Climate Change and Globalization in the Arctic: An Integrated Approach to Vulnerability Assessment

273 Pages·2008·1.88 MB·English

by  E. Carina H. Keskitalo

Climate Change and Globalization in the Arctic

Climate Change and Globalization
in the Arctic
An Integrated Approach to Vulnerability Assessment
E. Carina H. Keskitalo
publishing for a sustainable future
London (cid:127) Sterling, VA
First published by Earthscan in the UK and USA in 2008
Copyright © E. Carina H. Keskitalo, 2008
All rights reserved
ISBN: 978-1-84407-528-7
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Printed and bound in the UK by TJ International, Padstow
Cover design by Susanne Harris
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A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Keskitalo, E. C. H. (Eva Carina Helena), 1974-
Climate change and globalization in the arctic : an integrated approach to vulnerability assess-
ment / E. Carina H. Keskitalo.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN-13: 978-1-84407-528-7 (hardback)
1. Climatic changes--Arctic regions. 2. Globalization--Arctic regions. 3. Arctic regions--Envi-
ronmental conditions. 4. Environmental protection--Arctic regions. I. Title.
QC981.8.C5K44 2008
551.6911’3--dc22
2008001742
The paper used for this book is FSC-certified and totally
chlorine-free. FSC (the Forest Stewardship Council) is an
international network to promote responsible management
of the world’s forests.
Contents
List of figures and tables ix
Acknowledgements xi
Introduction: Vulnerability Assessment in the Context
of Multiple Levels and Impacts 1
Understanding change and societies in flux 1
Research questions 3
Organization of the book 6
Chapter 1: Structuring the Conceptions of Change 9
1.1. Vulnerability assessment 9
1.1.1. The concepts of vulnerability and adaptive capacity 9
1.1.2. The history of vulnerability assessment 12
1.1.3. The extension of climate change vulnerability assessment
to social vulnerability 14
1.1.4. Community-based and double-exposure approaches 17
1.1.5. Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity 19
1.2. Adaptation as a political process 23
1.3. A focus on multi-level governance for vulnerability assessment 26
1.4. Analysing, organizing and understanding large-scale change 29
1.5. Conceiving of multiple impacts: Definitions of economic and
political globalization 32
1.5.1. Economic globalization 32
1.5.2. Political globalization 35
1.6. A framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity
to multiple stresses 37
Chapter 2: A Methodology for Vulnerability Assessment 39
2.1. The approach to vulnerability assessment in this work 39
2.1.1. Stakeholder-defined nested scale levels and stressors 40
vi climate change and globalization in the arctic
2.1.2. Relation of the study to participatory and
modelling-focused vulnerability assessment 42
2.2. A structure for vulnerability assessment 44
2.2.1. Overview of the methodology 44
2.2.2. Case study selection 44
2.2.2.1. Case study areas 46
2.2.3. Methodology and material 48
2.2.4. Identification of governance networks and norms 52
2.2.5. Synthesis of climate change scenario and impacts literature 53
2.2.5.1. General impacts of climate change 54
2.2.5.2. Impacts of climate change on forestry 57
2.2.5.3. Impacts of climate change on reindeer herding 58
2.2.5.4. Impacts of climate change on fishing 59
2.2.6. Understanding change 59
Chapter 3: Perceptions of Change, Vulnerability and
Adaptive Capacity among Forest Industry Stakeholders in
Northern Sweden and Finland 61
3.1. Introduction: The organization of forestry in Sweden and Finland 61
3.2. Socioeconomic change in the industry 62
3.2.1. Rationalization and technological change over time 63
3.2.2. Impacts on smaller actors: The example of small sawmills 65
3.2.3. The mobility of larger actors and dependence on resource access 66
3.2.4. The changing role of the state 68
3.3. The political network influencing the forest industry 69
3.3.1. Support possibilities at the local and regional levels 70
3.3.2. National legislation and support 71
3.3.3. International normative changes: Environmental protection
as a priority 74
3.3.3.1. Nature reserves 75
3.3.3.2. Certification: Socioeconomic and
political globalization? 78
3.3.4. The governance network as perceived by local forestry 80
3.4. Climate and climate change 84
3.4.1. Climate impacts on forestry in autumn and winter 85
3.4.2. Spring and summer 87
3.5. Conclusion: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity in forestry 92
3.5.1. Adaptations at the company level and in employment 92
