Conflict and Complexity: Countering Terrorism, Insurgency, Ethnic and Regional Violence

294 Pages·2015·7.827 MB·English

by  Philip Vos Fellman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Ali A. Minai (eds.)

Understanding Complex Systems
Philip Vos Fellman
Yaneer Bar-Yam
Ali A. Minai Editors
Confl ict and
Complexity
Countering Terrorism, Insurgency, Ethnic
and Regional Violence
Springer Complexity
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Henry Abarbanel, Institute for Nonlinear Science, University of California, San Diego, USA
Dan Braha, New England Complex Systems Institute and University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, USA
Péter Érdi, Center for Complex Systems Studies, Kalamazoo College, USA and Hungarian Academy of
Sciences, Budapest, Hungary
Karl Friston, Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, UK
Hermann Haken, Center of Synergetics, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
Viktor Jirsa, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifi que (CNRS), Universit’e de la M’editerran’ee,
Marseille, France
Janusz Kacprzyk, System Research, Polish Academy of Sciences,Warsaw, Poland
Kunihiko Kaneko, Research Center for Complex Systems Biology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Scott Kelso, Center for Complex Systems and Brain Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton,
USA
Markus Kirkilionis, Mathematics Institute and Centre for Complex Systems, University of Warwick,
Coventry, UK
Jürgen Kurths, Nonlinear Dynamics Group, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Andrzej Nowak, Department of Psychology, Warsaw University, Poland
Linda Reichl, Center for Complex Quantum Systems, University of Texas, Austin, USA
Peter Schuster, Theoretical Chemistry and Structural Biology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Frank Schweitzer, System Design, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Didier Sornette, Entrepreneurial Risk, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Stefan Thurner, Section for Science of Complex Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Understanding Complex Systems
Founding Editor: J.A. Scott Kelso
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Philip Vos Fellman (cid:129) Yaneer Bar-Yam
Ali A. Minai
Editors
Confl ict and Complexity
Countering Terrorism, Insurgency,
Ethnic and Regional Violence
Editors
Philip Vos Fellman Yaneer Bar-Yam
American Military University New England Complex Systems Institute
Charles Town , WV , USA Cambridge , MA , USA
Ali A. Minai
University of Cincinnati
Cincinnati , OH , USA
This volume is part of the NECSI Studies on Complexity collection.
ISSN 1860-0832 ISSN 1860-0840 (electronic)
ISBN 978-1-4939-1704-4 ISBN 978-1-4939-1705-1 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4939-1705-1
Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London
Library of Congress Control Number: 2014954129
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Foreword
T his volume represents a considerable investment of time, energy, and effort (not to
mention patience) on the part of the many authors involved, but above all by Yaneer
Bar-Yam and Ali Minai, with whom I began discussing the project at the sixth inter-
national conference on complex systems in 2006. While it took us a bit of time to
actually move the project to completion (approximately 7 years), that time has been
used to create a volume that is quite literally the fi rst and only work of its kind.
There have been other books which contain pieces of the puzzle of approaching
terrorism with the tools of complex adaptive systems research. However, nowhere
has there been such a comprehensive volume in which authors from such a wide
variety of disciplines (political science, economics, history, sociology, geography,
psychology, mathematics, computer science, and physics, to name just the most
prominent disciplines drawn upon here) bring their skills to bear on the problems of
terrorism, insurgency, battlefi eld warfare, and ethnic and regional violence.
A bove and beyond this diversity, there is a unity of participation across compa-
nies, countries, and institutions which really marks this book as a fi rst. Just a few of
the participating organizations in this volume, which was organized under the
umbrella of the New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI), include the
Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS) and its
Military Applications Society (MAS), the Virginia Modeling and Simulation Center
(VMASC), American Military University (AMU), and its parent organization the
American Public University System (APUS) as well as the Metropolitan College of
Boston University. Leaders in mathematical modeling, computational design,
defense logistics, and military operations research have all come together to create
a novel book combining, for the fi rst time, both the “hard” and “soft” approaches of
complexity science to take what I can only characterize as a giant step in bringing
the full array of complex systems tools to bear on the problems of terrorism, insur-
gency, irregular warfare, cyber-warfare, and ethnic and regional violence.
I have for many years been an admirer of Dr. Bar-Yam’s previous volumes, The
Dynamics of Complex Systems, and Making Things Work. I can only hope that this
volume, to which Dr. Bar-Yam has made a very substantial contribution, not only in
terms of his fi ve chapters which comprise Part III of the book, but also in his
v
vi Foreword
unwavering support for the entire project across the 7 years which it has taken to
bring all the participants together, will stand equally tall with those volumes in our
effort to make things work in combating terrorism, insurgency, irregular confl ict,
and ethnic and regional violence.
Finally, I would like to thank all the authors for their insightful contributions to
this volume, and Michelle Lim for helping immensely with the editing process.
Manchester, NH, USA Philip Vos Fellman
Pref ace
T his volume presents a complex systems approach to analyzing, modeling, under-
