STUDIES IN THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUBLIC POLICY China’s Uneven and Combined Development Steven Rolf Studies in the Political Economy of Public Policy Series Editors Toby Carroll City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Paul Cammack University of Manchester Manchester, UK Kelly Gerard The University of Western Australia Crawley, Australia Darryl S. L. Jarvis The Education University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Studies in the Political Economy of Public Policy presents cutting edge, innovative research on the origins and impacts of public policy. Going beyond mainstream public policy debates, the series encourages heterodox and heterogeneous studies of sites of contestation, conflict and cooperation that explore policy processes and their consequences at the local, national, regional or global levels. Fundamentally pluralist in nature, the series is designed to provide high quality original research of both a theoretical and empirical nature that supports a global network of scholars exploring the implications of policy on society. The series welcomes manuscript submissions from scholars in the global South and North that pioneer new understandings of public policy. International Advisory Board Alberto Asquer, SOAS, University of London, UK Jacqui Baker, Murdoch University, Australia Caner Bakir, Koç University, Turkey Shaun Breslin, University of Warwick, UK Sydney Calkin, University of Durham, UK Paul Cammack, University of Manchester, UK Giliberto Capano, Bologna University, Italy Paul Chambers, Naresuan University, Thailand Tom Chodor, Monash University, Australia Susan Engel, University of Wollongong, Australia Paul K. Gellert, University of Tennessee, USA Barry Gills, University of Helsinki, Finland Ruben Gonzalez-Vicente, Leiden University, Netherlands Penny Griffin, University of New South Wales, Australia Samanthi Gunawardana, Monash University, Australia Pascale Hatcher, University of Canterbury, New Zealand Heng Yee Kuang, University of Tokyo, Japan Kevin Hewison, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA Wil Hout, Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, Netherlands Michael Howlett, Simon Fraser University, Canada Elizabeth Humphrys, University of Technology Sydney, Australia Kanishka Jayasuriya, Murdoch University, Australia Melissa Johnston, Monash University, Australia Zhang Jun, City University of Hong Kong, SAR, China Sung-Young Kim, Macquarie University, Australia Mustafa Kutlay, City University of London, UK Max Lane, Victoria University, Australia Tim Legrand, University of Adelaide, Australia Kun-chin Lin, University of Cambridge, UK Jorg Nowak, ERC Postdoctoral Researcher Ziya Önis¸, Koç University, Turkey Susan Park, University of Sydney, Australia Michael Peters, University of New South Wales, Australia Adrienne Roberts, University of Manchester, UK Steven Rolf, University of Sussex, UK Stuart Shields, University of Manchester, UK Richard Stubbs, McMaster University, Canada Maria Tanyag, Australian National University, Australia Silke Trommer, University of Manchester, UK Heloise Weber, University of Queensland, Australia Philippe Zittoun, Science Po, Grenoble, France More information about this series at http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/14465 Steven Rolf China’s Uneven and Combined Development Steven Rolf Digit Centre University of Sussex Brighton, UK ISSN 2524-7441 ISSN 2524-745X (electronic) Studies in the Political Economy of Public Policy ISBN 978-3-030-55558-0 ISBN 978-3-030-55559-7 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55559-7 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such namesareexemptfromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreefor general use. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinforma- tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeen made.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmaps and institutional affiliations. This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland To my mother, Sharon. Acknowledgements This work grew out of my PhD thesis which I researched at the Univer- sity of Bristol’s School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies (SPAIS) between 2012 and 2017. There, my supervisors Jeff Henderson and Adam Dixon provided invaluable guidance and support. Jeff also worked hard to secure me funding for language training and fieldwork trips, and kindly provided countless meals and drinks. My thanks to all those who helped out during my fieldwork in China, andthosewhokeptmecompanywhileworkingonthethesisandeventu- allythebook.ToSorayaandRobinforhostingmeforasignificantperiod ofthewriting.Andtomyfamily:Jeff,Dai,Jo,Dave,Mike,Sophia,Joseph and Jacob. Most of all, my gratitude and love are extended to Rosa. vii Praise for ChinasUnevenand ’ CombinedDevelopment “China’s geopolitical and economic ‘catch up’ is usually discussed in terms of a new global ‘power’ challenging an established world order or of types of capitalism—Anglo-American vs. state-capitalist, and so on— ratherthanintermsoftheintersectionbetweenglobalandnationalcapi- talisms, on the one hand, and different types of polity, on the other. In a powerful synthesis of original theoretical discussion and up-to-date detailed empirical analysis, Steve Rolf shows how much can be gained from reframing China’s startling economic trajectory of the past thirty years by highlighting dynamic processes of uneven and combined devel- opment,ratherthanthoseofstaticcomparativemodelsthatignoreneces- sary within-country as well as country-by-country differences in how economic growth takes place.” —John Agnew, Distinguished Professor of Geography, UCLA, USA “ThroughthelensoftheMarxiantheoryofunevenandcombineddevel- opment,RolfmeticulouslyweavestogetheracoherentaccountofChina’s rise from the initiation of market reform to the Belt and Road Initiative andthetradewarwiththeUS.Itshedsnewlightsonthemanycontradic- tionswithinChinaandintheglobalgeopoliticaleconomythattheChina boom brings.” —Ho-fung Hung, Henry M. & Elizabeth P. Wisenfeld Professor in Political Economy, The John Hopkins University, USA ix Contents 1 Introduction: China Shakes the World System 1 1.1 Overview 1 1.2 Theorising China’s Rise 8 References 15 2 Uneven and Combined Development and the Capitalist States System 21 2.1 Introduction 21 2.2 The Revival of Uneven and Combined Development 23 2.3 The Limits of UCD? 29 2.4 Karl Marx and Uneven Geographical Development 32 2.5 Uneven Geographical Development and States 34 2.6 The Limits to Uneven Development Theory 38 2.7 A State Theoretical Extension 42 2.8 Uneven and Combined Development: Towards a Research Programme 46 References 50 3 From Varieties of Capitalism to Uneven and Combined Development: A New Perspective 59 3.1 Introduction 59 3.2 Varieties of Capitalism and China 60 3.3 Variegated Capitalism and Its Critique 65 xi xii CONTENTS 3.4 States, Cities and Capital 71 3.5 Conclusion 78 References 80 4 China’s Boom (I): The Geopolitical Economy of Reform and Opening, 1978–2000 87 4.1 Introduction 87 4.2 The Geopolitical Economy of Cross-Border Production 89 4.3 China’s ‘Historical Backwardness’ and the ‘Whip of External Necessity’ 95 4.4 Politics of Reform and Opening 98 4.5 The WTO and the Revival of Statist Politics 112 4.6 Conclusion 115 References 117 5 China’s Boom (II): Making the ‘Leap’, 2001–2008 125 5.1 Introduction 125 5.2 The SOA Concept and Its Relationship with China’s UCD 127 5.3 China’s Leap, 2001–2008: (1) The Export Sector 128 5.4 China’s Leap 2001–2008 (2): The State Sector 153 5.5 The Intertwinement of State and Private Sector 157 5.6 Conclusion 161 References 163 6 The ‘Rebalancing’ Fallacy: 2008 and Its Aftermath 171 6.1 Introduction 171 6.2 The Effects of the Crisis of 2008 in China 172 6.3 China’s ‘Rebalancing’: Contrasting Theories 174 6.4 Rebalancing Policies 184 6.5 Rebalancing and the ‘Middle-Income Trap’ 189 6.6 Summary 198 References 199 7 The State Resurgent 207 7.1 Introduction 207 7.2 The State Resurgent 208 7.3 The Real Estate Boom 215