Climate change : the science, impacts and solutions

369 Pages·2009·11.618 MB·English

by  Pittock, A. Barrie

e
S E C O N D E D I T I O N
The Science, Impacts and Solutions
A. BARRIE PITTOCK
S E C OND EDITION
CLIMATE
C H A N G E
The Science, Impacts and Solutions
A. BARRIE PITTOCK
n
publishing for a sustainable future
First published 2009 by Earthscan
© CSIRO 2009
All rights reserved. Except under the conditions described in the Australian Copyright Act 1968 and subsequent
amendments, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any
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National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry
Pittock, A. Barrie, 1938-
Climate change : the science, impacts and solutions / A.
Barrie Pittock.
2nd ed.
9780643094840 (pbk.)
Includes index.
Bibliography.
Climatic changes - Government policy.
Climatic changcs - Risk assessment.
Global environmental change.
Greenhouse effect. Atmospheric.
Global wanning.
551.6
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for.
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Published exclusively in Europe, the Middle East, Asia
(including India, Japan, China and South-East Asia) and
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(excluding Australia, New Zealand and the Americas), by
Earthscan, with ISBN 978-1-84407-648-2 (paperback) and
ISBN 978-1-84407-786-1 (hardback) ISBN 978-1-315-87035-9 (elSBN).
CONTENTS
Foreword ix
Acknowledgements xi
Introduction xiii
1 Climate change matters 1
Turning up the heat 2
Why is the present rapid warming happening? 7
The importance of delayed climate responses 10
Observed impacts 12
Trends in human vulnerability 15
Projections of future climate change 16
Facing the challenge 17
Conclusion 18
Endnotes 19
2 Learning from the past 23
Proxy data: clues from the past 24
The record of the ice ages 26
The causes of past climate change 27
Variations in the Earth's orbit 28
Role of greenhouse gases in amplifying climate changes 29
Variations in solar output 30
Volcanoes, cosmic collisions and aerosols 31
Rapid climate changes in the past 32
The last 10000 years 35
Conclusions from the past record 37
Endnotes 39
3 Projecting the future 43
The need for, and nature of, foresight 43
Predictions, scenarios and projections 44
iv CLIMATE CHANCE: THE SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS
The emissions scenarios used by the IPCC 45
Projections of socio-economic futures 49
Forecasting the weather 51
Why climate projections are different 52
How good are climate models? 53
The state of climate projections 56
Endnotes 57
4 Uncertainty is inevitable, but risk is certain 59
Despite uncertainties, decisions have to be made 59
Uncertainty in climate change projections 60
From polarisation to probability and risk 63
Estimating risk 67
Uncertainty and the role of sceptics 69
Application of the 'precautionary principle' 73
Endnotes 74
5 What climate changes are likely? 77
Projected climate changes 78
Surface warming 80
Regional warmings 82
Precipitation and evaporation 82
Extreme events 84
Sea-level rise 87
Thresholds and abrupt or irreversible changes 93
Scenarios in a nutshell 97
Endnotes 99
6 Impacts: why be concerned? 107
Climate change impacts - reasons for concern 109
Thresholds and abrupt changes 110
Risks to unique and threatened systems 111
Risks from extreme climate events 115
Distribution of impacts 118
Aggregate impacts 121
CONTENTS v
Waking the sleeping giants 122
Effects of a breakdown in the ocean circulation 122
Rapid sea-level rise from melting ice sheets 124
Runaway carbon dynamics 125
Security implications 126
Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations 126
Growing reasons for concern 128
Endnotes 129
7 Adaptation: living with climate change 133
Adaptation concepts and strategies 133
Costs and benefits of adaptation 136
Implementation 137
Effects of different rates of climatic change 140
Equity issues in adaptation 141
Enhancing adaptive capacity 144
Endnotes 145
8 Mitigation: limiting climate change 149
Why mitigation is necessary 149
Targets: how much mitigation is needed? 150
Where we are now 157
How difficult is mitigation? 159
The looming peak in oil production 165
Mitigation options 167
Increased energy efficiency 167
Changes in infrastructure and behaviour 170
Fuel substitution 172
Nuclear power 174
Hydropower 176
Solar energy 177
Wind power 180
Biomass energy 182
Tidal and wave energy 186
vi CLIMATE CHANCE: THE SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS
Geothermal power 187
The hydrogen economy 188
Carbon capture and sequestration 190
Land-based carbon sinks 194
Geoengineering possibilities 197
