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Climate change modeling, mitigation, and adaptation PDF

727 Pages·2013·16.82 MB·English
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Preview Climate change modeling, mitigation, and adaptation

Climate Change Modeling, Mitigation, and Adaptation EDITED BY Rao Y. Surampalli Tian C. Zhang C. S. P. Ojha B. Gurjar R. D. Tyagi C. M. Kao SPONSORED BY Environmental Council Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers Published by the American Society of Civil Engineers Cataloging-in-Publication Data on file with the Library of Congress. Published by American Society of Civil Engineers 1801 Alexander Bell Drive Reston, Virginia, 20191-4400 www.asce.org/pubs Any statements expressed in these materials are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the views of ASCE, which takes no responsibility for any statement made herein. No reference made in this publication to any specific method, product, process, or service constitutes or implies an endorsement, recommendation, or warranty thereof by ASCE. The materials are for general information only and do not represent a standard of ASCE, nor are they intended as a reference in purchase specifications, contracts, regulations, statutes, or any other legal document. ASCE makes no representation or warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or utility of any information, apparatus, product, or process discussed in this publication, and assumes no liability therefore. This information should not be used without first securing competent advice with respect to its suitability for any general or specific application. Anyone utilizing this information assumes all liability arising from such use, including but not limited to infringement of any patent or patents. ASCE and American Society of Civil Engineers—Registered in U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Photocopies and permissions. Permission to photocopy or reproduce material from ASCE publications can be obtained by sending an e-mail to [email protected] or by locating a title in ASCE's online database (http://cedb.asce.org) and using the “Permission to Reuse” link. Copyright © 2013 by the American Society of Civil Engineers. All Rights Reserved. ISBN 978-0-7844-1271-8 (paper) ISBN 978-0-7844-7772-4 (PDF) Manufactured in the United States of America. Contents Preface ......................................................................................................................... xi About the Editors ....................................................................................................... xiii Contributors .............................................................................................................. xvii Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................................ 1 Part 1 Basic Science and Vulnerability Assessment .................... 9 Chapter 2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change: An Overview ...................................................................................... 10 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 10 2.2 Trends of GHG Emissions (Change in Climatic Parameters) ...... 13 2.3 Impacts of Climate Change at Different Scales ............................ 15 2.4 GHGs Emission Reduction and Climate Change Mitigation ....... 17 2.5 Socio-economic and Political Implications .................................. 20 2.6 References ..................................................................................... 22 Chapter 3 Greenhouse Gas Contribution on Climate Change ....................... 26 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 26 3.2 Greenhouse Gases ......................................................................... 27 3.3 Current Scenario of Greenhouse Gases ........................................ 31 3.4 Factors Responsible for Increasing Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases/Global Warming ........................................................... 32 3.5 Causes of Climate Changes .......................................................... 35 3.6 Effect of Greenhouse Gases on Climate ....................................... 40 3.7 Impact of Climate Change ............................................................ 44 3.8 Government Initiatives on Climate Change.................................. 49 3.9 Challenge of Limiting Global Warming to 2oC ............................ 52 3.10 Conclusion and Future Outlook .................................................. 53 3.11 Acknowledgements ..................................................................... 53 3.12 Abbreviations .............................................................................. 54 3.13 References ................................................................................... 54 Chapter 4 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Different Sources ...................... 62 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 62 4.2 Overview of Sector Emissions and Trends ................................... 64 4.3 Indirect GHGs ............................................................................... 78 4.4 Summary ....................................................................................... 83 4.5 References ..................................................................................... 85 iii iv CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION Chapter 5 Impact of GHG Emissions and Climate Change ........................... 92 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 92 5.2 Major Impacts ............................................................................... 93 5.3 Summary and Future Perspectives ............................................. 104 5.4 References ................................................................................... 105 Chapter 6 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) and Economics of Stabilisation ................................................................................. 109 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 109 6.2 GHG Effect and Climate Change .............................................. 112 6.3 Emissions/Concentrations of GHGs and Economics of Stabilisation ................................................................................ 119 6.4 Global Strategies and Practical Implications of Global Strategies with Kyoto Protocol .................................................................... 136 6.5 Post Kyoto and Future Policies ................................................... 147 6.6 Conclusions ................................................................................. 152 6.7 References ................................................................................... 154 Chapter 7 Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change on Human Development: Perspectives on Measurement ................. 160 7.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 160 7.2 Global Concerns and Initiatives for Dealing with the Impact of Climate Change........................................................................... 161 7.3 Overview of the Issues and Problems for Developing Countries 165 7.4 Proposing a Framework for Measuring Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Mitigation Capacity .......................................... 169 7.5 References .................................................................................. 174 Part 2 Modeling and Predicting ................................................. 