Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change: A Science Strategy PDF
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Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change A Science Strategy Panel on Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- istration under Contract No. 50-DKNA-5-00015. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-88439 International Standard Book Number 0-309-06098-2 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) http://www.nap.edu COVER: The Day It Happened, the oil painting reproduced on the cover of this book, is the work of Ilana Cernat of Bat-Yam, Israel. Dr. Cernat is linked to the world of interme- diate-scale climate change through her son Michael Ghil, a member of the panel on Cli- mate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. The Day It Happened (1988) is one of several of her paintings that express her concern for the future, particularly what sort of world we will be leaving to the generations to come. A lawyer by training and profession, Dr. Cernat began studying painting in her teens. Her work has been exhibited in Romania, Hungary, Israel, and the United States, and hangs in collections in other countries as well. Her 1989 painting The Eye of the Storm appeared on the cover of the 1995 NRC report on natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales. Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America PANEL ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON DECADE-TO-CENTURY TIME SCALES DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON (Chair), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York DAVID S. BATTISTI, University of Washington, Seattle RAYMOND S. BRADLEY, University of Massachusetts, Amherst JULIA E. COLE, University of Colorado, Boulder RANA A. FINE, University of Miami, Florida MICHAEL GHIL, University of California, Los Angeles YOCHANAN KUSHNIR, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York SYUKURO MANABE, Earth Frontier Research System, Tokyo, Japan MICHAEL S. McCARTNEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts M. PATRICK McCORMICK, Hampton University, Virginia MICHAEL J. PRATHER, University of California, Irvine EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle PIETER TANS, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado LONNIE G. THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus MICHAEL WINTON, Princeton University, New Jersey Staff ELLEN F. RICE, Program Officer (ending September 1, 1998) PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant iii CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE THOMAS R. KARL (Chair), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina ROBERT E. DICKINSON (Vice Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson MAURICE BLACKMON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado BERT BOLIN, Osterskar, Sweden JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara JAMES GIRAYTYS, Consultant, Winchester, Virginia JAMES E. HANSEN, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, New York, New York PHILIP E. MERILEES, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network, Palisades, New York S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL, University of New Hampshire, Durham STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina KARL E. TAYLOR, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California ANNE M. THOMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland Ex Officio Members DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York W. LAWRENCE GATES, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of Arizona, Tucson PETER J. WEBSTER, University of Colorado, Boulder Staff PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer (IPA) (ending September 30, 1998) TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant iv BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), International Technology Corporation, Washington, D.C. SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts THOMAS J. LENNON, Sonalysts, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts Staff ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, Jr., Director H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer ELLEN F. RICE, Program Officer/Reports Officer (ending September 1, 1998) PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer (IPA) (ending September 30, 1998) TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant ROBIN MORRIS, Administrative Associate v COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., St. George, Utah THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen’s University at Kingston, Ontario H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California Staff ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst vi Preface In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change pogenic climate change is expected to manifest itself, and (IPCC) released its monumental scientific assessment on cli- thus the ones most likely to confound our interpretation and mate change. This document presented, for the first time, a prediction of observed climate change as it relates to anthro- broad international scientific perspective on the status of our pogenic change. The results of this workshop, elaborated and understanding of global climate change, focusing predomi- published in a peer-reviewed National Academy of Science nantly on anthropogenic change. While first recognized as a volume in 1995, showed considerable progress in our under- scientific issue nearly 100 years ago and the subject of many standing of dec-cen climate variability on a broad number of reports, this first attempt at producing a comprehensive as- fronts. sessment of the problem was both timely and energizing. It At the same time the NRC workshop was being orga- helped focus our collective scientific attention on key issues, nized in the United States, the Joint Scientific Committee, an by identifying, among other things, critical gaps in our un- international scientific oversight body for guiding interna- derstanding of the fundamental physics, chemistry, and biol- tional climate research under the auspices of the World Cli- ogy of global change. mate Research Programme (WCRP), called on a group of One significant gap involved our meager understanding experts to consider possible future directions for climate re- and documentation of natural variability in the Earth’s cli- search. The results of their deliberations were published in mate system which provides a context for evaluating the sig- 1992 in a report entitled CLIVAR—A Study of Climate Vari- nificance of human-induced changes. The climate change ability and Predictability. This document proposed the need and variability that we experience will be a commingling of for a new internationally-coordinated, interdisciplinary re- the ever changing natural climate state with any anthropo- search program on climate variability and predictability, with genic change. While we are ultimately interested in under- decade-to-century time scale variability (natural and anthro- standing and predicting how climate will change, regardless pogenic) playing a central role. As the science plan for the of the cause, an ability to differentiate anthropogenic change CLIVAR program was being developed, the United States from natural variability is fundamental to help guide policy Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), also active in decisions, treaty negotiations, and adaptation versus mitiga- the international process, began formalizing plans to advance tion strategies. Without a clear understanding of how cli- the development of a U.S. national science plan for address- mate has changed naturally in the past, and the mechanisms ing climate variability and change on decade-to-century time involved, our ability to interpret any future change will be scales. The manifestation of these plans would contribute to significantly confounded and our ability to predict