Computational Conflict Research PDF
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Computational Social Sciences Emanuel Deutschmann Jan Lorenz Luis G. Nardin Davide Natalini Adalbert F. X. Wilhelm Editors Computational Confl ict Research Computational Social Sciences Computational Social Sciences A series of authored and edited monographs that utilize quantitative and compu- tational methods to model, analyze and interpret large-scale social phenomena. Titleswithintheseriescontainmethodsandpracticesthattestanddeveloptheories of complex social processes through bottom-up modeling of social interactions. Of particular interest is the study of the co-evolution of modern communication technologyandsocialbehaviorandnorms,inconnectionwithemergingissuessuch astrust,risk,securityandprivacyinnovelsocio-technicalenvironments. ComputationalSocialSciencesisexplicitlytransdisciplinary:quantitativemethods fromfieldssuchasdynamicalsystems,artificialintelligence,networktheory,agent- basedmodeling,andstatisticalmechanicsareinvokedandcombinedwithstate-of- the-art mining and analysis of large data sets to help us understand social agents, their interactions on and offline, and the effect of these interactions at the macro level.Topicsinclude,butarenotlimitedtosocialnetworksandmedia,dynamicsof opinions,culturesandconflicts,socio-technicalco-evolutionandsocialpsychology. Computational Social Sciences will also publish monographs and selected edited contributions from specialized conferences and workshops specifically aimed at communicating new findings to a large transdisciplinary audience. A fundamental goal of the series is to provide a single forum within which commonalities and differencesintheworkingsofthisfieldmaybediscerned,henceleadingtodeeper insightandunderstanding. SeriesEditors: ElisaBertino LarryS.Liebovitch PurdueUniversity,WestLafayette, QueensCollege,CityUniversityof IN,USA NewYork,Flushing,NY,USA ClaudioCioffi-Revilla SorinA.Matei GeorgeMasonUniversity,Fairfax, PurdueUniversity,WestLafayette, VA,USA IN,USA JacobFoster AntonNijholt UniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles, UniversityofTwente,Enschede, CA,USA TheNetherlands NigelGilbert AndrzejNowak UniversityofSurrey,Guildford,UK UniversityofWarsaw,Warsaw,Poland JenniferGolbeck RobertSavit UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark, UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor, MD,USA MI,USA BrunoGonçalves FlaminioSquazzoni NewYorkUniversity,NewYork, UniversityofBrescia,Brescia,Italy NY,USA AlessandroVinciarelli JamesA.Kitts UniversityofGlasgow,Glasgow, UniversityofMassachusetts Scotland,UK Amherst,MA,USA Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/11784 Emanuel Deutschmann • Jan Lorenz • Luis G. Nardin Davide Natalini • Adalbert F. X. Wilhelm Editors Computational Conflict Research Editors EmanuelDeutschmann JanLorenz InstituteofSociology BremenInternationalGraduate UniversityofGo¨ttingen SchoolofSocialSciences Go¨ttingen,Germany JacobsUniversity Bremen,Germany LuisG.Nardin DavideNatalini DepartmentofInformatics GlobalSustainabilityInstitute BrandenburgUniversityofTechnology AngliaRuskinUniversity Cottbus,Germany Cambridge,UK AdalbertF.X.Wilhelm BremenInternationalGraduate SchoolofSocialSciences JacobsUniversityBremen Bremen,Germany ISSN2509-9574 ISSN2509-9582 (electronic) ComputationalSocialSciences ISBN978-3-030-29332-1 ISBN978-3-030-29333-8 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29333-8 ©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s)2020.Thisbookisanopenaccesspublication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicateifchangesweremade. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons licence,unlessindicatedotherwiseinacreditlinetothematerial.Ifmaterialisnotincludedinthebook’s CreativeCommonslicenceandyourintendeduseisnotpermittedbystatutoryregulationorexceedsthe permitteduse,youwillneedtoobtainpermissiondirectlyfromthecopyrightholder. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthors,andtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthisbook arebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsor theeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforany errorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictional claimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG. Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Acknowledgements Most of the contributors of this book met at the BIGSSS Summer School in Computational Social Science: Research Incubators on Data-driven Modeling of Conflicts,whichtookplacefromJuly23toAugust3,2018atJacobsUniversityin Bremen,Germany.ThesummerschoolwasorganizedbyJanLorenz,ArlineRave, Klaus Boehnke, Adalbert Wilhelm, and Emanuel Deutschmann and was possible throughfinancialsupportfromVolkswagenFoundation,viaagrantintheirinitiative InternationalResearchinComputationalSocialSciences(grantnr.92145).Mostof the chapters originate from the research started in the research incubators at the summerschool,andwearepleasedthattheteamscontinuedtoworktogetherafter leaving Bremen to turn their projects into the chapters that now form this book. We,theeditors,wouldliketothankArlineRaveforherextraordinarydedicationin organizingthesummerschool.JamesKittsprovidedimportantsupportandadvice; LisaGutowskiassistedinfinalizingthebackmatterofthebook.Wearealsograteful to Henrik Dobewall and Peter Holtz who gave helpful input and to the editors at SpringerNaturefortheirsupportinthepublishingprocess.ThankstoVolkswagen Foundation,thisbookisalsoavailableopenaccessandfreeforanyonetoread.Most importantly,wewouldliketothanktheauthorsfortheircontributionstothisbook. v Contents AdvancingConflictResearchThroughComputationalApproaches....... 