9. IsAfricaTooLatefor‘LateDevelopment’?GerschenkronSouth oftheSahara 206 GarethAustin 10. IsSub-SaharanAfricaFinallyCatchingup? 236 ErikThorbeckeandYusiOuyang 11. RelativeEconomicBackwardnessandCatchingup:Lessonsfrom History,ImplicationsforDevelopmentThinking 266 MartinAnderssonandTobiasAxelsson Index 277 viii OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,4/3/2016,SPi List of Figures 2.1 RatiobetweenWorldGrossProduction1990–2013aggregated inPPP1990toaggregatedinupdatedPPP2005. 24 2.2 GDPpercapita1990–2005inChinaandIndia—levelsof1990PPP (lowercurves)and2005PPP(uppercurves).USDollarpercapita. Logscale. 25 3.1 DevelopmentsincetheIndustrialRevolution. 47 3.2 DistributionofCountriesby(Relative)IncomeClassification, 1900–2008,%. 48 3.3 LatinAmericanEconomicPerformanceovertheLastCentury. 49 4.1 ImpactoftheEnglishCornLawsontheIndustrialRevolution. 79 4.2 LandandLabourProductivityinAgriculture,1961–2010. 86 5.1 TheIshikawacurves. 111 8.1 Smooth,rugged,andrandomfitnesslandscapes. 185 8.2 Theactualandbeliefs. 188 8.3 Stagesofeconomicgrowthvs.economicbackwardness. 190 8.4 Hirschman’sHidingHandPrincipleinfitnesslandscapes. 194 8.5 Theevolutionofproduction,land,labour,andTFPinBrazilianagriculture. 195 8.6 TheevolutionofTFPacrosscountries. 196 8.7 Brazil’srankin1970and2012asaproducerofthetop-tenmostvaluable cropsandlivestockproductsof2012. 197 10.1 GDPpercapita(constant2005US$)byRegionduring1960–2013. 242
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