177 Chapter 8 Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change: Quantification of Uncertainties ................................................................................... 178 8.1 Background: Climate Change Impact Assessment ..................... 178 8.2 Downscaling for Hydrologic Needs ........................................... 179 8.3 Uncertainty Quantification Methods .......................................... 182 8.4 GCM and Scenario Uncertainty Modeling ................................. 186 8.5 Uncertainty Combination: GCM, Scenario, and Downscaling Uncertainty.................................................................................. 195 8.6 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................... 210 8.7 References ................................................................................... 212 Chapter 9 Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation and Temperature for a Lake Basin .............................................................................. 219 9.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 219 9.2 Statistical Downscaling ......................................................... 220 9.3 Statistical Downscaling Techniques ........................................... 221 CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION v 9.4 Study Region and Data Extraction .............................................. 224 9.5 Evaluation of Linear Regression Methods.................................. 233 9.6 Evaluation of Artificial Neural Network Methods ..................... 240 9.7 Conclusion ................................................................................. 248 9.8 References ................................................................................... 248 Chapter 10 Essence of Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes .................. 251 10.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 251 10.2 Climate Change and Occurrence of Extreme Events ............... 252 10.3 Changes in Earth’s Climate and Expected Changes in Extreme Events....................................................................................... 256 10.4 Evidences of Increase in Extreme Events ................................ 257 10.5 Flood Frequency Estimation and Impact of Climate Change .. 259 10.6 Impact of Climate Change on Floods of Various Return Periods—A Case Study ........................................................... 268 10.7 Impact of Climate Change on Probable Maximum Flood— A Case Study ........................................................................... 271 10.8 Climate and Drought ................................................................ 277 10.9 Summary and Conclusions ...................................................... 293 10.10 References ............................................................................... 294 Chapter 11 Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Systems and Implications for Decision-Makers ................................................. 299 11.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 299 11.2 Limits of Predictability of Climate .......................................... 300 11.3 Complexity of Climate Modeling for Impacts Assessment ..... 300 11.4 Decision-making under Climate Change Uncertainty ............. 302 11.5 Case Study 1: Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Yield in Yorkshire, UK .......................................................................... 304 11.6 Case Study 2: Climate Change Impact on Blue Nile Flow ...... 314 11.7 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 324 11.8 References ................................................................................ 324 Chapter 12 Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorological Variables in a River Basin in India for IPCC SRES Scenarios ................... 327 12.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 327 12.2 Background .............................................................................. 328 12.3 Study Region and Data Used ................................................... 334 12.4 Methodology ............................................................................ 335 12.5 Results ...................................................................................... 340 12.6 Conclusions .............................................................................. 352 12.7 References ............................................................................... 353 vi CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION Chapter 13 A New Framework for Modeling Future Hydrologic Extremes: Nested Bias Correction as a Precursor to Stochastic Rainfall Downscaling ..................................................................................... 357 13.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 357 13.2 Uncertainty in GCM Rainfall .................................................. 359 13.3 Nested Bias Correction (NBC) ................................................ 361 13.4 Modified Markov Stochastic Downscaling Model (MMM) ... 368 13.5 Conclusions .............................................................................. 383 13.6 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 383 13.7 References ................................................................................ 383 Chapter 14 Statistical Analysis of Hydro-Climatic Variables ........................ 387 14.1 Statistical Methods of Short- and Long-term Dependence ...... 387 14.2 Statistical Methods of Trend Analysis ..................................... 395 14.3 Statistical Methods of Periodicity ............................................ 398 14.4 Application of Methodology .................................................... 401 14.5 Conclusions .............................................................................. 414 14.6 References ................................................................................ 415 Chapter 15 Climate Change and Its Impact on Indian Agriculture .............. 419 15.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 419 15.2 Trends in Key Weather Parameters ......................................... 419 15.3 Role of Greenhouse Gases ....................................................... 422 15.4 Emission of GHG’s from Indian Agriculture .......................... 423 15.5 Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture ............................... 426 15.6 Impacts of Carbon Fertilization ............................................... 433 15.7 Climate Change Impact on Livestock ...................................... 435 15.8 Climate Change Impact on Poultry .......................................... 437 15.9 Climate Change Impact on Fisheries ....................................... 439 15.10 Impact of Climate Change on Crop Water Requirements and Water Resources ............................................................ 441 15.11 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies ................................... 444 15.12 Socio Economic and Policy Issues ....................................... 448 15.13 India's National Action Plan on Climate Change ................. 449 15.14 Conclusions ........................................................................... 450 15.15 References ............................................................................. 451 Chapter 16 Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Production ...................................................................... 454 16.