Democratic Transitions: Modes and Outcomes PDF
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SPINE 12.5mm L A Y O R D e Democratization StuDieS m o c r a t i c t r a n s i t i o n s S u j i a n G u o a n d G a r y a . S tr a d i o tto Democratic transitions Modes and outcomes Sujian Guo and Gary a. Stradiotto ISBN 978-0-415-64320-7 www.routledge.com 9 780415 643207 SPINE 12.5mm Democratic Transitions Democratic transitions have occurred in many countries in various regions across the globe, such as Southern Europe, Latin America, Africa, East and Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and these nations have undergone simultaneously political, economic and social transformations. Yet, the patterns and characteristics of transitions have varied significantly, and different modes of transition have resulted in different outcomes. This book offers cross- national comparisons of democratic transition since the turn of the twentieth century and asks what makes democracies succeed or fail. In doing so it explores the influence the mode of transition has on the lon- gevity or durability of the democracy, by theoretically examining and quantita- tively testing this relationship. The authors argue that the mode of transition directly impacts the success and failure of democracy, and suggest that coopera- tive transitions, where opposition groups work together with incumbent elites to peacefully transition the state, result in democracies that last longer and are asso- ciated with higher measures of democratic quality. Based on a cross- national dataset of all democratic transitioning states since 1900, this book will be of great interest to students and scholars of international politics, comparative politics and democracy, and democratization studies. Sujian Guo is Distinguished Professor at Zhejiang University and Fudan University, and an academic committee member of Peking University-Fudan University-Jilin University Co-innovation Center for State Governance in China and Professor in the Department of Political Science and Director of the Center for U.S.–China Policy Studies at San Francisco State University, U.S.A. Gary A. Stradiotto is Professorial Lecturer of Political Science at The George Washington University, U.S.A. Democratization Studies (formerly Democratization Studies, Frank Cass) Democratization Studies combines theoretical and comparative studies with detailed analyses of issues central to democratic progress and its performance, all over the world. The books in this series aim to encourage debate on the many aspects of demo- cratization that are of interest to policy- makers, administrators and journalists, aid and development personnel, as well as to all those involved in education. 1 Democratization and the Media Edited by Vicky Randall 2 The Resilience of Democracy Persistent practice, durable idea Edited by Peter Burnell and Peter Calvert 3 The Internet, Democracy and Democratization Edited by Peter Ferdinand 4 Party Development and Democratic Change in Post- Communist Europe Edited by Paul Lewis 5 Democracy Assistance International co-o peration for democratization Edited by Peter Burnell 6 Opposition and Democracy in South Africa Edited by Roger Southall 7 The European Union and Democracy Promotion The case of North Africa Edited by Richard Gillespie and Richard Youngs 8 Democratization and the Judiciary Edited by Siri Gloppen, Roberto Gargarella and Elin Skaar 9 Civil Society in Democratization Edited by Peter Burnell and Peter Calvert 10 The Internet and Politics Citizens, voters and activists Edited by Sarah Oates, Diana Owen and Rachel Gibson 11 Democratization in the Muslim World Changing patterns of authority and power Edited by Frederic Volpi and Francesco Cavatorta 12 Global Democracy: For and Against Ethical theory, institutional design and social struggles Raffaele Marchetti 13 Constructing Democracy in Southern Europe A comparative analysis of Italy, Spain and Turkey Lauren M. McLaren 14 The Consolidation of Democracy Comparing Europe and Latin America Carsten Q. Schneider 15 New Challenges to Democratization Edited by Peter Burnell and Richard Youngs 16 Multiple Democracies in Europe Political culture in new member states Paul Blokker 17 Globality, Democracy and Civil Society Edited by Terrell Carver and Jens Bartelson 18 Democracy Promotion and Conflict-b ased Reconstruction The United States and democratic consolidation in Bosnia and Afghanistan Matthew Alan Hill 19 Requisites of Democracy Conceptualization, measurement, and explanation Jørgen Møller and Svend-E rik Skaaning 20 The Conceptual Politics of Democracy Promotion Edited by Christopher Hobson and Milja Kurki 21 Ethnic Politics and Democratic Transition in Rwanda David Kiwuwa 22 Democracy and Democratization in Comparative Perspective Conceptions, conjunctures, causes and consequences Jørgen Møller and Svend-E rik Skaaning 23 The Comparative International Politics of Democracy Promotion Jonas Wolff, Hans- Joachim Spanger and Hans- Jürgen Puhle 24 Democratization and Ethnic Minorities Conflict or compromise? Edited by Jacques Bertrand and Oded Haklai 25 Democratic Transitions Modes and outcomes Sujian Guo and Gary A. Stradiotto Democratic Transitions Modes and outcomes Sujian Guo and Gary A. Stradiotto First published 2014 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2014 Sujian Guo and Gary A. Stradiotto The right of Sujian Guo and Gary A. Stradiotto to be identified as authors of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Stradiotto, Gary A. Democratic transitions: modes and outcomes/Gary A. Stradiotto, Sujian Guo. pages cm. – (Democratization studies) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Democratization–Cross-c ultural studies. I. Guo, Sujian. II. Title. JC423.S863 2014 321.8–dc23 2013037826 ISBN: 978-0-415-64320-7 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-79661-1 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by Wearset Ltd, Boldon, Tyne and Wear Contents List of figures viii List of tables ix About the authors x 1 Introduction 1 2 Modes of democratic transition 16 3 A theory of explaining the success rate of democratic transitions 32 4 Research design and empirics 51 5 Democratic prospects 78 6 Conclusion 119 Appendix 125 Index 134 Figures 1.1 Average democratic duration by transition type 8 1.2 Average democratic quality by transition type 8 2.1 The process of democratization 16 3.1 Classifying transitions 33 3.2 Modes of transition, a unified approach 44 3.3 Mode of transition as intervening variable 46 3.4 Prototype democratic growth after transition 47 4.1 Research design 63 4.2 Kaplan–Meier survival estimates, by transition type 65 Tables 1.1 Summary statistics of transition type 7 4.1 Dependent and independent variable coding rules 58 4.2 OLS regression for democratic quality – ten years after transition (robust standard errors in parentheses) 66 4.3 Duration analysis for democratic longevity – ten years after transition 67 4.4 Multinomial logistic regression results of prior regime type on transition type (robust standard errors) 71 4.5 OLS results for democratic quality – prior regime type (robust standard errors) 73 4.6 Duration analysis results – prior regime type (robust standard errors) 74 5.1 The predicted value model of Iraq’s democratic transition 83 5.2 The predicted value model of Tunisia’s democratic transition 99 5.3 The predicted value model of Egypt’s democratic transition 102 5.4 The predicted value model of Libya’s democratic transition 104 5.5 The predicted value model of Yemen’s democratic transition 106 5.6 China’s share of world GDP 109 5.7 The predicted value model of China’s potential democratic transition 113
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