China and the Future of Globalization PDF
Preview China and the Future of Globalization
China and the Future of Globalization China and the Future of Globalization The Political Economy of China’s Rise Grzegorz W. Kolodko I.B. TAURIS Bloomsbury Publishing Plc 50 Bedford Square, London, WC1B 3DP, UK 1385 Broadway, New York, NY 10018, USA BLOOMSBURY, I.B. TAURIS and the I.B. Tauris logo are trademarks of Bloomsbury Publishing Plc First published in Great Britain 2020 Copyright © Grzegorz W. Kolodko, 2020 Grzegorz W. Kolodko has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as Author of this work. Translated by Joanna Luczak Cover design by Holly Bell All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publishers. Bloomsbury Publishing Plc does not have any control over, or responsibility for, any third-party websites referred to or in this book. All internet addresses given in this book were correct at the time of going to press. The author and publisher regret any inconvenience caused if addresses have changed or sites have ceased to exist, but can accept no responsibility for any such changes. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN: HB: 978-1-7883-1549-4 PB: 978-1-7883-1550-0 ePDF: 978-1-7883-1552-4 eBook: 978-1-7883-1551-7 Typeset by Integra Software Services Pvt. Ltd. To find out more about our authors and books visit www.bloomsbury.com and sign up for our newsletters. To my Chinese friends as a heartening message. And as a warning. Contents List of Diagrams ix List of Tables x List of Maps xi Initial Reflections 1 1 Economy and security 5 1. Cold War Two 5 2. Cascade of threats 16 3. Technology and politics 22 2 The Century of Asia with China Leading the Way? 27 1. A country in the middle of Asia 27 2. New Silk Road instead of exporting revolution 32 3. Nobody likes a hard landing 41 3 People and Goods in the Changing World 55 1. Between a demographic explosion and a population deficit 55 2. How long, how fast? 65 3. Where is the East, where is the West? 73 4. Myth of the free market being perfect 83 4 Socialism, Capitalism or Chinism? 89 1. Economy – society – state 89 2. In search of equilibrium 99 3. Socialism with Chinese characteristics or corrupt crony capitalism? 109 4. Whither China and what business is it of others 124 5. Tertium datur 130 Contents viii 5 Recipe for Crisis 133 1. At the expense of many for the benefit of few 133 2. Legally but immorally 137 6 What Do the Chinese Ask About? 141 1. Right questions at the right time 141 2. What students want to know 142 3. Chinese panoply of questions 145 7 New Pragmatism with Chinese Characteristics 149 1. Vision rather than illusions 149 2. 16+1 initiative 152 3. China coming to our rescue? 156 Final Reflections 163 Notes 166 References 173 Index 184 1 Changes in major military powers’ defense spending (percentage increase between 2007 and 2016) 7 2 US–China trade between 1985 and 2017 (in USD billions) 10 3 Wealth distribution around the world between 2010 and 2020 (1 percent vs. 99 percent) 18 4 Doomsday Clock. How many minutes to midnight? 19 5 Share of China, India, the United States and the European Union in the GWP (at PPP) 43 6 Runaway China, and India trying to catch up. National income growth between 1980 and 2018 (GDP 1980 = 100) 45 7 Runaway China, and India trying to catch up. Per capita income growth (at PPP, 2011 international dollars) 46 8 Runaway China, Poland trying to catch up and Russia lagging behind against the backdrop of the world economic crisis (GDP 1989 = 100) 47 9 Population of China, India, Nigeria and the United States between 1950 and 2100 (in billions) 56 10 Producer’s market and shortages vs. consumer’s market and surpluses 102 11 Stagflation and shortageflation 105 12 On the other side of the looking glass, or moving from the inflation-shortage alternative to the inflation- unemployment alternative 107 13 Agricultural population in China between 1996 and 2016 (in millions) 119 14 Changes in democracy index between 2006 and 2017 121 15 Who likes China? Percentage of people expressing a favorable opinion about China 157 Diagrams
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