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 454 16.2 Crop Models ............................................................................ 456 16.3 Application of Crop Models .................................................... 459 16.4 Discussion ................................................................................ 465 16.5 References ................................................................................ 465 CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION vii Chapter 17 Diagnosis of Climate and Weather ................................................ 471 17.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 471 17.2 Methods for Signal Extraction ................................................. 472 17.3 Principle of SOM ..................................................................... 473 17.4 Classification of Synoptic Field Patterns Using SOM............. 474 17.5 Diagnosis of Future Climate Change ....................................... 487 17.6 Summary .................................................................................. 490 17.7 References ................................................................................ 492 Part 3 Reducing and Adapting .................................................. 495 Chapter 18 Adapting to Climate Change: Technologies, Perceptions, Education, and Perspectives ......................................................... 496 18.1 Techniques for Mitigating Climate .......................................... 499 18.2 People’s Perceptions for Mitigating Climate .......................... 507 18.3 Education, Training, and Outreach ............ ............................. 508 18.4 Challenges and Controversies .................................................. 510 18.5 References ............................................................................... 513 Chapter 19 Enhancing Verdurization for Mitigating Climate Change ......... 519 19.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 519 19.2 Mechanisms of Anthropogenic Climate Change ..................... 520 19.3 Plant Biology and Photosynthesis ........................................... 521 19.4 Impact of Climate Change on Plant Growth and Biodiversity 523 19.5 Impact of Climate Change on Plant Diseases .......................... 525 19.6 Climate Change Mitigation by Forests .................................... 526 19.7 Climate Change Mitigation by Wetland System ..................... 529 19.8 Summary .................................................................................. 532 19.9 References ................................................................................ 532 Chapter 20 Carbon Capture and Storage for Mitigating Climate Changes . 538 20.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 538 20.2 Background .............................................................................. 539 20.3 CCS Technologies ................................................................... 542 20.4 Concerns, Constrains, and Future Perspectives ....................... 561 20.5 Summary .................................................................................. 564 20.6 References ................................................................................ 564 Chapter 21 Estimation and Reduction of GHG Emissions in Wastewater/Sludge Treatment and Management ....................... 570 21.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 570 21.2 GHG Emissions during Wastewater Treatment....................... 571 21.3 GHG Emissions during Sludge Management .......................... 579 21.4 Key Strategies for Mitigation of GHG Emissions from Wastewater Treatment/Management ....................................... 587 viii CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION 21.5 Case Study: Assessment of Impacts of Changing Wastewater Treatment Technologies on GHG Emissions and Energy Balance ................................................................. 588 21.6 Future Perspectives .................................................................. 590 21.7 Conclusions .............................................................................. 591 21.8 Acknowledgement ................................................................... 591 22.9 References ............................................................................... 592 Chapter 22 Mitigation/Reduction of GHG Emissions in Solid/Hazardous Wastes Management ....................................................................... 600 22.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 600 22.2 Production and Emission of CH at Land Disposal Sites ........ 602 4 22.3 Control of CH Emissions at Waste Disposal Sites ................. 604 4 22.4 Conclusions .............................................................................. 614 22.5 References ............................................................................... 615 Chapter 23 Recycling for Mitigating Climate Change .................................... 621 23.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 621 23.2 Causes and Impact of Climatic Changes and Its Mitigation Strategies .................................................................................. 622 23.3 Recycling as Climate Mitigation Strategy ............................... 627 23.4 Conclusion and Future Work ................................................... 635 23.5 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 636 23.6 References ............................................................................... 636 Chapter 24 Green Energy Application for Mitigating Climate Change ....... 639 24.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 639 24.2 Climate Change Mitigation Initiatives ..................................... 641 24.3 Emerging Developments in Renewables ................................. 642 24.4 International Bodies Involved in Promoting Ocean Energy .... 660 24.5 Conclusions .............................................................................. 662 24.6 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 662 24.7 References ................................................................................ 662 Chapter 25 Greenhouse Gases Emissions from Natural Systems: Mechanisms and Control Strategies ............................................. 667 25.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 667 25.2 GHG Emissions from Wetlands .............................................. 668 25.3 GHG Emissions from Oceans and Freshwaters ....................... 675 25.4 GHG Emissions from Permafrost ............................................ 677 25.5 Geologic GHG Emissions ........................................................ 679 25.6 GHG Emission from Other Natural Systems ........................... 681 25.7 Summary .................................................................................. 685 25.8 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 686 25.9 References ................................................................................ 686 CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION ix Index ...................................................................................................................... 695

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Climate Change Modeling, Mitigation, and Adaptation presents the most current thinking on the environmental mechanisms that contribute to global climate change and and explores scientifically grounded steps to reduce the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The significant contribution by
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