3.5.2. Adaptation in the context of administration and policy 94
3.5.3. Particular adaptations to climate: Climate change as an
addition to an increasing resource problematique 95
3.6. The nature of adaptation 96
contents vii
Chapter 4: Perceptions of Change, Vulnerability and Adaptive
Capacity among Reindeer Herding Stakeholders in
Northern Norway, Sweden and Finland 99
4.1. Introduction: The organization of reindeer herding in Norway,
Sweden and Finland 99
4.1.1. Reindeer herding organizations and practices 100
4.2. Socioeconomic changes in reindeer herding 103
4.2.1. Increased mechanization, costs and supplementary feeding 104
4.2.2. Supplementary feeding 107
4.2.3. The meat market, meat prices and profitability 110
4.2.3.1. Solutions to the meat market problem: Refining and
marketing to increase consumption 112
4.3. Political change in the sector: Legislation and support 114
4.3.1. National systems for financial support and stabilizing the
number of reindeer 115
4.3.2. Impacts on reindeer herding from multiple use of forests 120
4.3.3. International norms and regulation impacting
reindeer herding 123
4.3.4. The governance network perceived by reindeer herding 127
4.4. Climate change 131
4.4.1. Autumn and winter 132
4.4.2. Spring and summer 135
4.5. Conclusion: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity in
reindeer herding 138
4.5.1. Adaptations at the individual level to economic changes 139
4.5.2. Adaptation within the governance and political regulatory
framework 140
4.5.3. Adaptation to climate change 141
4.6. The vulnerability of reindeer herding 142
Chapter 5: Perceptions of Change, Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity
among Fishing Stakeholders in Northernmost Norway 145
5.1. Introduction: Fishing organizations in Norway 145
5.2. The socioeconomic change in fishing 148
5.2.1. Change over time 148
5.2.2. The quota system and fishing economy 152
5.2.3. Market adaptations: Different types of fish processing 154
5.3. Political and organizational change in fishing 156
5.3.1. Contested fishing rights 156
5.3.2. Local and regional-level support for fishing 159
5.3.3. National-level state and interest group decision-making and
quota allocation 161
viii climate change and globalization in the arctic
5.3.4. The impact of international norms and the international
and EU levels 164
5.3.5. The governance network perceived by local small-scale fishing 165
5.4. Environmental and climate change in fishing 168
5.4.1. Environmental influences on fish populations 168
5.4.2. Climate change 169
5.4.2.1. Autumn and winter 170
5.4.2.2. Spring and summer 171
5.5. Conclusion: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity 175
5.5.1. Individual adaptations 175
5.5.2. Larger-scale adaptation within the governance network 176
5.5.3. Adaptations to climate change 177
5.6. The vulnerability of local fishing 178
Chapter 6: Conclusion 179
6.1. Economic, political and environmental changes 179
6.1.1. Economic globalization? 180
6.1.2. Political globalization? The pattern of governance and
the role of traditional policy actors 182
6.1.3. Interaction between economic and political globalization:
Governance by the state and the market 184
6.1.4. Is globalization a key determinant of change? 186
6.1.5. Is globalization a key determinant of social vulnerability
and adaptive capacity? 188
6.1.6. Climate change 190
6.2. Conclusion: Summary of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and types
of adaptation in the areas 192
Notes 197
References 231
Index 247
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
1.1 Simplified diagram depicting multiple-level impacts on
adaptive capacity 30
2.1 Map of the northernmost parts of Norway, Sweden and Finland,
with main case study locations marked 48
2.2 Maps illustrating projected average temperature increases
for 2020 and 2050 55
3.1 Multi-level governance of forestry 83
4.1 Multi-level governance of reindeer herding 129
5.1 Multi-level governance of fishing 166
Tables
1.1 Determinants of adaptive capacity 21
1.2 Indicators of adaptive capacity 22
3.1 Main perceived changes, adaptations and limits on adaptation
in forestry 84
3.2 Main sensitivities and adaptations to climatic changes emphasized
by stakeholders 91
4.1 Main perceived changes, adaptations and limits on adaptation
in reindeer herding 130
4.2 Main emphasized climate changes and adaptations 137
5.1 Main perceived changes, adaptations and limits to adaptation
in fishing 167
5.2 Main emphasized climate change sensitivities and adaptations 174
6.1 Impacts of globalization on determinants of adaptive capacity 189