1 EmanuelDeutschmann,JanLorenz,andLuisG.Nardin PartI DataandMethodsinComputationalConflictResearch AdvancesinDataonConflictandDissent..................................... 23 KristianSkredeGleditsch TextasDataforConflictResearch:ALiteratureSurvey.................... 43 SeraphineF.MaerzandCorneliusPuschmann InterdependenciesinConflictDynamics:AnalyzingEndogenous PatternsinConflictEventDataUsingRelationalEventModels ........... 67 LaurenceBrandenberger PartII ComputationalResearchonNon-violentConflict Migration Policy Framing in Political Discourse: Evidence fromCanadaandtheUSA...................................................... 83 SanjaHajdinjak,MarcellaH.Morris,andTylerAmos The Role of Network Structure and Initial Group Norm DistributionsinNormConflict ................................................. 113 JulianKohne,NatalieGallagher,ZeynepMelisKirgil,RoccoPaolillo, LarsPadmos,andFaribaKarimi OntheFateofProtests:DynamicsofSocialActivationandTopic SelectionOnlineandintheStreets............................................. 141 Ahmadreza Asgharpourmasouleh, Masoud Fattahzadeh, DanielMayerhoffer,andJanLorenz vii viii Contents PartIII ComputationalResearchonViolentConflict Do Non-State Armed Groups Influence Each Other in Attack TimingandFrequency?Generating,Analyzing,andComparing EmpiricalDataandSimulation.................................................. 167 Simone Cremaschi, Baris Kirdemir, Juan Masullo, Adam R. Pah, NicolasPayette,andRithvikYarlagadda OntheBeatenPath:ViolenceAgainstCiviliansandSimulated ConflictAlongRoadNetworks ................................................. 183 AndreaSalvi,MarkWilliamson,andJessicaDraper AnalysisofConflictDiffusionOverContinuousSpace...................... 201 ClaireKellingandYiJyunLin Rebel Group Protection Rackets: Simulating the Effects ofEconomicSupportonCivilWarViolence.................................. 225 FrancesDuffy,KamilC.Klosek,LuisG.Nardin,andGerdWagner OnlineMaterial................................................................... 253 Index............................................................................... 257 Contributors TylerAmos SocialScienceDivision,UniversityofChicago,Chicago,IL,USA AhmadrezaAsgharpourmasouleh DepartmentofSocialSciences,FerdowsiUni- versityofMashhad,Mashhad,Iran Laurence Brandenberger Department of Management, Technology and Eco- nomics,ETHZurich,Zurich,Switzerland Simone Cremaschi Department of Political and Social Sciences, European Uni- versityInstitute,Florence,Italy Emanuel Deutschmann Institute of Sociology, University of Göttingen, Göttin- gen,Germany Jessica Draper School of Social Sciences, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany Frances Duffy Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina at ChapelHill,ChapelHill,NC,USA Masoud Fattahzadeh Department of Social Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Mashhad,Iran NatalieGallagher DepartmentofPsychology,NorthwesternUniversity,Evanston, IL,USA Kristian Skrede Gleditsch Department of Government, University of Essex, Essex,UK PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO),Oslo,Norway Sanja Hajdinjak Department of Government, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Fariba Karimi Department of Computational Social Science, GESIS Leibniz InstitutefortheSocialSciences,Cologne,Germany ix x Contributors Claire Kelling Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, State College,PA,USA BarisKirdemir UniversityofArkansasatLittleRock,LittleRock,USA ZeynepMelisKirgil DepartmentofSociology,UniversityofGroningen,Gronin- gen,TheNetherlands Kamil C. Klosek Department of Security Studies, Institute of Political Studies, CharlesUniversity,Prague,CzechRepublic JulianKohne DepartmentofComputationalSocialScience,GESISLeibnizInsti- tutefortheSocialSciences,Cologne,Germany YiJyun Lin Department of Political Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV,USA Jan Lorenz Department of Psychology and Methods, Jacobs University Bremen, Bremen,Germany DepartmentofComputationalSocialScience,GESISLeibnizInstitutefortheSocial Sciences,Cologne,Germany SeraphineF.Maerz V-DemInstitute,DepartmentofPoliticalScience,University ofGothenburg,Gothenburg,Sweden Juan Masullo Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford,Oxford,UK DanielMayerhoffer PoliticalScienceInstitute,UniversityofBamberg,Bamberg, Germany MarcellaH.Morris DepartmentofPoliticalScience,EmoryUniversity,Atlanta, GA,USA Luis G. Nardin Department of Informatics, Brandenburg University of Technol- ogy,Cottbus,Germany Davide Natalini Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge,UK LarsPadmos DepartmentofSociology,UniversityofGroningen,Groningen,The Netherlands Adam R. Pah Management and Organizations, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL,USA RoccoPaolillo BremenInternationalGraduateSchoolofSocialSciences,Univer- sityofBremen,Bremen,Germany JacobsUniversity,Bremen,Germany NicolasPayette SchoolofGeographyandtheEnvironment,UniversityofOxford, Oxford,UK
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