Technological innovation: attitude is vital 201
The road to effective mitigation 202
Endnotes 206
9 Climate change in context 223
Surface air pollution and climate change 225
Stratospheric ozone depletion 225
Land-use change, biodiversity, agriculture and forestry 226
Land degradation and desertification 227
Freshwater supply 227
Population growth 229
Synergies and trade-offs 231
Integration, sustainable development and equity 232
Postscript: connections between economic and climate crises 234
Endnotes 236
10 The politics of greenhouse 239
Is the science credible? 239
What about the uncertainty? 241
How realistic are the scenarios? 242
Choosing global and local emissions targets 243
How urgently do we need to act? 246
How much will reducing emissions cost? 247
Meeting targets most efficiently 249
International equity: what is fair? 254
The importance of equity within countries 260
Equity between generations 261
The role of governments and NGOs 262
What role should business take? 264
CONTENTS vii
The role of state and local governments 268
So what are the politics of greenhouse? 270
Endnotes 271
11 International concern and national interests 277
A brief history 277
The Kyoto Protocol 280
National interests and climate change 282
African nations 283
Australia and New Zealand 284
China 289
European Union 291
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh 293
Latin America 295
The Russian Federation 296
Small Island States 298
United States of America 300
The common interest in global solutions 306
Endnotes 307
12 Accepting the challenge 317
Looking beyond the Kyoto Protocol 321
Addressing the key issues 324
Endnotes 326
Glossary (with acronyms) 329
Index 337
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FOREWORD
Barrie Pittock has been a leading researcher of An extremely eloquent statement is conveyed in
considerable standing worldwide on various the title of Chapter 4, which states 'Uncertainty is
aspects of climate change. The quality and content inevitable, but risk is certain'. This really is the key
of research carried out by him has established a message in this book particularly as it goes on to
benchmark that sets the standard for several of his describe the impacts of climate change, the
peers and provides a model for young researchers. seriousness with which these should be considered
In this book he has provided a comprehensive and the imperative need for adaptation. In Chapter 8
analysis of various aspects of climate change, which a comprehensive and detailed assessment is
he begins by examining the physical and biological provided on several mitigation actions. The volume
aspects of climate change and a detailed analysis of ends by making a logical transition into political
the science of the climate system. The book assumes issues that have national as well as international
great topical interest for the reader because of several dimensions.
questions that the author has posed and attempted For sheer breadth and comprehensiveness of
to answer, such as the recent heatwave that took coverage, Barrie Pittock's book fills a unique void
place in Paris in the summer of 2003, the frequency in the literature in this field. Coming as it does from
of closure of the Thames barrier, and the melting of an author who knows the scientific and technical
glaciers which affects not only parts of Europe but complexities of the whole subject, this book should
even the high mountain glaciers in the Himalayas. be seen as a valuable reference for scientists and
A study of paleoclimate is an important policymakers alike.
component of present-day climate change research, In my view, which is shared by a growing body
and the book goes through a lucid and useful of concerned citizens worldwide, climate change is
assessment of the evidence that is available to us a challenge faced by the global community that will
today in understanding and quantifying the nature require unprecedented resolve and increasing
and extent of climate change in the past. Also ingenuity to tackle in the years ahead. Efforts to be
presented in considerable detail are projections of made would need to be based on knowledge and
climate change in the future including a discussion informed assessment of the future. Barrie Pittock's
of the emissions scenarios developed and used by book provides information and analysis that will
the IPCC and projections obtained from it as well as greatly assist and guide decision makers on what
from other sources. needs to be done.
DR RAJENDRA K PACHAURI
Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute, India and
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2005