Computers and Economic Planning: The Soviet Experience

238 Pages·1980·4.009 MB·English

by  Martin Cave

>
Computers
and economic
planning:the
Soviet experience
M.CAVE
ComputersandEconomicPlanningprovides
adetailedaccountoftheimpactthat
computertechnologyhashadoneconomic
planningintheSovietUnionoverthelast
twentyyears.Itdescribesthegrowing
interestinnewmethodsofplanningthathas
arisenintheUSSRandtheattemptsmade
bytheSovietauthoritiestointegrate
computersandmathematicalmethodsinto
thebroadframeworkofeconomicplanning
andmanagement.Thestudythenfocuseson
theactualuseofcomputersinfourmajor
typesoforganizationsintheSoviet
economicsystem,andassessesthepotential
ofthenewmethods,theextenttowhichthis
potentialhasbeenrealized,andthefactors
thathaveencouragedorimpededthe
effectiveuseofcomputersineconomic
planning.Finally,thebookconsidersthe
likelyfutureroleofcomputersinthegeneral
developmentoftheSovieteconomyandits
planningsystem.
Asarecentanddetailedaccountofthe
contributionofcomputerstoimproving
planning,ComputersandEconomic
Planningshouldbeofinteresttospecialists
intheSovieteconomyandtoanyonewithan
interesteitherintheoperationof
centrally-plannedeconomiesorinthe
impactofcomputersontheeconomic
system.
COMPUTERS AND
ECONOMIC PLANNING:
THE SOVIET EXPERIENCE
SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN STUDIES
EditorialBoard
JOHN BARBER, ARCHIE BROWN, P. HANSON, M. KASER,
DAVID LANE, MARY MCAULEY, A. NOVE, A. PRAVDA,
G. H. N. SETON-WATSON
The NationalAssociation forSoviet and East European
Studies exists for the purpose of promoting study and
researchonthesocialsciencesastheyrelatetotheSoviet
Unionand thecountriesofEastern Europe.The
Monograph Series is intended to promote the publication of
works presenting substantial and original research in
theeconomics,politics, sociologyand modem historyof
theUSSRandEasternEurope.
COMPUTERS AND
ECONOMIC PLANNING:
THE SOVIET EXPERIENCE
MARTIN CAVE
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
CAMBRIDGE
LONDON (cid:0) NEW YORK NEW ROCHELLE
MELBOURNE(cid:0)SYDNEY
PublishedbythePressSyndicateoftheUniversityofCambridge
ThePittBuilding,TrumpingtonStreet.CambridgeCB2 IRP
32East57thStreet.NewYork.NY 10022.USA
296BeaconsfieldParade.MiddlePark.Melbourne3206,Australia
©CambridgeUniversityPress1980
Firstpublished1980
PrintedinGreatBritain
attheUniversityPress,Cambridge
LibraryofCongressCataloguinginPublicationData
Cave,Manin.
Computersandeconomicplanning,theSoviet
experience.
(SovietandEastEuropeanstudies)
Bibliography:p.
Includesindex.
I. Russia-Economicpolicy-1966-1970-Data
processing.2.Planning Dataprocessing.
3. Industrialmanagement Russia Dataprocessing.
I.Title.II.Series.
HC33623C38 338.947 79-7659
ISBN 0521 22617 I
CONTENTS
Preface vii
Glossary i*
1 Thehistoricalbackground 1
1 Introduction 1
2 Earlyproposals 3
3 The 1966decreeanditsconsequences 6
4 TheemergenceofOGAS 12
5 Theninthfive-yearplan 15
2 Theimpactofcomputersonplanningandmanagement:
someapproaches 24
1 Theplanningalgorithmsapproach 26
2 Thecontributionofinformationtheory 41
3 Practice 45
3 ComputersinGosplan 54
1 ThedevelopmentofASPR 54
2 SomemodelsproposedasabasisforASPR 59
3 Gosplan(cid:0)sapproachtoASPR 64
4 ASPRintherepublics 77
5 Informationforplanning:linkswithASNandASGS 79
6 Assessment 84
4 ComputersinGossnab 88
1 Gossnab'sroleinthemanagementprocess 88
2 ThedevelopmentofASUMTS 94
3 Amathematicalmodelofsupplyplanning 101
4 AutomatedmanagementsystemsintheSGSS 106
5 ASUMTSintheeconomicmanagementsystem 117
5 Ministry-levelautomatedmanagementsystems(OASU) 120
1 ThedevelopmentofOASU 121
2 TheinformationandcomputingsystemsofanOASU 127
vi Contents
3 Thefunctionalsub-systemsofanOASU 134
4 TheimpactofanOASU 148
6 Automatedsystemsofenterprisemanagement(ASUP) 153
1 ThegrowthofASUP 153
2 HoweffectiveareASUP? 161
3 Anoteoncomputersinthecontroloftechnologicalprocesses 167
7 Conclusion 170
1 Theeconomicreturntocomputersinmanagement 170
2 Howwellhastheprogrammebeenplannedandimplemented? 174
3 TheimpactofautomatedmanagementsystemsonSoviet
planningandmanagement 179
Appendix 1 TheUnion-WideProductClassifier 185
AppendixII Sovietcomputertechnology 189
AppendixIII SomenotesoncomparisonswiththeUnited
Kingdom 192
Notes 199
Bibliography 204
Index 221
PREFACE
This book describes the effect which the application ofcomputer
technologyhashadonthesystemofeconomicplanningand
management in the Soviet Union. The potential impact ofcomputers on
economic planning is enormous. To appreciate this one only has
to recall one of the arguments made in the debate in the 1930s
on the feasibility ofcentral planning. It wasasserted then that an
efficient allocation of resources in a centrally planned economy
was inconceivable, because such an allocation would require the
solution of 'millions of equations'. At that time, of course, no
electronic computers were available. Today the situation is quite
different and the computational objection would have much less
force.
Interestingly, Oscar Lange, the author ofthe famous
(cid:0)competitive solution(cid:0) ofthe planning problem in the 1930s, turned in his
