Computer-Based Environmental Management (Vom Wasser)

311 Pages·2003·3.03 MB·English

by  Ralf Seppelt

Titelei_Seppelt 30.04.2007 15:28 Uhr Seite 3
Ralf Seppelt
Computer-Based Environmental Management
Titelei_Seppelt 30.04.2007 15:28 Uhr Seite 1
Titelei_Seppelt 30.04.2007 15:28 Uhr Seite 1
Ralf Seppelt
Computer-Based Environmental
Management
Titelei_Seppelt 30.04.2007 15:28 Uhr Seite 2
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Titelei_Seppelt 30.04.2007 15:28 Uhr Seite 3
Ralf Seppelt
Computer-Based Environmental Management
Titelei_Seppelt 30.04.2007 15:28 Uhr Seite 4
The Authors This book was carefully produced. Never-
theless, author and publisher do not warrant
Dr. Ralf Seppelt the information contained therein to be free
Institute of Geoecology of errors. Readers are advised to keep in
Technical University Braunschweig mind that statements, data, illustrations,
Langer Kamp 19c procedural details or other items may
38106 Braunschweig inadvertently be inaccurate.
Germany
Library of Congress Card No. applied for
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication
Data: A catalogue record for this book is
available from the British Library.
Bibliographic information published by
Die Deutsche Bibliothek
Die Deutsche Bibliothek lists this publication
in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie;
detailed bibliographic data is available in the
Internet at <http://dnb.ddb.de>.
© 2003 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co.
KGaA, Weinheim
All rights reserved (including those of trans-
lation into other languages). No part of this
book may be reproduced in any form – by
photoprinting, microfilm, or any other
means – nor transmitted or translated into
machine language without written permis-
sion from the publishers. Registered names,
trademarks, etc. used in this book, even
when not specifically marked as such, are not
be considered unprotected by law.
printed in the Federal Republic of Germany
printed on acid-free paper
Printing Druckhaus Darmstadt GmbH,
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Bookbinding Litges & Dopf Buchbinderei
GmbH, Heppenheim
ISBN 3-527-30732-X
Foreword
Asanactivedesigner,user,andteacherofmodelsandmodeling,I’malwaysonthe
lookoutforbettertools. RalfSeppelt’sbookisauniqueandwelcomeadditiontothat
toolbox. Itis uniqueinits comprehensiveintegrationofthetheoryandpracticeof
environmentalmodelingandmanagement.
Because of this integration, the book will appeal to three broad audiences and be
useful:
(1) asanupperlevelorgraduatecoursetextinenvironmentalmodelingandman-
agement;
(2) as a guide for practitioners to get up to speed on the latest developmentsin
computermodelingoftheenvironment;
(3) asaguideforenvironmentalmanagerstogetagoodhandleonthelatestdevelop-
mentsinmodelingandhowtheycouldbeusefulinmakingbetterenvironmental
decisions.
Asateacherofenvironmentalmodeling,I’vebeensearchingformanyyearsforthe
perfecttexttouse incourses. Thereareseveralbooksouttherethatareeachvery
good in their own way, but which cover only some of the issues needed to get a
good,comprehensivegraspofmodelingandtheusesofmodelinginenvironmental
management. It’s also hard to find a text that is at just the right level — not so
generalastobeuselessyetnotsotechnicalastobeusefulonlytoasmall,specialized
v
vi FOREWORD
audience. My search has ended with the publicationof Ralf Seppelt’s book and I
intendtouseitasacoretextinmodelingcourses.
As a practitioner of modeling as a method to achieve an integrated understanding
ofcomplexsystems,Icanappreciatetherangeofapplicationscoveredinthebook.
Ralf spent a sabbatical year at our Institute when were still at the University of
Maryland and jointly developed several of the applications discussed in the book.
Thatyearwasextremelyproductiveforallofus,andhelpedtoexpandtheenvelope
ofspatiallyexplicitenvironmentalmodeling,asreportedinthebook. Iintendtouse
the book to make researchers in our Institute fully conversantwith the theory and
latestapplicationsinenvironmentalmodelingsotheycantakethenextstepsforward.
Assomeonewhointeractswithenvironmentalmanagersandtriestohelpthemtouse
modelingeffectivelyin theirdecision-making,I cansee that thebookwill bevery
useful. Managersneedasinglesourcethatcanshowthembothhowmodelsworkand
howtheycanbeusefulindecision-making. Byintegratingtheoryandapplications,
this bookcan quicklybringenvironmentalmanagersupto speedandhelpthemto
useexistingmodelsmoreeffectively,tocommissionbettermodelsinthefuture,and
to activelyparticipateinthe modelingprocessthemselves. Iintendto recommend
thisbooktoenvironmentalmanagersasthebestwaytofamiliarizethemselveswith
thelatesttheoryandusesofenvironmentalmodeling.
Finally, as Ralf Seppelt makes clear in this book, modelingis an activity, and this
activityisitselfatleastasimportantandvaluableasthemodelsthemselves. Mod-
elingasanactivitycanbeseenastheessenceofthescientificmethod. Theunique
integrationthat this bookrepresents is thus also a good platformfor talking about
whatscienceis at a veryfundamentallevel. Thelinksbetweenscienceandpolicy
aresotenuoustodaypreciselybecauseofsomefundamentalconfusionsaboutwhat
scienceis,andhowitcanbestinformdecision-making.Scienceisnotcertainty,asit
isoftenmischaracterizedinthemedia. Scienceisaboutunderstandinguncertainty,
andmodernsciencerecognizesthatcomplexsystemscanneverbeunderstoodwith
certainty. Computermodelingisthebesttoolwecurrentlyhavetodescribeandun-
derstanduncertaintyincomplexsystems. Byclarifyingtheseconfusions,thisbook
will be a valuableandimportanttool at a veryfundamentallevel, and will help to
createabetterlinkbetweenscienceandpolicyingeneral.
July2003
RobertCostanza
GundProfessorofEcologicalEconomics
andDirector,GundInstituteofEcologicalEconomics
TheUniversityofVermont
Burlington,VT,USA
Acknowledgments
Ecologicalmodelingis afastdevelopingareainthefieldofenvironmentalscience
inwhichsubstantialprogresshasbeenachievedinrecentyears. User-friendlysoft-
ware packages, includinghighperformancenumericaltools, enableenvironmental
scientiststocodecomplexsystemsandthusstudyenvironmentalprocessesinasys-
tematicfashion. Modelinghasbecomeanimportantpartofenvironmentalresearch.
Redundancyandaconfusingdiversity,however,havebeenafrequentresultofthis
development.Inthisbook,therecentstateofenvironmentalmodelingispresentedin
aconcisemanner,andmodelapplicationsinenvironmentalmanagementarestudied.
Thisprojectwouldhavebeenimpossiblewithoutthesupportofseveralcolleagues
and friends whom I would like to thank especially now that this project has been
completed.
First of all, I would like to thank Otto Richter for his support and inspiring ideas.
Special thanks go to the good humor of Dagmar So¨ndgerath and Boris Schro¨der
formanyfruitfuldiscussions, suggestionsandcritical remarks, and— muchmore
important—theresultingmotivation.
The ideas and results presented in this publication are the outcome of numerous
co-operations and projects. I appreciate having worked together closely with the
following people (in alphabetic order): Robert Costanza, Michael Flake, Claudia
Hiepe,OlafJensen,VerenaKorr,MatthiasKuhnert,TomMaxwell,FlorianStange,
Christian Thiel, Christine Vogel, and Alexey Voinov. I gratefully appreciate their
suggestions,inspiringdiscussionsandideas.
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