CRIMINAL & BEHAVIORAL PROFILING 2 One more for Kai, Maddie, Darya, and Shannon, each one a profile in goodness, intelligence, wit, and beauty. 3 CRIMINAL & BEHAVIORAL PROFILING Curt R. Bartol Anne M. Bartol 4 FOR INFORMATION: SAGE Publications, Inc. 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 E-mail: [email protected] SAGE Publications Ltd. 1 Oliver’s Yard 55 City Road London EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd. B 1/I 1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044 India SAGE Publications Asia-Pacific Pte. Ltd. 3 Church Street #10-04 Samsung Hub Singapore 049483 Publisher: Jerry Westby Publishing Associate: MaryAnn Vail Production Editor: Libby Larson Copy Editor: Teresa Herlinger Typesetter: C&M Digitals (P) Ltd Proofreader: Theresa Kay Indexer: Judy Hunt Cover Designer: Anupama Krishnan Marketing Manager: Terra Schultz Permissions Editor: Karen Ehrmann Copyright © 2013 by SAGE Publications, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bartol, Curt R. Criminal & behavioral profiling / Curt R. Bartol. 5 p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4129-8308-2 (pbk.) 1. Criminal behavior, Prediction of. 2. Criminal profilers 3. Criminal investigation. I. Bartol, Anne M. II. Title. HV8073.5.B368 2013 364.3—dc23 2012019296 This book is printed on acid-free paper. 12 13 14 15 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 6 Brief Contents Preface Chapter 1. Introduction Chapter 2. Crime Scene Profiling Chapter 3. Scientific Approaches to Crime Scene Profiling Chapter 4. Geographic Profiling and Mapping Chapter 5. Profiling Applied to Specific Crimes Chapter 6. Psychological Profiling: A Focus on Threat and Risk Assessment Chapter 7. Suspect-Based Profiling Chapter 8. Reconstructive Psychological Evaluation: The Psychological Autopsy Chapter 9. Profiling in Court References Photo Credits Index About the Authors 7 Detailed Contents Preface Chapter 1. Introduction Early Accounts of Profiling Origins of Modern Profiling The Mad Bomber Case FOCUS 1.1 METESKY AND THE MEDIA The Brussel Legacy FOCUS 1.2 BARNUM STATEMENTS The Boston Strangler The Five Areas of Behavioral Profiling Crime Scene Profiling Geographic Profiling Psychological Profiling Suspect-Based Profiling Equivocal Death Analysis Summary and Conclusions Chapter 2. Crime Scene Profiling Early FBI Profiling Origins The Behavioral Science Unit and the NCAVC FOCUS 2.1 NATIONAL CENTER FOR ANALYSIS OF VIOLENT CRIMES (NCAVC) Two Seminal Articles TABLE 2.1 PROFILE CHARACTERISTICS OF ORGANIZED VS. DISORGANIZED OFFENDERS AS CLASSIFIED BY THE FBI IN 1985 TABLE 2.2 CRIME SCENE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ORGANIZED AND DISORGANIZED OFFENDERS AS CLASSIFIED BY THE FBI The Douglas and Ressler Interviews Further Development of the O/D Dichotomy The Crime Classification Manual FOCUS 2.2 CULT MURDER Crime Scene Profiling Today Profiling Terminology Case Linkage Additional Research on Crime Scene Profiling Typologies and Profiling 8 Clinical Versus Actuarial Profiling Training and Characteristics of Profilers Accuracy and Usefulness of Crime Scene Profiles FOCUS 2.3 WILL NEW ADVANCES MAKE PROFILING OBSOLETE? The Psychological and Cognitive Pitfalls of Crime Scene Profiling Memory and Cognitive Biases Confirmation Bias Self-Serving Bias Fundamental Attribution Error Summary and Conclusions Chapter 3. Scientific Approaches to Crime Scene Profiling Misconceptions About Profiling TABLE 3.1 MISCONCEPTIONS AND REALITY WITH RESPECT TO PROFILING Making the Case for Scientific Profiling The Beginnings of Scientific Crime Scene Profiling Origins of Investigative Psychology FOCUS 3.1 SEARCHING FOR THE RAILWAY RAPIST Investigative Psychology Today Clinical Versus Actuarial Profiling Revisited Police Psychology Versus Profiling Research Questions The Behavioral Features Distinguishing Between Offenders and Crimes Inferring Characteristics Linking Crimes FOCUS 3.2 THE VIOLENT CRIME LINKAGE ANALYSIS SYSTEM (VICLAS) Psychological Signatures The Person–Situation Debate The A → C Equation FOCUS 3.3 WHAT’S IN A PROFILE REPORT? Behavioral Investigative Analysts in the United Kingdom Contemporary Theories in Criminology TABLE 3.2 IMPLICATIONS OF CRIME THEORIES FOR PROFILING Developmental Pathways in Offending Patterns Application to Profiling Developmental and Maturation Changes in Offenders Application to Profiling Deficient Interpersonal Skills and Peer Rejection Application to Profiling 9 Offending Patterns of Criminal Psychopaths Application to Profiling Potential Error Problems in Scientific Profiling Heuristics Representative Heuristic Errors Base Rate Fallacy (or Neglect) Expressions of Uncertainty Summary and Conclusions Chapter 4. Geographic Profiling and Mapping Geographic Mapping FIGURE 4.1 CRIME MAP OF AUTO THEFT INCIDENTS IN AN URBAN AREA History of Crime Mapping Influences of Environmental Criminology Contemporary Crime Mapping Geographic Profiling FIGURE 4.2 COMPUTER-GENERATED GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE MAP Theoretical Foundations and Early History Routine Activity Theory FIGURE 4.3 AWARENESS SPACE PATHS Rational Choice Theory History of Geographic Profiling Geographic Profiling Software Measures of Accuracy FIGURE 4.4 ILLUSTRATION OF PROFILE ERROR DISTANCE Key Concepts in Geographic Profiling Distance Decay FIGURE 4.5 DISTANCE DECAY FIGURE 4.6 ILLUSTRATION OF BUFFER ZONE Mental Maps The Circle or Centrality Theory FIGURE 4.7 CENTRALITY OFFENDING PATTERN OF SERIAL RAPIST FIGURE 4.8 MARAUDER AND COMMUTER OFFENDING PATTERNS FIGURE 4.9 WINDSHIELD WIPER EFFECT Geographic Hunting Patterns The Basic Assumptions of Geographic Profiling Case Linkage Linkage as a Function of Multiple Offenses Relatively Even Distribution or Wide Dispersion of Offenses Single, Stable Base of Operations 10