Deliberate Ignorance Choosing Not to Know Strüngmann Forum Reports Julia R. Lupp, series editor The Ernst Strüngmann Forum is made possible through the generous support of the Ernst Strüngmann Foundation, inaugurated by Dr. Andreas and Dr. Thomas Strüngmann. This Forum was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Deliberate Ignorance Choosing Not to Know Edited by Ralph Hertwig and Christoph Engel Program Advisory Committee: Gordon D. A. Brown, Christoph Engel, Simon Gächter, Ralph Hertwig, Julia R. Lupp, and Richard McElreath The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England © 2020 Massachusetts Institute of Technology and ©th e2 F02ra0n Mkfuasrts aIcnhstuistuettets f Ionrs Atitduvtaen ocfe Tde Scthundoielosgy and the Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies Series Editor: J. R. Lupp SEedriiteosr iEald Aitossr:i sJt.a nRc.e L: uMp.p Turner, C. Stephen, A. Ducey-Gessner EPhdoittoorgiaral pAhsss:i sNta. nMceig: uMle. tTzurner, C. Stephen, A. Ducey-Gessner PLhekottoorgarta:p Bhes:r lNin.S MciiegnucleeWtzorks Lektorat: BerlinScienceWorks All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form Abyll e rliegchtrtso nreics eorrv emde. cNhoan picaartl omf etahniss b(ionocklu mdianyg b peh roetporcoodpuyciendg ,i nre acnoyrd fionrgm, boyr ienlfeocrtmroantiico no rs tmoreacghea naincda lr emtreiaenvsa l()i nwciltuhdoiuntg p pehrmotioscsoiopny iinng w, rreitcinogrd firnogm, othre i npfuobrlmisahteior.n storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. The book was set in TimesNewRoman and Arial. TPrhien tbeodo akn wd abso usentd i nin T tihme eUsNnietewdR Sotmataens oanf dA Amreirailc.a. Printed and bound in the United States of America. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Hertwig, Ralph, editor. | Engel, Christoph, 1956- editor. NTiatlme:e Ds: eHliebretrwaitge ,i gRnaolprahn, ceed i:t ochr.o | oEsningge ln, oCt htori sktnoopwh, /1 e9d5i6te- de dbiyto Rr.a lph T iHtlee:r tDweigli baenrda tCe higrinsotorapnhc Ee n: gcehlo. o sing not to know / edited by Ralph D eHsecrrtiwptiigo na:n Cd aCmhbrirsitdogpeh, MEnagsesla.c husetts : The MIT Press, [2020] | Series: D eSstcrürinpgtimonan: nC afomrubmrid rgeep,o Mrtsa s| sIancchluudseetst sb :i bTlihoeg MrapITh iPcarel srse,f e[2re0n2c0e]s | aSnedr ies: Sintdrüenxg. mann forum reports | Includes bibliographical references and I d ienndteix e. rs: LCCN 2020010682 | ISBN 9780262045599 (paperback) ISduebnjteic tesr:s L: CLCSHC:N I g2n0o2r0a0n1c0e 6(8T2h e| oISryB oNf 9k7n8o0w2l6e2d0g4e)5-5-S99o c(ipaal paesrpbeacctks.) | S uIbgjneocrtasn: cLeC (STHhe: oIgryn oorfa knncoe w(Tlehdegoer)y- -oPfs kyncohwolloegdigcea)l- a-Sspoecciatsl. aspects. | C lIagsnsoir acnactieo n(T: hLeCoCry B oDf k2n2o1w .Dle4d3g4e )2-0-P2s1y |c DhoDloCg 1ic2a1l /a.2s-p-edcct2s.3 CLCla srseic ocradt iaovna:i LlaCblCe BatD h2tt2p1s :./D/lc4c3n4. l2o0c2.g1o |v D/2D02C0 102110/6.822--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020010682 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents List of Contributors vii Preface xi The Phenomenon 1 Homo Ignorans: Deliberately Choosing Not to Know 3 Ralph Hertwig and Christoph Engel 2 The Complex Dynamics of Deliberate Ignorance and the 19 Desire to Know in Times of Transformation: The Case of Germany Dagmar Ellerbrock and Ralph Hertwig 3 Utilizing Strategic Ignorance in Negotiations 39 Sarah Auster and Jason Dana 4 Blinding to Remove Biases in Science and Society 51 Robert J. MacCoun Deep Structure 5 The Deep Structure of Deliberate Ignorance: 65 Mapping the Terrain Barry Schwartz, Peter J. Richerson, Benjamin E. Berkman, Jens Frankenreiter, David Hagmann, Derek M. Isaacowitz, Thorsten Pachur, Lael J. Schooler, and Peter Wehling 6 How Forgetting Aids Homo Ignorans 89 Lael J. Schooler 7 Willful Construction of Ignorance: A Tale of Two Ontologies 101 Stephan Lewandowsky Models 8 Models of Deliberate Ignorance in Individual Choice 121 Gordon D. A. Brown and Lukasz Walasek 9 The Evolution of Deliberate Ignorance in Strategic 139 Interaction Christian Hilbe and Laura Schmid 10 The Zoo of Models of Deliberate Ignorance 155 Pete C. Trimmer, Richard McElreath, Sarah Auster, Gordon D. A. Brown, Jason Dana, Gerd Gigerenzer, Russell Golman, Christian Hilbe, Anne Kandler, Yaakov Kareev, Lael J. Schooler, and Nora Szech vi Contents Norms 11 Harry Potter and the Welfare of the Willfully Blinded 187 Felix Bierbrauer 12 Is There a Right Not to Know Genetic Information 199 about Oneself? Benjamin E. Berkman 13 Re ections on Deliberate Ignorance 217 Lewis A. Kornhauser 14 Normative Implications of Deliberate Ignorance 241 Joachim I. Krueger, Ulrike Hahn, Dagmar Ellerbrock, Simon Gächter, Ralph Hertwig, Lewis A. Kornhauser, Christina Leuker, Nora Szech, and Michael R. Waldmann Institutions 15 Institutions Promoting or Countering Deliberate Ignorance 275 Doron Teichman, Eric Talley, Stefanie Egidy, Christoph Engel, Krishna P. Gummadi, Kristin Hagel, Stephan Lewandowsky, Robert J. MacCoun, Sonja Utz, and Eyal Zamir 16 Deliberate Ignorance and the Law 299 Eyal Zamir and Roi Yair 17 Deliberate Ignorance: Present and Future 317 Christoph Engel and Ralph Hertwig Bibliography 333 Subject Index 373 Strüngmann Forum Report Series 379 List of Contributors Auster, Sarah Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University, 20136 Milan, Italy Berkman, Benjamin E. Department of Bioethics, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892-1156, U.S.A. Bierbrauer, Felix Center for Macroeconomic Research, University of Cologne, 50923 Cologne, Germany Brown, Gordon D. A. Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, U.K. Dana, Jason School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, U.S.A. Egidy, Stefanie Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, 53113 Bonn, Germany Ellerbrock, Dagmar Department of History, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Engel, Christoph Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, 53113 Bonn, Germany Frankenreiter, Jens Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, 53113 Bonn, Germany Gächter, Simon School of Economics, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, U.K. Gigerenzer, Gerd Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 14195 Berlin, Germany Golman, Russell Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, U.S.A. Gummadi, Krishna P. Department of Networked Systems, Max Planck Institute for Software Systems, 66123 Saarbruecken, Germany Hagel, Kristin Department of Human Behavior, Ecology and Culture, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, 04103 Leipzig, Germany Hagmann, David Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A. Hahn, Ulrike Department of Psychological Sciences, Birbeck University of London, London WC1E 7HX, U.K. viii List of Contributors Hertwig, Ralph Department of Adaptive Rationality and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 14195 Berlin, Germany Hilbe, Christian Max Planck Research Group Dynamics of Social Behavior, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, 24306 Plön, Germany Isaacowitz, Derek M. Department of Psychology, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, U.S.A. Kandler, Anne Department of Human Behavior, Ecology and Evolution, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, 04103 Leipzig, Germany Kareev, Yaakov Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 91904 Jerusalem, Israel Kornhauser, Lewis A. New York University School of Law, New York, NY 10012 U.S.A. Krueger, Joachim I. Department of Cognitive, Linguistic and Psychological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, U.S.A. Leuker, Christina Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 14195 Berlin, Germany Lewandowsky, Stephan School of Experimental Psychology, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TU, U.K.; and University of Western Australia, Crawley WA 6009, Australia MacCoun, Robert J. Law School, Department of Psychology, and Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 90305, U.S.A. McElreath, Richard Department of Human Behavior, Ecology and Culture, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, 04103 Leipzig, Germany Pachur, Thorsten Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 14195 Berlin, Germany Richerson, Peter J. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, U.S.A. Schmid, Laura Institute of Science and Technology (IST) Austria, 3400 Klosterneuburg, Austria Schooler, Lael J. Department of Psychology, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244, U.S.A. Schwartz, Barry Department of Management, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, U.S.A. Szech, Nora Department of Political Economy, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76133 Karlsruhe, Germany List of Contributors ix Talley, Eric Millstein Center for Global Markets and Corporate Ownership, Columbia Law School, New York, NY 10025, U.S.A. Teichman, Doron Faculty of Law, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem 9190501, Israel Trimmer, Pete C. Faculty of Biology, Evolutionary Biology, University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld 33615, Germany Utz, Sonja Department of Social Media, Leibniz-Institut für Wissensmedien, 72076 Tübingen; and University of Tübingen, 72074 Tübingen, Germany Walasek, Lukasz Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, U.K. Waldmann, Michael R. Department of Psychology, University of Göttingen, 37073 Göttingen, Germany Wehling, Peter Institute of Sociology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Goethe University, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Yair, Roi Faculty of Law, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem 9190501, Israel Zamir, Eyal Faculty of Law, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem 9190501, Israel