Credit Engineering for Bankers This page intentionally left blank Credit Engineering for Bankers A Practical Guide for Bank Lending, 2nd Edition Morton Glantz and Johnathan Mun Amsterdam(cid:129)Boston(cid:129)Heidelberg(cid:129)London(cid:129)NewYork(cid:129)Oxford Paris(cid:129)SanDiego(cid:129)SanFrancisco(cid:129)Singapore(cid:129)Sydney(cid:129)Tokyo AcademicPressisanimprintofElsevier AcademicPressisanimprintofElsevier 30CorporateDrive,Suite400,Burlington,MA01803,USA 525BStreet,Suite1900,SanDiego,CA92101-4495,USA 84Theobald’sRoad,LondonWC1X8RR,UK Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,TheNetherlands Firstedition2003 Secondedition2011 Copyright(cid:1)2011ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystemortransmittedinany formorbyanymeanselectronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwisewithoutthe priorwrittenpermissionofthepublisher PermissionsmaybesoughtdirectlyfromElsevier’sScience&TechnologyRightsDepartment inOxford,UK:phone(+44)(0)1865843830;fax(+44)(0)1865853333;email:permissions@ elsevier.com.AlternativelyyoucansubmityourrequestonlinebyvisitingtheElsevierwebsite athttp://elsevier.com/locate/permissions,andselectingObtainingpermissiontouseElsevier material Notice No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or propertyasamatterofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuseoroperation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. Because ofrapidadvancesinthemedicalsciences,inparticular,independentverificationofdiagnoses anddrugdosagesshouldbemade LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Creditengineeringforbankers:apracticalguideforbanklending/editedbyMortonGlantzand JohnathanMun. p.cm. ISBN978-0-12-378585-5 1.Bankloans–Management.2.Credit–Management.3.Asset-liabilitymanagement. 4.Financialriskmanagement.5.Bankmanagement.I.Glantz,Morton.II.Mun,Johnathan. HG1641.C6652011 332.1’753–dc22 2010033503 BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN:978-0-12-378585-5 ForinformationonallAcademicPresspublicationsvisit ourwebsiteatbooks.elsevier.com PrintedandboundintheUSA 111213 1098765432 Modelsdiscussedinchapters5,6,10,11,20arelocatedonthecompanionwebsiteto this bookand can belocated at: www.ElsevierDirect.com Modelsdiscussedinchapters7,8,12,14,15,16,17,18canbedownloadedfromthe RealOptionsValuationwebsite:http://www.realoptionsvaluation.com/download.html for the software applicationsand models, and http://www.realoptionsvaluation.com/ creditengineeringbook.htmlfor the software licenses andothermodels This page intentionally left blank Contents Foreword xi Introduction xvii About The Authors xxiii Part One New Approaches to Fundamental Analysis 1 1 Introduction to Loan DecisionMaking:The Prism Model 3 2 International Financial Reporting Standards 17 3 Multivariate Ratio Analysis 37 4 CreditAnalysis ofSeasonalBusinesses: AnIntegrated Approach 61 5 Asset-basedLending 79 6 Cash Flow Analysis 99 7 APrimeron Quantitative Risk Analysis 129 8 Projections and Risk Assessment 185 9 Sustainable Growthand CreditRiskManagement 237 10 Specialized Lending Risk Rating 253 11 Recognition,Diagnosis, and Responseto TroubledLoans 269 12 Strategic Real Options Analysis:Managing Risk Through Flexibility 295 viii Contents Part Two Credit Administration 309 13 CapitalAdequacy 311 14 Quantitative Creditand MarketRisk Analysis 333 15 Portfolio Optimization andManagement ofDefaultRisk 377 16 Options Valuation 409 17 ExoticOptions, Options Engineering, and Credit Risk 431 18 Creditand Debt Valuation 453 19 Building Integrated ExposureSystems 469 20 Building Risk-Adjusted PricingModels 489 Index 507 Dedication This book is dedicated to my grandson Landon Kissell, my greatest treasure in life, mybest friend forever. – Morton Glantz To mywife Pennyandson Jayden, for their unconditional loveand support. –JohnathanMun
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