standing, and combating terrorism and confl ict, and is a unique and timely contribu-
tion to a topic of critical importance. Much of the effort in this area has used—and
continues to use—classical methods based on intelligence, statistical and game-
theoretic modeling, and military operations. The need for other methods has become
increasingly clear. Recognizing and confl ict, at least in part, as a social phenomenon
suggests that methods that have succeeded in analyzing other social systems may
also work well in this case. This has led to the application of network modeling and
analysis to terrorism and confl ict. Other complex systems concepts such as chaotic
dynamics, self-o rganization, emergent patterns, and fractals have also been applied,
generating important insights. This book reviews and discusses these efforts.
P art I of the book, comprising the fi rst six chapters, focuses on theoretical ideas.
Chapter 1 by Fellman is a comprehensive overview of the issues and methods in the
study of terrorism, and of complex systems approaches that have been used. It can,
therefore, be seen as an extended introduction to the volume. Chapter 2 by Mesjasz
discusses the complex systems methods that are relevant to the study of terrorism
and provides several specifi c ways in which they can be applied. Chapter 3 by
Mastors focuses on the psychology of terrorism, discussing the motivations and
characteristics of terrorists, and the processes that lead to their recruitment into the
activity. Chapter 4 by Upal describes an agent-based approach to modeling social
identity dynamics, which is crucial to both understanding terrorists’ actions and
countering their recruitment methods. Chapter 5 by Hartley describes a comprehen-
sive model called DIME/PMESII for analyzing possible counter-terrorism strate-
gies using a state defi ned in terms of political, military, economic, social, information
and infrastructure (PMESII) variables, operated on by diplomatic, information,
military and economic (DIME) means. Finally, in Chap. 6 , Ray describes how a
distributed, complex systems-based logistics approach may thwart terrorists more
effectively than a traditional centralized one.
The chapters in Part II of the book describe applications and case studies based
on complex systems approaches. Chapter 7 by Passman presents the extension of a
traditional model of combat attrition to one based on fractals, which better
vii
viii Preface
encompasses all the dimensions of modern warfare. Chapter 8 by Fellman, Clemens,
Wright, Post, and Dadmun shows how the decision dynamics of terrorist networks
can be understood using a fi tness landscape approach. Chapter 9 by Ezell and
Parnell provides a detailed comparative analysis of six specifi c methods used for
risk analysis, including logic trees and game-theoretic methods. Chapter 10 by
Fellman, Frutos, Thanakijsombat, Teekasap, and Schear uses a quantitative approach
to explore whether there is a “learning curve” in the activity of maritime piracy.
Chapter 1 1 by Jacobs, Chitkushev, and Zlateva looks at identity and anonymity in
cyber-warfare.
F inally, the fi ve chapters in Part III go well beyond the narrow confi nes of terrorism
to look at confl ict in general—often with terrorism as a subtext. Such confl ict may
arise through direct combat, but also increasingly as a result of socioeconomic and
environmental factors. Climate change, water scarcity, overpopulation, ethnic rival-
ries, religious friction, and political turmoil are all producing confl icts in many parts
of the world—notably in Africa and the Middle East. Chapter 1 2 by Rutherford et al.
discusses a theory to predict where ethnic violence may occur, using the former
Yugoslavia, India, and Switzerland as examples. Chapter 13 by Lagi, Bertrand, and
Bar-Yam considers the role of food prices in producing political instability, identify-
ing a price threshold at which instability may be triggered. Chapter 14 by Bar-Yam,
Lagi, and Bar-Yam continues this theme, looking at the role of food prices in trigger-
ing unrest in South Africa and considering what it might portend in other places
around the world. In Chapter 15, Gros, Gard-Murray, and Bar-Yam look at rioting
triggered by food prices in Yemen, a country with an active terrorist presence. Finally,
Chapter 16 by Gard-Murray and Bar-Yam looks at the case of the Arab Spring from a
complex systems and evolutionary perspective, hypothesizing that there is signifi cant
danger of reversion to autocracy—a prediction being borne out by events already.
As a whole, this volume provides the reader with a broad and diverse view of
how complex systems thinking is helping in the analysis and mitigation of terror-
ism, confl ict, and upheaval. While this book cannot claim to have included all sig-
nifi cant efforts in this area, these chapters and their bibliographies will guide the
reader to almost everything of signifi cance.
Cincinnati, OH, USA Ali A. Minai
Contents
Part I The Theoretical Background
1 Modeling Terrorist Networks: The Second Decade ............................. 3
Philip Vos Fellman
2 Complex Systems Studies and Terrorism ............................................. 35
Czeslaw Mesjasz
3 The Psychology of Terrorism ................................................................. 73
Elena Mastors
4 A Framework for Agent-Based Social Simulations
of Social Identity Dynamics .................................................................... 89
M. Afzal Upal
5 DIME/PMESII Models ........................................................................... 111
Dean S. Hartley III
6 Net-Centric Logistics: Complex Systems Science
Aims at Moving Targets .......................................................................... 137
Thomas Ray
Part II Applications and Case Studies
7 A Fractal Concept of War ...................................................................... 149
Maurice Passman
8 Disrupting Terrorist Networks: A Dynamic Fitness
Landscape Approach .............................................................................. 165
Philip Vos Fellman, Jonathan P. Clemens, Roxana Wright,
Jonathan Vos Post, and Matthew Dadmun
ix