future the international effort while clearly defining and articulat- change severely curtailed. ing our own particular national scientific interests. This led Recognizing this gap, the Climate Research Committee to the formation of the NRC panel on Climate Variability on of the National Research Council’s Board on Atmospheric Decade-to-Century Time Scales (the Dec-Cen panel). Sciences and Climate, organized a workshop in 1992 involv- The NRC’s Climate Research Committee (CRC) is the ing the world’s most prominent climate researchers, to as- U.S. national committee to the WCRP. The Dec-Cen panel, sess the state of understanding of natural climate variability. as well as the complementary Global Ocean-Atmosphere- The workshop focused on natural climate change that occurs Land System (GOALS) and Global Energy and Water Cycle slowly, sometimes remaining almost imperceptible for many Experiment (GEWEX) panels (addressing shorter time years, decades, or even a century. These “decade-to-century” scales and key processes), were established under the CRC (dec-cen) time scales are the same ones over which anthro- to interface with the WCRP and CLIVAR organizational vii viii PREFACE structures. However, consistent with the USGCRP’s broad representatives also participated in national workshops, ma- perspective regarding global change, the Dec-Cen panel not jor conferences, and discussion groups organized by a vari- only addressed the physics-oriented CLIVAR objectives (the ety of specific disciplinary groups for the purpose of identi- primary focus of WCRP projects), but also the bio- fying and articulating the central dec-cen issues. The geochemical aspects critical to a full understanding of the outcome of these efforts resulted in the development of the carbon cycle as well as paleoclimatology. The paleoclimate Science Strategy presented in this document for the advance- records are invaluable in their ability for providing a long ment of our understanding of climate variability and change record of natural climate change prior to the introduction of on decade-to-century time scales. anthropogenic gases to the atmosphere, among other things. Understanding, predicting, and detecting future climate In addition to its primary task of preparing an overall variability and change is an immense problem; it will not be guiding document for a national research strategy, the Dec- solved by anything short of a well-focused coherent interna- Cen panel was tasked with providing scientific leadership tional scientific assault on the problem. This report repre- and oversight for national programs on decade-to-century- sents those scientific issues and infrastructure considerations scale climate variability; developing a strategy for monitor- required to most effectively advance our understanding of ing, modeling, and assessing the forcing and state of the cli- climate variability and change, on decade-to-century time matic system on decade-to-century time scales; reporting on scales, with an emphasis toward more confidently predicting our understanding of, and ability to predict, natural and an- future climate conditions and detecting climate change. The thropogenic climate variations on these time scales; serving report emphasizes U.S. national interests, while recognizing as a formal two-way channel for apprising the scientific com- the global nature of the problem. Together with the interna- munity and agencies of each other’s needs and resources; tional efforts, as well as other national efforts addressing and fostering increased communication and interaction phenomena dominating climate change on different time across disciplines. scales, or other particular aspects of the climate problem, This report completes the primary task of the panel of these plans collectively represent an overall holistic perspec- preparing a national research strategy. To coordinate the na- tive required to attack this problem. tional and international science plans, the Dec-Cen panel Clearly, this document could not have been completed worked closely with the international community involved without the considerable input from members of the science in developing the international science plan. Through an ag- community, industrial community, and federal agencies. In gressive outreach program the panel worked to assure that fact, the list of significant contributions is so long that it was the opinions of the U.S. climate community were accurately deemed impractical to attempt to explicitly list all of those represented. Input was solicited by inviting prominent cli- individuals who contributed to this document. Therefore, mate scientists to present their views to the panel, through the Dec-Cen panel would like to extend a collective thanks discussions with federal agency and industrial representa- and general acknowledgment to the entire community for its tives, and through broad-based e-mail solicitations. Panel active involvement in this task. Douglas G. Martinson Chair, Dec-Cen Panel Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspec- tives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Re- port Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible, and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evi- dence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Russ E. Davis, University of California, San Diego W. Lawrence Gates, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory George M. Hornberger, University of Virginia, Charlottesville Upmanu Lall, Utah State University Gerald A. Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research Richard S. Stolarski, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center John M. Wallace, University of Washington John E. Walsh, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Warren A. Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research In addition, we appreciate the post-review material and comments from Russ Davis, Rob- ert Dickinson, Upmanu Lall, and Peter Niiler that helped to provide a more balanced discussion in some key areas. While the individuals listed above have provided construc- tive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. ix The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, nent members of appropriate professions in the examination self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the fur- Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National therance of science and technology and to their use for the Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initia- it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that tive, to identify issues of medical care, research, and educa- requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and tion. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the Medicine. National Academy of Sciences. The National Research Council was organized by the The National Academy of Engineering was established in National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sci- community of science and technology with the Academy’s ences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its government. Functioning in accordance with general poli- members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences cies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the responsibility for advising the federal government. The the principal operating agency of both the National Acad- National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- emy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages in providing services to the government, the public, and the education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- scientific and engineering communities. The Council is ad- ments of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the ministered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of National Academy of Engineering. Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of emi- Research Council. x
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