Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts PDF
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Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts, National Research Council ISBN: 0-309-66261-3, 124 pages, 8 1/2 x 11, (2006) This free PDF was downloaded from: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html Visit the National Academies Press online, the authoritative source for all books from the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council: • Download hundreds of free books in PDF • Read thousands of books online, free • Sign up to be notified when new books are published • Purchase printed books • Purchase PDFs • Explore with our innovative research tools Thank you for downloading this free PDF. If you have comments, questions or just want more information about the books published by the National Academies Press, you may contact our customer service department toll-free at 888-624-8373, visit us online, or send an email to Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html COMPLETING THE FORECAST Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special com- petences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. DG133R04CQ0009, Task Order #3. Any opinions, fndings, and conclu- sions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily refect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-10255-3 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-66261-3 (PDF) Library of Congress Control Number 2006932671 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonproft, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientifc and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientifc and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Acad- emy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientifc and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html COMMITTEE ON ESTIMATING AND COMMUNICATING UNCERTAINTY IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS RAYMOND J. BAN (Chair), The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia JOHN T. ANDREW, California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, California BARBARA G. BROWN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DAVID CHANGNON, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, Illinois KONSTANTINE GEORGAKAKOS, Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, California JAMES HANSEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge RONALD N. KEENER, JR., Duke Energy, Charlotte, North Carolina UPMANU LALL, Columbia University, New York CLIFFORD F. MASS, University of Washington, Seattle REBECCA E. MORSS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ROBERT T. RYAN, NBC4, Washington, DC ELKE U. WEBER, Columbia University, New York NRC Staff PAUL CUTLER, Study Director LEAH PROBST, Research Associate ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ROBERT J. SERAFIN (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, C olorado M. JOAN ALEXANDER, NorthWest Research Associates/CORA, Boulder, Colorado FREDERICK R. ANDERSON, McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP, Washington, DC MICHAEL L. BENDER, Princeton University, New Jersey ROSINA M. BIERBAUM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MARY ANNE CARROLL, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor CAROL ANNE CLAYSON, Florida State University, Tallahassee WALTER F. DABBERDT, Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado KERRY A. EMANUEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DENNIS L. HARTMANN, University of Washington, Seattle PETER R. LEAVITT, Weather Information Inc., Newton, Massachusetts JENNIFER A. LOGAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts VERNON R. MORRIS, Howard University, Washington, DC F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, University of California, Irvine THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR, Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins ROGER M. WAKIMOTO, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Ex Offcio Members ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR., University of Maryland, College Park ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, New Jersey NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director PAUL CUTLER, Senior Program Offcer AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Program Offcer IAN KRAUCUNAS, Associate Program Offcer CLAUDIA MENGELT, Associate Program Offcer LEAH PROBST, Research Associate ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Coordinator ANDREAS SOHRE, Financial Associate i Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html Preface Recognizing the opportunity to enhance the service it (as requested in the charge), the overall thrust is to provide provides to the nation, the National Weather Service (NWS) NWS with a template of how to effectively assess the unique commissioned the National Research Council (NRC) to form needs of a very wide range of users. The psychology of a committee to provide recommendations on how NWS can decision-making processes is presented along with general more effectively estimate and communicate uncertainty in paths that the enterprise can follow in providing useful input weather and climate forecasts. This opportunity was high- into decision-support systems. “Teaching how to fsh versus lighted in Recommendation 8 of the report Fair Weather: catching a fsh” is an appropriate analogy and is one that Effectie Partnerships in Weather and Climate Forecasts NWS used at the committee’s frst meeting. (NRC, 2003a) and NWS desired more specifc input in this The committee met a total of fve times between April area. 2005 and February 2006 and received broad and diverse The committee was tasked with providing guidance on input from specialists on topics ranging from probabilistic understanding and characterizing user needs for uncertainty data generation, to product development, to user decision information, suggesting improvements in current methods processes. The committee would like to thank all of those used to estimate and validate uncertainty products and rec- who provided their time and insight. The contributors are ommending improvements in methods used to communicate listed in Appendix B of the report. uncertainty information. Since weather services in the United Finally the committee thanks NWS personnel for all of the States are the result of an interdependent enterprise consist- input they provided during the course of the study, including ing of public, private, and academic assets, NWS also asked answers to our many questions and numerous and complete the committee to make recommendations consistent with an product summaries. In particular we thank Ed Johnson, Lee “enterprise” viewpoint. Anderson, and John Sokich for their prompt and complete At the very beginning of the study, the committee real- responses. ized that an exhaustive look at the needs of users or user categories with regard to uncertainty information would be Raymond J. Ban, Chair vastly beyond its time constraints and resources. Although Committee on Estimating and Communicating several specifc examples of user needs appear in the report Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts ii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11699.html Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals Daniel P. Loucks, Cornell University, Ithaca, chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, New York in accordance with procedures approved by the National Tom Skilling, WGN-TV News, Chicago, Illinois Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose Mort Webster, University of North Carolina at of this independent review is to provide candid and criti- C hapel Hill cal comments that will assist the institution in making its Lawrence Wilson, Meteorological Service of Canada, published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the Dorval, Quebec report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review com- Although the reviewers listed above have provided con- ments and draft manuscript remain confdential to protect the structive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor following individuals for their review of this report: did they see the fnal draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by George Frederick, James Block, DTN-Meteorlogix, Minneapolis, Vaisala, Inc., and Kuo-Nan Liou, University of California, M innesota Los Angeles. Appointed by the National Research Council, David Budescu, University of Illinois, Champaign they were responsible for making certain that an independent Simon Chang, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, examination of this report was carried out in accordance with California institutional procedures and that all review comments were Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona, Tucson carefully considered. Responsibility for the fnal content of Kathryn Laskey, George Mason University, Fairfax, this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and Virginia the institution. ix Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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