lastarticle,published in 1967,tothepotentialimpactofcomputers
on economic planning. There he reinterpreted the market as a
(cid:0)computersuigeneriswhichservestosolveasystemofsimultaneous
equations' by the tätonnement process, noting that the solution
mechanism operated not via a physical process, asin an analogue
computer,butbyasocialprocess. Hethenwentontocomparethe
merits of the (cid:0)two instruments ofeconomic accounting(cid:0) available
tomanagersinsocialisteconomies,theelectroniccomputerandthe
market(Lange(1967),p. 159).
In hisarticle Lange wasconcerned with the potential impact of
computerswhen they had beenfullyassimilated intoplanningand
when technical difficulties had been overcome. The aim of this
book, incontrast, istoestablish indetail whatchangescomputers
have brought to the actual operation of the Soviet economy, in
which neither ofthesetwoconditions has been fulfilled. We begin
byexaminingthe historyoftheSovieteffortstousecomputersfor
management purposes. The second chapter gives an account of
viii Preface
alternative basic approaches to adapting the planning system to
take advantage of computers. This is followed by four chapters
describingtheuseofcomputersatfourmajororganisationsorlevels
of industrial management: the State Planning Commission
(Gosplan); theStateCommittee forSupply (Gossnab); ministries; and
enterprises and production associations (ob'edineniya). A final
chapteroffersanoverallassessmentandsomeconclusions.
Thebook isorganised so thata readerwithageneral interest in
the Soviet economy can get a fairly self-contained account ofthe
background and implications of Soviet work in computer-based
planningsystemsbylookingatChapters1and7.Thereader
interested in the more abstract aspects of economic planning may find
Chapters2and3ofmost interest.Theremainingchaptersdescribe
theimpactofcomputersonparticularorganisationsandthespecial
problemsofmodellingandimplementationencounteredthere.
ThematerialsforthisstudyarelargelySovietpublications
supplemented byavisit totheSoviet Union in 1973. Soviet sources have
seemed to me to be relatively open and frank in discussing the
successes and failures ofcomputer use. However. I recognise that
theyareno substitutefordirect access topractitionersin thefield,
whichwasnotavailableto me. I amaware, moreover, thatan
outsidercancaptureonly imperfectly theatmosphereofanambitious
programmesuchastheonedescribedhere.
Alargenumberofpeoplehavehelpedmetocompletethisstudy.
I am especially indebted to Francis Seton of Oxford University
who supervised the thesis from which thepresent book isderived.
Most ofthe research wasdoneat theCentreforRussian and East
European Studies at Birmingham University, and I owe a great
dealtotheencouragementand helpofmanyindividualsworkingat
orattachedtotheCentre,inparticularR.W.Davies(thenDirector
oftheCentre),PhilipHanson,JulianCooper,andChrisSiemaszko.
The help of the Centre(cid:0)s librarian. Jenny Brine, was invaluable.
I am also grateful to Paul Hare ofStirling University for reading
successive drafts of many chapters. Mrs C. Newnham typed the
manuscriptwithhercustomaryspeedandefficiency.
GLOSSARY
Glossaryoftermsusedinconnectionwithautomatedplanning
andmanagementsystemsintheUSSR
ABD (Avtomatizirovannyibank dannykh) A bank ofdata stored in
acomputer.TsSUisdevelopingsuchabankaspartofASGS
(q.v).
AICJS (Avtomatizirovannayainformatsionno-upravlayushchayasistema
standartizartsiiimetrologiiGosstandartaSSSRjTheautomated
systemfortheStateCommitteeonStandards.
ASFR (Avtomatizirovannayasistemafinansovykhresursov) The
automatedsystemcoveringtheactivityoftheMinistryofFinance.
ASGS (Avtomatizirovannaya sistema gosudarstvennoi statistiki) The
automatedsystemdealingwiththefunctionsofTsSU.
ASN (Avtomatizirovannaya sistema normativov) The automated
system with the function ofcollectingand preparingdata on
normatives (input coefficients) of various kinds for use in
planning. Though it is sometimes referred to as a subsystem
of ASPR (qv.). ASN also has connections with enterprises
andministries.
ASOI (Avtomatizirovannayasistemaobrabotkiinformatsiipotsenam)
Isen Theautomatedsystemwhichprocessesinformationusedbythe
StateCommitteeonPricesoftheUSSRCouncilofMinisters.
ASPR (Avtomatizirovannayasistemaplanovykh raschetov) The
automated system designed to assist Gosplan USSR and Union
RepublicGosplansintheperformanceofplanningfunctions.
ASLI MTS (Avtomatizirovannaya sistema upravleniya material'no-tekhni-
cheskym snabzheniem) The automated system which covers
theactivityofGossnab.
ASUNT (Avtomatizirovannaya sistema upravleniya nauchno-tekhni-
cheskymprogressom)Theautomated system dealing with the
planningandcontrolofresearchanddevelopmentattheState
CommitteeforScienceandTechnology.
ASUO (Avtomatizirovannayasistemaupravleniyaob'edineniem)These
systemswillberesponsibleforthemanagementof(production)
oh'edineniya.
ASUP (Avtomatizirovannayasistemaupravleniyapredpriyatiem)These
systems are responsible for the management functions of
individualenterprises.